| Literature DB >> 36231301 |
Jessie J Goldsmith1, Patricia T Campbell1,2, Juan Pablo Villanueva-Cabezas1, Rebecca H Chisholm2,3, Melita McKinnon4, George G Gurruwiwi4, Roslyn G Dhurrkay4, Alfred M Dockery5, Nicholas Geard6, Steven Y C Tong1,7, Jodie McVernon1,8, Katherine B Gibney1,7.
Abstract
Cultural practices and development level can influence a population's household structures and mixing patterns. Within some populations, households can be organized across multiple dwellings. This likely affects the spread of infectious disease through these communities; however, current demographic data collection tools do not record these data.Entities:
Keywords: aboriginal; contact patterns; disease transmission; household model; household structure; human mobility; indigenous
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 36231301 PMCID: PMC9566160 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191912002
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 4.614
Figure 1Clustering of spatial coordinates to identify distinct dwellings (n = 28). Each symbol represents a survey response. Participants with one or two responses are depicted as grey circles, all other participants (n = 8) are depicted using a unique symbol.
Figure 2Distribution of the mean number of people per dwelling by age group. Each dot represents the mean number of individuals of a specific age across all survey responses for a given dwelling. The median of the means is represented using the thick grey line and the interquartile range of the means with the thinner grey lines.
Figure 3Distribution of the number of people per dwelling for dwellings with five or more nights of data. Each dot represents the total number of individuals in each dwelling for a specific survey response. The median is represented using the thick grey line and the interquartile range with the thinner grey lines.
Figure 4Median number of mean dwelling contacts between each age category per dwelling using the CAMP-remote data. Confidence intervals of 95%, estimated with a nonparametric bootstrap method, are indicated in brackets. Age ranges were young (less than 5 years), school-aged (5–14 years) and adult (15+ years).
Figure 5Cumulative distribution of the mean number of social contacts per CAMP-remote participant (n = 13) per day. Shaded area represents 95% confidence interval.
Figure 6(a) The prevalence of infection arising from simulations of an influenza-like SEIR model under different mixing assumptions. (b) The prevalence of infection arising from simulations of an endemic disease in an SEIS model under different mixing assumptions. Both models are parameterized to reflect the study community.
A short example of the data collected on social contacts.
| Contact No. | Age group | Did They Touch You? | Did They Touch {Baby}? | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y | N | Y | N | ||
| 1 | Young child | ⊠ | □ | ⊠ | □ |
| 2 | School | □ | ⊠ | ⊠ | □ |
| 3 | Adult | □ | ⊠ | ⊠ | □ |
| 4 | Adult | □ | ⊠ | □ | ⊠ |
Dwelling Contact Matrix: Number of pre-school aged children (b), school-aged children (c) and adults (a).
| Pre-School Aged | School Aged | Adult | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| ab | ac | a (a − 1)/2 |
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| cb | c (c − 1)/2 | |
|
| b (b − 1)/2 |
Infection parameters for the outbreak and endemic disease models.
| Model | Infection Parameters | Model Inputs * |
|---|---|---|
| SEIR (outbreak) | Duration of latency | U (1, 3) days |
| Duration of infectiousness | U (1, 3) days | |
| Probability of transmission in the household/community mixing models (chosen so that the median attack rate in uniform model is ~66%) | U (0.01, 0.015) | |
| SEIS (endemic): | Duration of latency | U (1, 3) days |
| Duration of infectiousness | U (7, 21) days | |
| Probability of transmission in the household/community mixing models (chosen so that the median population prevalence at endemic equilibrium in uniform model is ~20%) | U (0.0014, 0.0021) |
* Where U(a, b) is a uniform distribution with minimum value a and maximum value b.
Travel out of the community by month.
| Season | Month | Responded | Did Not Respond | No. of Enrolled Participants | Total who Travelled out of the Community | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travelled | Did Not Travel | % | Travelling | Not Travelling | No | % | |||
| Dry | June | 2 | 8 | 20% | - | - | 10 | 2 | 20% |
| July | 1 | 4 | 20% | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 25% | |
| August | 1 | 6 | 14% | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 30% | |
| September | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0% | |
| October | 3 | 2 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 50% | |
| Wet | November | 3 | 1 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 63% |
| December | 3 | 2 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 50% | |
| January | 2 | 4 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 25% | |
| February | 0 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0% | |
| March | 3 | 4 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 38% | |
| April | 1 | 2 | 33% | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 13% | |
| Dry | May | 3 | 3 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
Statistics from model scenarios of outbreaks and endemic disease for a community like the study community including total outbreak duration, attack rate and endemic prevalence.
| Disease Model | Mixing Model | Outbreak Duration (Days) | Final Size (Number Infected) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5p | 25p | 50p | 75p | 97.5p | 2.5p | 25p | 50p | 75p | 97.5p * | ||
| SEIR | HH | 30 | 36 | 41 | 45.5 | 56 | 2421 | 2472 | 2483 | 2487 | 2492 |
| SEIR | HH (ABS) | 36 | 43.5 | 49 | 55 | 69 | 2246 | 2386 | 2432 | 2457 | 2478 |
| SEIR | U | 34.5 | 89 | 107 | 134 | 220.5 | 45 | 1151 | 1638 | 1938 | 2211 |
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| SEIS | HH | 52.0% | 63.3% | 70.3% | 75.3% | 80.7% | |||||
| SEIS | HH (ABS) | 43.3% | 57.1% | 65.5% | 70.9% | 76.6% | |||||
| SEIS | U | 0.2% | 2.8% | 19.0% | 31.7% | 44.9% | |||||
* The probability of transmission under each of the three scenarios was assumed to be consistent. SEIR: (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) transmission model. SEIS: (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Susceptible) transmission model. HH: Household/community mixing model. U: Uniform mixing model. ABS: Australian Bureau of Statistics. p: percentile.