The crises of a crisis: The impact of Covid-19 on localised decarbonisation ambitions in the United Kingdom.

Responding to crises leads to a shift in priorities and actions, with this affecting the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions. This paper contributes to understandings of governing crises by exploring the tension between short-term crisis response and the achievement of longer-term policy goals, through the discussion of the Covid-19 pandemic and localised decarbonisation ambitions in Greater Manchester. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, Greater Manchester outlined ambitions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2038 through the use of a place-based approach. Greater Manchester has been subject to a range of lockdown restrictions throughout the pandemic, with all aspects of society being impacted including decarbonisation ambitions. Thus providing a useful case study for understanding the impact that Covid-19 has had on the development and implementation of Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions. Within this focus is placed on the opportunities and constraints experienced. A total of 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders associated with Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions between October 2020 and April 2021. Stakeholders interviewed included regional and local government, academics, community organisations, non-profit organisations and activist groups. Novel insights obtained through the stakeholder interviews highlight how Covid-19 has simultaneously constrained and provided opportunities for decarbonisation in Greater Manchester. Based upon the experiences of the stakeholders interviewed, 4 crises which have affected the achievement of longer-term decarbonisation ambitions have been identified - a communication crisis, an engagement crisis, a participation crisis and crises of temporality. The crises identified and discussed either emerged or intensified as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although these crises are discussed in relation to the impact of Covid-19 on decarbonisation, the learnings identified can be applied to other crises and long-term strategic ambitions.

Introduction

The Covid-19 pandemic had an unprecedented impact on society, worsening long-standing gender, race, age and income inequalities [1]. As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, an estimated 8.8 % of total working hours were lost in 2020 [2]. Furthermore, relative to the previous year total global employment fell by 114 million in 2020 - had there been no pandemic it was estimated that there would have been around 30 million new jobs created in 2020 [2]. The impact of these unemployment trends was not felt uniformly throughout society; those on informal contracts were three times more likely to lose their job and their informal status means they were less likely to benefit from social protection [2]. It is estimated that an additional 150 million people will be forced into extreme poverty as a result of the pandemic [3]. Disadvantaged groups entered the crisis with “lower resilience as a result of disparities in well-being; financial stability and security; and access to healthcare, education and technology” [1].

Research has shown how the Covid-19 pandemic widened gender disparities as women undertook more housework, caring and teaching responsibilities than men [4], [5]. Constraints on social interaction during periods of lockdown throughout the pandemic and associated perceptions of social isolation had negative consequences on psychological well-being. A survey completed by 309 adults showed that respondents who perceived themselves as socially isolated had lower life satisfaction, higher stress levels and reported higher levels of substance use as a coping mechanism [6]. The economic and long-term health impacts of the pandemic are likely to continue to have further consequences on society and affect future responses to other key threats and crises [1].

Global crises are likely to become more common in the coming decades. A key driver of future crises is climate change. Climate change is a risk multiplier meaning “it has the potential to exacerbate other drivers of insecurity” [7]. Currently, 40 % of the world's population live in places that are ‘highly vulnerable to climate change’ [8]. Extreme weather events caused by climate change, including droughts, floods and heatwaves, have the potential to cause political instability, conflict and mass displacement [1], [9]. Climate change can also affect public health as a result of cardiovascular and respiratory issues from smoke inhalation, the spread of diseases such as cholera due to flooding and rainfall, or trauma-induced mental-health issues associated with living through extreme weather events and the loss of livelihood and culture [8].

These climate-induced risks and crises have been identified in the World Economic Forum's 2021 Global Risks Report [1]. Within this report, infectious diseases and environmental risks such as climate action failure, biodiversity loss and natural resource crises are considered to be the most likely risks over the next decade [1]. Other projected risks include livelihood crises, digital inequality, IT and the erosion of societal cohesion [1]. Similar risks were outlined in the UK's Risk Register such as environmental hazards, human and animal health, major accidents, societal risks, malicious attacks and risks occurring overseas [10]. The increased likelihood of these risks and potential crises demonstrates the value in considering learnings from the experience of the Covid-19 pandemic and health crisis.

Responding to crises leads to a shift in priorities and actions. Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic resources were reallocated to focus on monitoring and reducing the spread of the virus, supporting those who caught Covid-19 and establishing new ‘Covid-safe’ practices [11]. In the 2020/21 financial year, health-related Covid-19 public spending in England totalled £52.4 billion including £22 billion spent on developing a test and trace system, £15.2 billion spent on PPE and £2.7 billion spent on vaccine procurement [12]. The UK Government has also invested more than £88 million to support the development of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine [13]. The reallocation of resources, shifting priorities and restrictions introduced had a number of impacts. For example, non-emergency medical procedures were postponed with this contributing to a growing backlog of NHS care and treatment; 5 % of all current NHS patients will wait over a year for the treatment they need [14]. Large infrastructure projects have also been delayed including HS2, Crossrail and Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station [15]. The prioritisation of crisis response has affected the development and achievement of longer-term policy goals, such as healthcare targets and large-scale infrastructure projects.

This paper contributes to understandings of governing crises by exploring the tension between short-term crisis response and the achievement of longer-term policy goals, framing understandings in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic and localised decarbonisation ambitions in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom. The paper considers how crises impact the achievement of long-term policy ambitions, by answering the question “to what extent has Covid-19 affected the development and implementation of Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions?”. The discussion is framed around crises that emerged or were intensified as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ways they have affected the achievement of decarbonisation ambitions. This paper does not engage with the idea of, or approaches to, crisis management, rather the focus is on the impact of crisis on the everyday governance of longer-term policy ambitions. Consideration is given to how you balance shorter-term crisis response with longer-term policy ambitions. The projected increase in crises in the future demonstrates the value of these learnings. As outlined by the World Economic Forum [1], “if lessons from this crisis [Covid-19] only inform decision-makers how to better prepare for the next pandemic—rather than enhancing risk processes, capabilities and culture—the world will be again planning for the last crisis rather than anticipating the next”.

The paper opens with a brief introduction to the case study of Greater Manchester. This is followed by a literature review which provides foundational understandings to support the research presented. Topics covered within the literature review include engagement with crisis, the scales of crisis response and the future impacts of crises and their responses. The methodology of the research is then detailed, followed by the results based upon the interview data collected. The analysis section is composed of 4 sections which discuss the crises which have affected the long-term strategic ambition of achieving decarbonisation: 1) communication, 2) engagement, 3) participation and 4) temporality. The paper closes with concluding thoughts and learnings for how to balance short-term crisis response and longer-term policy ambitions.

Introducing and justifying Greater Manchester

This research focuses on how Covid-19 affected the development and implementation of Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions. Greater Manchester is a city region made up of ten Local Authorities located in the North West of England. The city region is governed by Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) and has an elected metro mayor. Greater Manchester has outlined an ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2038 [16]. To support the achievement of this ambition, 5 strategic ‘missions’ have been established, namely sustainable consumption and production; low carbon buildings; energy innovation; natural capital; transport; and communication and behaviour change [17]. The city region's 5-year environment plan (2019–2024) outlines actions to be undertaken to address these ‘missions’ and progress on the 2038 carbon neutrality ambition [16]. An underlying tenet of Greater Manchester's approach to decarbonisation and achieving carbon neutrality is that everyone has a role to play [16]. Consequently, there are a range of stakeholders supporting the low-carbon agenda in the City Region, undertaking action at different scales with different foci depending on their motivations, resources and priorities.

Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders associated with Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions were conducted to understand how the Covid-19 pandemic affected the development and implementation of actions to support the achievement of long-term decarbonisation ambitions. Direct engagement with stakeholders meant the diverse impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the achievement of localised decarbonisation ambitions could be identified. The interviews show that Covid-19 has simultaneously hampered decarbonisation plans and opened up new possibilities. The understandings developed through this research provide insight on how learnings from the Covid-19 crisis can help ensure crisis response and long-term policy ambitions are balanced in the future. Learnings related to processes and experiences can be applied to other contexts and crises.

Literature review

Crises are defined as “an event that has the potential to cause a large detrimental change to the social system and in which there is a lack of proportionality between cause and consequence” [18]. There is a ‘real’ and ‘socially constructed’ dimension to crises – ‘real’ in terms of actual changes to social processes and ‘socially constructed’ in terms of varied interpretations of the crisis [18]. In discussing the economic crisis of 2008, [18] contends that the crisis was composed of several interlinked phases – the financial crash, the deep economic recession, the austerity measures imposed and then the political crisis as governments faced fragmentation and restructuring. Another conceptualisation of crisis outlines how a crisis can contribute to the establishment or exacerbation of other crises – “a crisis within a crisis” [19]. Both of these conceptualisations of crisis are drawn upon within this research.

The literature presented in this section provides foundational insights and context for the empirical research discussed. We begin by outlining literature related to how crises and long-term strategic ambitions are communicated to support public engagement. This is followed by discussion of the scales at which crisis response and decarbonisation action occurs. Finally, the impact of crises on future configurations of society and practices, focusing on the achievement of low-carbon societies, is discussed.

Engaging with crises: the case of Covid-19

Both responding to crises and achieving longer-term strategic ambitions are dependent on the establishment of plans and the provision of appropriate policy and support. The presentation of crisis response and longer-term strategic ambitions influence their achievement. As ideas about the future can be powerful drivers of action [20], imaginaries and visions can be drawn upon to support the articulation of ambitions and required actions. Visions are representations of how things might or could or should be [21] and support the establishment of material interventions which facilitate their achievement [22]. Imaginaries and visions are developed within particular contexts and practices [23], increasing the tangibility of the futures outlined [23], [24]. These imaginaries are drawn upon to develop narratives around the crisis and long-term strategic ambitions.

During moments of crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, narratives can help people comprehend events [25] by "giving shape to things in the world around them" [26]. The use of narratives can support the mobilisation of individuals around the actions required [27]. As a common goal is outlined it brings clarity to the required actions and catalyses stakeholders to undertake these actions [28]. The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted that when “humanity is united in a common cause, phenomenally rapid change is possible” [29]. Throughout the pandemic, a common narrative was established which supported individuals to “reconfigure their lives, their habits and their spending patterns at speed and scale” [30]. The societal shift in practices during the Covid-19 pandemic was a product of governments implementing policies to reduce the spread of infection [31] and society engaging with them. The success of individuals engaging with the strategies developed is in part a product of the effective communication and buy-in of ambitions.

The “Christmas Effect” discussed by Sedgwick [32] describes how major parts of Western society comes together and speaks with “one voice” over the Christmas period; by having institutions share a common narrative it can have profound influence on behaviour patterns. Sovacool, Del Rio and Griffiths [33] apply this to Covid-19, commenting that having a range of institutions and actors, including national government, local authorities, businesses, and faith groups, broadcast narratives of social distancing and staying at home contributed to individuals adopting these behaviours. The importance of establishing a common narrative is highlighted in research conducted in Australia, which showed how the inability of the governments to define and articulate a coherent narrative around a low-carbon energy future has constrained Australia's sustainable energy transition and led to contradictory and disjointed outcomes [34].

Re-scaling the response to crises

Responses to Covid-19 have been situated at multiple scales. From a governance perspective, there has been a process of glocalisation whereby regulatory arrangements have shifted from the national scale upwards to supra-national or global scales, and downwards to the individual or local scales, as well as networks becoming simultaneously more localised and transnational [35]. These processes were occurring before the pandemic but were intensified to support responses to the pandemic; Covid-19 has manifested global action but has also seen responsibility for the implementation of action placed on individuals and local scales. Rescaling is a product of 3 relational processes: 1) politicisation where there is a disruption of established power relations and ideological systems 2) enrolment which sees the involvement of a range of different actors in different places and networks and 3) hybridisation which acknowledges the human and non-human agencies that underpin socio-material entanglements [36].

There are multiple benefits associated with re-scaling action to more localised levels, whether that be in response to the Covid-19 pandemic or to mitigate climate change through decarbonisation processes. To achieve systemic change, there is a need to engage a diverse range of stakeholders and ensure there is an alignment of their interests and ambitions [37], [38]. Establishing a local narrative for responses helps with comprehension and the alignment of individuals with the overarching ambitions [39]. By focusing action at more localised scale it helps establish coherence and coordination across plans and investments [40] and means that the approaches developed reflect the unique context of place [41]. The need to consider specific place-based insights is critical when developing approaches as through this the “significance of meaningful and affective relationships embedded within place are understood and, where possible taken into account” [41]. Furthermore, the impact of crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic, affects different places differently meaning that they will require different responses [42].

Crises and longer-term ambitions

Research has considered the potential impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the achievement of longer-term decarbonisation ambitions, including both opportunities and constraints. Many of the impacts identified are situated at more localised scales, reflecting the re-scaling which occurred during the pandemic as outlined above.

Throughout the pandemic, assumptions about society and ways of life have been questioned, providing opportunities for systemic and structural changes in socio-economic systems that support the establishment of a low-carbon society [31]. The impact of lockdowns on carbon emissions and pollution levels demonstrates the impact that shifts in societal practices can have in relation to achieving low-carbon societies [43]. When mining activity was suspended in Upper Silesia, Poland to minimise infection rates it triggered a debate on the future of the mining industry and the energy transition more broadly [44]; the pandemic has the potential to influence the mining industry in both the short- and long-term. A range of national and local governments are drawing upon experiences of Covid-19 to develop policies that intend to structurally reinforce some of the positive trends that emerged [45]. For example, London has developed a scenario that sees active travel (walking and cycling) increasing ten-fold in the post-pandemic period [46]. When individuals are encouraged to practice certain behaviours over an extended time period, these behaviours are more likely to become new norms or habits [47].

However, research has also outlined how the Covid-19 pandemic has constrained progress on achieving more sustainable, low-carbon societies. Focusing on shifting mobility practices, Kanda and Kivimaa [31] discuss how the Covid-19 pandemic has negatively affected the development of ‘new’ modes of mobility, such as ‘mobility-as-a-service’. ‘Mobility-as-a-service’ revolves around shared mobility solutions, offering multiple transport modes and mobility packages, and is presented as an alternative to the private ownership of fossil-fuel powered vehicles [31]. Progress on developing the concept of Mobility-as-a-Service was negatively affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, as the fundamental aspects of Mobility-as-a-Service contradicted the safety precautions associated with the pandemic, such as social distancing and reducing travel [31]. Thus, the pandemic has seen the adoption of practices that both support and counter decarbonisation ambitions.

Existing research has considered how the use of narratives facilitates action addressing crises, the benefits (and constraints) of localised responses to crises, and the forward-looking implications of crises on societal norms and practices. Building upon the understandings presented in the literature review, this paper aims to develop understandings of the relationship between crises and the achievement of longer-term policy ambitions. More specifically, the impact of Covid-19 (a global health crisis) on Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions (a longer-term strategic ambition) is analysed to develop insights. Based upon the insights developed, future learnings for balancing shorter-term crisis response and longer-term policy ambitions are developed. The following section outlines the methodology adopted to develop these understandings.

Methodology

A total of 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders associated with Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions between October 2020 and April 2021. During the interviews, participants were asked to reflect on the extent to which they believed the Covid-19 pandemic had affected Greater Manchester's low-carbon ambitions and the city region's progress on achieving decarbonisation. Throughout the pandemic, a number of pandemic-induced restrictions were implemented in Greater Manchester with these restrictions affecting practices and behaviours within the city region. The presence of these restrictions coupled with Greater Manchester's ambitions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2038 provide the justification for using the city as a case study to understand the impact of Covid-19 on the longer-term policy ambition of decarbonisation.

Although focusing on a single case study could be considered a limitation of the research as it is more difficult to generalise findings, the use of a single case study enabled the development of rich insight on experiences and perceptions. Focusing solely on Greater Manchester enabled the impact of the pandemic within that specific context to be considered, as well as how these impacts were addressed and the potential future implications of these impacts. Conducting interviews with a range of stakeholders provided insight into the diversity of perspectives that are held in relation to Covid-19 and decarbonisation, illuminating tensions between politics, power, hegemony and dominant discourses [48].

Participant recruitment predominantly occurred through purposive sampling, whereby individuals were approached who have knowledge and experience of Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions (Table 1 ) [49]. Snowball sampling also occurred as a result of participants recommending other individuals to interview, and in some circumstances enabling these connections. Snowball sampling “relies on and partakes in the dynamics of natural and organic social networks” as new participants are accessed through interaction with other participants [50].

Table 1

Table providing a breakdown of the characteristics of the stakeholders interviewed, including their code and total count.

Characteristic	Code	Count
Academics	A	3
Activist groups	ACT	4
Regional government	RG	2
Local authorities	LA	5
Community organisations/charities/not-for-profit organisations	C	4
Asset owners (including utilities, housing and energy generation)	AO	4

When developing questions for the semi-structured interviews, understandings from existing research, initial findings from this research and hypotheses about the phenomena under study were incorporated [51]. The conceptual framing of this research, namely crises, place-based energy governance and decarbonisation, also informed the interview questions developed. The questions asked during the semi-structured interviews influenced the coding of the interview transcripts, as discussed later in this section. Follow-up questions were used to gain a deeper understanding of the points made by interview participants [52], particularly points related to the overarching research questions. During the interviews, follow-up questions were used to obtain further information related to the engagement with decarbonisation during the Covid-19 pandemic, the impact of time and scale on achieving decarbonisation ambitions and what participants expected the future for decarbonisation to be. Quotes from previous interviews were also used as a prompt during the interviews. By presenting anonymised quotes from other participants, it brought participants into an artificial dialogue, and helped highlight both diverging and converging opinions.

Due to the Covid-19 restrictions in place when undertaking the research, interviews were conducted online using Zoom. Web conferencing systems such as Zoom became a mainstream communication channel throughout the pandemic and facilitated interactions that would not have taken place otherwise [53]. Interviews can be considered a ‘conversation with a purpose’ [54]. Using the video feature of Zoom facilitated the flow of the conversation and mirrored the interactions that would occur in face-to-face research. The use of video facilitated trust-building [55] and enabled verbal and non-verbal cues to be observed [56], [57]. Research has highlighted a number of advantages of using online interview methodologies including both cost- and time-savings, and increased flexibility for both researcher and participant thus increasing the likelihood of an interview being arranged [58]. Additional benefits experienced during our research included the sharing of internet links to useful resources and providing the spelling of phrases/names through the chat function. However, there are drawbacks to online interviews such as the structure of discussions being affected by lagging internet and disruptions [59]. The ability to conduct online interviews also requires participants to have a certain level of technical competence [60]. Fortunately, individuals had become accustomed to using web conferencing platforms throughout the pandemic in both their work life and personal life [53], meaning this potential barrier was not experienced during the research. The interviews were recorded and later transcribed to support the analysis.

NVivo was used to support the analysis of the transcribed interviews. Rather than taking an inductive grounded theory approach where all codes are emergent and generated based solely on the data, a more ‘abductive’ approach was taken as the codes were sensitised by previous research [61]. This abductive analysis was supported, and influenced, by the interview questions developed. The abductive analysis of the interview transcripts occurred through two stages; the first stage involved the identification of initial ‘index’ codes whilst the second stage focused on deeper ‘analytic’ coding [61]. The ‘index’ codes were identified first, assigned to larger segments of text and captured the broader themes discussed through the interview questions [61]. The ‘index’ codes identified include ‘Covid-19’, ‘Scale’, ‘Responses’, ‘Impact’, and ‘Opportunity’. Following this initial ‘index’ analysis, deeper ‘analytic’ coding occurred [61] with lower-level emergent themes being identified such as ‘delayed action’, ‘engagement’, and ‘priorities’ - similar codes were combined to provide further themes beyond those underpinning the interview questions. Upon identifying both ‘index’ and ‘analytic’ codes, cross-respondent analysis occurred allowing trends and patterns to be identified. The analysis highlighted how different stakeholders perceive Covid-19 to have impacted Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions, providing insight into the impact of the pandemic on the achievement of the longer-term strategic ambition.

Although the research focuses on the impact of Covid-19 on Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions, the significance of the paper and its discussion lies in crises and how they affect the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions. Based upon this research, learnings are identified for balancing short-term crisis response and longer-term strategic ambitions in the future.

Results

This section discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected the development and implementation of Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions, drawing upon this example to consider how crises affect the achievement of longer-term policy ambitions. The insights presented are based upon reflections made by interview participants between October 2020 and July 2021 when the Covid-19 pandemic was ‘on-going’ with periods of lockdown enforced and restrictions in place.

Crises can be understood as a series of interlinked phases [18], as well as being nested within each other [19]. Engaging with these conceptualisations of crises we present how the Covid-19 pandemic was itself a health crisis, but also intensified and triggered crises relating to the communication of, engagement with, participation in and temporalities of achieving decarbonisation ambitions. To support and substantiate the arguments presented, reference is made to other past, current, and likely future crises to demonstrate how the ideas and learnings presented are applicable to other contexts.

The section is structured around four crises which emerged or were intensified during the Covid-19 pandemic and have affected the achievement of decarbonisation ambitions in Greater Manchester: 1) a communication crisis, 2) an engagement crisis, 3) a participation crisis and 4) crises of temporalities. Following this results section, learnings from the case of Covid-19 and decarbonisation for how to approach future crises are outlined.

“There's hardly anything else that that gets discussed”: a communication crisis

Crises and their responses shift the focus away from other topics and strategic ambitions [62]. The omnipresence of Covid-19 narratives throughout the pandemic acted as a barrier to raising awareness of Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions and the actions which need to be undertaken. Consequently, a communication crisis emerged in relation to the articulation of longer-term policy ambitions, including decarbonisation. As commented by a policy officer within a Greater Manchester Local Authority, “all of the communication stuff is about coronavirus you know, there's hardly anything else that gets discussed so getting green issues in there is quite difficult” (LA1). The pervasiveness of Covid-19 in public consciousness and media coverage was discussed in Busch and Hansen's [63] research as a barrier to discussion of climate mitigation.

The impact of dominant Covid-19 narratives on the achievement of decarbonisation ambitions is particularly pertinent in the case of Greater Manchester as a key tenet of the city region's decarbonisation approach is "everybody has a role to play" [16]. Consequently, achieving decarbonisation ambitions is dependent on these different stakeholders having an awareness of the ambitions and the actions they are expected to undertake. Clear communication of ambitions and the means to achieve them helps catalyse action [28] and supports the alignment of stakeholders [39]. Yet, the dominance of Covid-19 within the media and broader society during the pandemic limited the space for other issues to be discussed. As a result of this Greater Manchester's decarbonisation ambitions were not clearly communicated, with this reducing opportunities for collective action around the issue.

The communication of long-term decarbonisation ambitions has also been affected by changes in the mobility patterns of individuals in Greater Manchester throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. The restrictions implemented to reduce the spread of Covid-19, such as working from home and the closure of non-essential businesses and services, resulted in less people being in the city centre to engage with ‘traditional’ communication material of “posters, prints and things on buses” (RG1). During the first national lockdown in April 2020, footfall within Manchester City Centre fell by 89.2 % compared to the previous year [64]. In response to the shifting mobilities as a result of Covid-19 pandemic GMCA's communication channels became more digital, enabling messages to reach individuals who had become more remote in their day-to-day lives. An interview participant from GMCA commented that they had “probably taken a leap forward of probably three to five years” in how they approach communicating with the public as a result of having to shift away from using posters, print and things on buses to raise awareness (RG1). However, there is the need to consider the potential barriers associated with focusing solely on digital communication and engagement methods as they are “naturally a bit more exclusive as not everyone will have access to have the technical expertise or kit to do it” (ACT1). This demonstrates the privilege associated with accessing online resources and the importance of not depending solely on digital approaches. There is a need to ensure that information is made accessible to all members of society if collective action is to be achieved [65]. If individuals are not able to engage with digital forms of communication about decarbonisation ambitions they will not be able to participate [48].

The impact of crises on the messages shared and the means through which they are shared shows how longer-term policy ambitions, such as decarbonisation, can be affected by crises. There is the need to simultaneously respond to crises and undertake action on longer-term ambitions, requiring a greater balance in how these two objectives are communicated. Without a more balanced approach to communication, there is the risk that longer-term ambitions will not be achieved which may contribute to the emergence of future crises. For example, the achievement of decarbonisation ambitions will mitigate the impact of climate change and help avoid or reduce the intensity of climate-related crises. Although alternative communication approaches were developed to overcome barriers presented by the pandemic, there is the need to be mindful that these are not a perfect solution and to be aware of social groups who may not be able to engage through digital means - these understandings can be applied to future engagement events for longer-term policy ambitions.

“They're not sufficiently engaged and not in the right space to do it”: an engagement crisis

Mobilising collective action around decarbonisation in Greater Manchester requires more than simply articulating ambitions and how to achieve them, rather there is also the need to undertake engagement activities to ensure that individuals align with the actions required. Opportunities to engage individuals and facilitate participation in actions which support the achievement of long-term decarbonisation ambitions were affected by the pandemic. Consequently, the Covid-19 pandemic can be considered to have created an engagement crisis. The restrictions and emergency measures implemented to curtail the spread of Covid-19 affected the ability to organise engagement events focused on decarbonisation in Greater Manchester - ‘traditional’ means for raising awareness of initiatives and engaging individuals with the strategies were no longer possible. Engagement events are critical for supporting processes of decarbonisation and serve a range of purposes, including raising awareness of climate change, supporting sustainable behaviour changes, highlighting opportunities, and providing a space for discussion and learning [66].

Participants working within Local Authorities commented that a range of intended engagement activities were affected by Covid-19, including citizen assemblies, township forums and general project engagement, commenting “it's become impossible really with the coronavirus” and that “the community engagement side of things has been knocked out of the park” (LA1). Effective engagement is highlighted as a critical component of low-carbon decarbonisation projects, with the lack of engagement caused by the pandemic affecting progress. As discussed by a participant that oversees the low-carbon projects for a housing association, “one of the key factors in a successful project is getting that really good tenant engagement, getting that buy-in for any renewable energy scheme” (AO1). As traditional methods of engagement and trust-building have not been possible during the pandemic, participants have commented that this was affecting progress on projects situated within individuals' homes (AO1, C3). However, comments made during the interviews suggest that the lack of engagement events was a temporary impact of the pandemic, shown through the inclusion of phrases such as “for the moment” and “just now”, and that once possible these events would recommence.

The achievement of longer-term policy ambitions, including decarbonisation ambitions, is dependent on individuals engaging with the associated ideas and practices. The Covid-19 pandemic affected the ability for engagement events to be organised, which in turn has impacted awareness of decarbonisation ambitions. Within this it highlights how crises can impact progress being made on longer-term policy ambitions by disrupting planned actions.

“Everyone's time and energies have been focused elsewhere really”: a participation crisis

The Covid-19 pandemic affected the extent to which undertaking decarbonisation actions is considered a priority for individuals, with this in turn reducing participation in relevant actions. The detrimental impact of Covid-19 on the public's perceptions of decarbonisation was evaluated in a piece of research conducted by Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA). A participant that works for GMCA on environment and low carbon issues outlined the findings of this research, commenting that before the pandemic the low-carbon agenda was considered a key priority, but during the pandemic this was no longer the case. When considering the reason for the shifting prioritisation of undertaking decarbonisation actions within the City Region, the participant reflected that “[low-carbon] is less of a priority to them because their social circumstances have changed” (RG1). Other participants also reflected on how the detrimental socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in the deprioritisation of low-carbon issues for individuals. For example, an individual associated with social housing in the city region commented “people may have other more immediate pressures on them like getting access to food and money and employment given the nature of what we're going through” (AO1) and a participant who works for a community energy organisation reflected that “people's attention is elsewhere at the moment” (C1). Thus, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on individuals' circumstances can be considered to have affected their priorities and perceptions.

The economic impacts of Covid-19 manifest at the level of the individual, influencing their everyday lives and experiences. UK GDP fell by 9.9 % in 2020 [67] and the unemployment rate in December 2020 was the highest in 5 years [68], despite 11.2 million jobs being retained through the Government's furlough scheme [69]. These economic consequences of the pandemic affected the socio-economic context of many individuals, which in turn affects the ability for these individuals to prioritise decarbonisation actions as discussed by participants above. Furthermore, the economic impacts of Covid-19 are not distributed equally across society, with some individuals being in more vulnerable circumstances. A participant that works for a non-profit energy organisation which supports those vulnerable to fuel poverty reflected that in order to undertake actions to support decarbonisation, many households need to address other issues first, such as poor building conditions and being in debt (C3). The Covid-19 pandemic amplified many of these issues due to job losses, furlough and spending more time at home (C3), thus creating additional actions which need to be addressed before individuals are able to participate in decarbonisation activities. Consequently, a lack of participation is not always out of choice, rather an individuals' ability to participate is affected by their personal context and priorities. For some individuals, other issues and priorities need to be addressed before they are able to engage with decarbonisation practices.

The shifting context of individuals during the Covid-19 pandemic saw them prioritise other practices over those which support the longer-term achievement of decarbonisation. The deprioritisation of longer-term policy ambitions can culminate in a participation crisis, whereby individuals do not participate in actions and initiatives to support the achievement of these ambitions. It could be argued that any crisis which affects the context of individuals will lead to them shifting their priorities and practices, and likely become unable to participate in actions to support longer-term policy ambitions. For example, the current cost of living crisis in the United Kingdom is likely to lead to similar disengagement with longer-term policy ambitions. In the UK, 87 % of households have reported an increase in their cost of living, with nearly a quarter (23 %) reporting it was “very difficult” or “difficult” to pay their usual household bills compared to a year ago [70]. In response to the increased strain on finances, households have borrowed more credit and shifted their spending practices including reducing the amount spent on food [70]. The economic crises of austerity in Greece affected the affordability of energy services and increased overall energy poverty rates, and as a consequence individuals had to shift their practices and behaviours [71], including the reduction and cessation of heating systems usage [72]. Considering the crisis-induced pressures experienced by households, it highlights why they are less likely to prioritise engaging with longer-term strategic ambitions. Consequently, consideration needs to be given to factors which may inhibit the ability for individuals to engage with longer-term strategic ambitions, particularly in the context of crises.

“A bit of a bump in the road is probably a bit of an understatement for a global pandemic”: temporal crises

The temporality of crises also has an impact on the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions. This section discusses the tension between short-term crisis responses and longer-term strategic ambitions exemplified through funding provision, and how uncertainties and precautions of crises can delay the implementation of actions that are supportive of longer-term ambitions.

The tension between short-term responses to address the Covid-19 pandemic and longer-term strategic policy ambitions (such as decarbonisation) is exemplified through funding provision. The impact of the pandemic on funding for decarbonisation activities was mentioned by local authority policy officer, when they reflected that they were struggling to fund decarbonisation projects before the pandemic, but that it is “even worse now with Covid” and that “accessing capital funding for projects is much more difficult” (LA1). The UK Government has spent more than £250 billion supporting businesses and households through the pandemic [12]. A number of tax and spending measures were introduced including the job retention ‘furlough’ scheme, increased Universal Credit payments and loan schemes for businesses [73]. The introduction of these measures will impact the amount of funding available for addressing other issues. The redirection of funding highlights how the need to quickly respond to crises, and the short-term interventions and support provided, can impact the achievement of other longer-term ambitions. Thus, consideration needs to be given to how to acknowledge and balance these conflicting demands.

The crisis of waiting has been discussed by Hall [74] in relation to Brexit; participants viewed Brexit as “a crisis waiting-to-happen” with this leading to a “slowing down and deliberate obscuring” of actions undertaken. The experience of waiting for Brexit was embodied, personal, uncertain and an irritant. In the limbo of waiting for Brexit “it is more likely for interwoven crises to occur”. Drawing upon this idea, we propose there has been a crisis of delay throughout the pandemic, with uncertainties and complexities hindering progress on achieving longer-term strategic ambitions. As commented by a local authority councillor that leads on planning and sustainable development, the restrictions introduced “slowed down the delivery” of projects (LA4). Participants cited a number of factors which contributed to delays in decarbonisation projects including the need to meet health and safety requirements, undertake social distancing and respond to positive cases. This is articulated by a local authority policy officer who focuses on climate change and environmental issues, when they commented, “I think it is much more difficult to deliver” (LA5). As a result of the restrictions and safety measures introduced “contractors have had to find ways of adapting with Covid” (LA3).

From the perspective of a participant that oversees low-carbon housing projects, “there's a lot of complications with regards to meeting Covid safe measures as well so that slows everything down” (AO1); the adaptation of decarbonisation projects to adhere with Covid-19 restrictions and safety measures is not straight-forward and has contributed to delays. For example, there was the legal responsibility for individuals to self-isolate for 10 days if they have been in close contact with someone that has tested positive for Covid-19 [75]. The isolation of workers delayed progress on infrastructural decarbonisation projects as “someone may contract Covid and then obviously there's a lockdown there” (AO1). In some circumstances, entire projects were cancelled as they were not feasible during Covid, “there's a couple of projects that I think are not going to be continuing because of Covid things like car club projects are really difficult to run during Covid” (C6). This mirrors research conducted by Kinda and Kivimaa [31] whereby mobility-as-a-service was affected by shifting norms of the pandemic.

The type of project and the individuals involved influenced the nature of delays experienced as a result of the pandemic. In the UK, individuals with characteristics that made them particularly vulnerable to Covid-19, such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, were instructed to ‘shield’ [76]. This ‘shielding’ saw individuals confined to their homes, avoiding all non-essential contact with others. Participants reflected on the impact that these ‘shielding’ practices had on the progress of projects that involved installing technologies in homes. The Solar Together Greater Manchester project focused on increasing solar PV uptake in Greater Manchester by offering the technology at a reduced price through a bulk purchase [77]. As a technology, Solar PV is particularly attractive to those who spend a lot of time at home as they are able to consume the energy being generated, with this providing the foundations to the advertising strategy of the Solar Together project. As commented by a climate policy officer within a local authority, “some of the installations happened but a lot of them were cancelled because of Covid” (LA5). These cancellations were attributed to the fact that the individuals targeted through the project, the elderly and retired, are “probably a group that don't really want people coming around their homes, because of Covid” (LA5). Similar experiences were referenced in relation to a social housing initiative to improve the efficiency of homes through the installation of technologies such as smart metres and heat pumps whereby tenants “didn’t feel comfortable having contractors in” (AO1).

Future crises are likely to cause delays to the delivery of planned projects; future infectious diseases may lead to similar restrictions being implemented, political instability may lead to issues with critical components of the supply chain, and reduced resource availability may affect the timescales of potential options. Thus, this demonstrates the value in considering the relationship between crises and delays, and the implication of these on the achievement of longer-term policy ambitions. Factoring the potential impact of crises when developing longer-term strategies could help mitigate the impact and balance the tension which exists.

Learning from crisis: concluding remarks

This paper has drawn upon the example of Covid-19 and Greater Manchester's longer-term decarbonisation ambition to reflect on how crises impact the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions. The focus of the paper has not been on crisis management, rather the governance of both responding to crises and achieving longer-term strategic ambitions.

The conceptualisations of crises as a series of interlinked phases and nested crises were used to develop and frame the discussion of this paper. Based upon the experiences of the stakeholders interviewed, four crises which have affected the achievement of longer-term decarbonisation ambitions have been identified - crises of communication, engagement, participation and temporality. The crises identified and discussed either emerged or intensified as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although these crises are discussed in relation to the impact of Covid-19 on decarbonisation, the insights can be applied to other crises and their impact on long-term strategic ambitions.

Based upon the discussions, learnings have been identified which will support the balancing of future short-term crisis responses and the achievement of longer-term ambitions. These learnings consider the crises that have emerge and are intensified by other crises (drawing upon insights from the Covid-19 health crisis), and suggest ways in which the impact of these emergent crises on the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions can be addressed.

The engagement and communication of longer-term policy ambitions needs to continue (to some extent) alongside crisis response.

When responding to crises, such as Covid-19, there is a tendency for these response narratives and strategies to dominate in societal discourse and the media. Thus, as a result of crises longer-term strategic ambitions and policy goals like decarbonisation can be knocked off the agenda. As the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions is dependent on awareness raising narratives and engagement events, there is a need to make space and continue these engagement activities alongside responding to crises. The tension between short-term and longer-term actions needs to be acknowledged and addressed, otherwise there is the risk that longer-term ambitions will not be achieved particularly due to the expected increase in prevalence and intensity of crises.

Flexible support schemes are required which accommodate for the diverse needs and contexts of individuals, and how these needs may shift in light of changing circumstances associated with crises.

The projected increase in the prevalence and intensity of crises means that greater consideration should be given to the impact of these crises on the context of individuals, and how this will affect their ability to participate in actions to support longer-term strategic ambitions such as decarbonisation. When developing approaches to achieve longer-term strategic ambitions, such as decarbonisation, learnings from the Covid-19 demonstrate the benefit of having embedded flexibility so that shifting contexts and circumstances of individuals as a result of crises do not hinder the progress of longer-term strategic ambitions.

The Covid-19 health crisis shifted the priorities and contexts of individuals and drew attention to areas that needed to be addressed to enable participants to engage with decarbonisation projects. Consequently, establishing support schemes and initiatives that help individuals address the other priorities in their lives will be supportive of decarbonisation approaches in the longer term. For example, a baseline of housing quality and comfort in Greater Manchester could be established. Addressing priorities in a strategic way can help facilitate collective actions around decarbonisation and improve accessibility of decarbonisation. Addressing conflicting priorities will support progress on other longer-term strategic ambitions as well.

Opportunities related to the shifting practices and norms emerging through crises need to be embraced.

The changes in practices and norms associated with crises may lead to opportunities arising which can be drawn upon to support the achievement of longer-term strategic ambitions. Although the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in delays to infrastructural decarbonisation projects, such as the installation of Solar PV through the Solar Together project, the continuation of home-working practices originally adopted during the pandemic opens up opportunities with relation to localised energy generation. As Solar PV is of particular benefit to those who spend time at home during the day, there is the opportunity to develop solar PV projects that engage with a different demographic to those typically targeted, such as the retired. Increasing levels of Solar PV installations would contribute to Greater Manchester's ambition of having a greater amount of localised generation [16]. However, there is a need to account for the potential risk of social divides being exacerbated as not everyone is able to work from home. By considering who is able and who is not able to work from home would help with the allocation of additional support or opportunities to those unable to work from home.

The learnings identified and their future applications are particularly important as future crises are likely to be more prevalent, and there is the need to ensure that future crisis response does not negatively affect the governance of longer-term strategic ambitions. The understandings developed through this research also highlights areas for future research, including whether stakeholders apply any lessons learnt during their experience of the Covid-19 if a future crisis hits.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.