| Literature DB >> 36229731 |
Qin Chen1.
Abstract
Recently, sustainability of tourism growth has become an international issue due to environmental and economic uncertainty that needs recent researchers' focus and also requires the policymakers' attention. Therefore, the present research has examined the role of economic and environmental factors and tourism policy related to tourist arrival on the sustainability of tourism growth in China. The economic factor includes the gross domestic product (GDP), national income, and foreign direct investment (FDI), while environmental factors include carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and nitrous oxide emission. The study has extracted the data from World Development Indicators (WDI) from 1990 to 2020. The present research has employed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lagged (NARDL) to check the linkage among variables. The current study also examines the unit root using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The results revealed that GDP, national income, tourism policy related to tourist arrival, and FDI have a positive linkage with the sustainability of tourism growth. The results also exposed that environmental factors such as CO2 emission, GHG emission, and nitrous oxide emission have a negative linkage with the sustainability of tourism growth. This study provides the guidelines to the relevant authorities and regulators in developing and implementing the regulators regarding the sustainability of tourism growth by promoting economic and environmental conditions and effective tourism policies in the country.Entities:
Keywords: CO2 emission; Greenhouse gas emission; Gross domestic product; National income; Nitrous oxide emission; Sustainability of tourism growth; Tourism policy
Year: 2022 PMID: 36229731 PMCID: PMC9560725 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22925-w
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ISSN: 0944-1344 Impact factor: 5.190
Fig. 1Tourism Growth in China
Variables with measurements
| Variables | Measurement | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Sustainability of tourism growth | International tourism expenditures (% of total import) | WDI |
| GDP | GDP growth (annual percentage) | WDI |
| FDI | Net inflow (% of GDP) | WDI |
| National income | NNI (annual % growth) | WDI |
| Tourism policy | International tourist, number of arrivals | WDI |
| CO2 emission | CO2 damage (% of GNI) | WDI |
| GHG emission | GHG emission (% change from 1990) | WDI |
| Nitrous oxide emission | NO emission (% change from 1990) | WDI |
Descriptive statistics
| Variable | Obs | Mean | Std. Dev | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TG | 31 | 8.978 | 4.738 | 2.766 | 16.652 |
| GDP | 31 | 9.116 | 2.774 | 2.348 | 14.231 |
| FDI | 31 | 3.302 | 1.400 | 0.966 | 6.187 |
| NNI | 31 | 10.306 | 3.083 | 4.631 | 15.513 |
| TP | 31 | 97,915,333 | 45,000,103 | 14,332,500 | 1.625e + 08 |
| CO2E | 31 | 5.240 | 1.841 | 2.984 | 9.097 |
| GHGE | 31 | 85.047 | 61.641 | 2.661 | 209.922 |
| NOE | 31 | 27.360 | 16.263 | − 2.036 | 67.052 |
Descriptive statistics by years
| Years | TG | GDP | FDI | NNI | TP | CO2E | GHGE | NOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2.766 | 2.348 | 1.443 | 4.963 | 14,332,500 | 2.990 | 163.860 | 31.491 |
| 1991 | 2.874 | 5.950 | 1.311 | 5.082 | 21,751,000 | 3.086 | 153.621 | 30.804 |
| 1992 | 2.983 | 6.750 | 1.694 | 5.200 | 29,169,500 | 2.984 | 143.382 | 30.117 |
| 1993 | 3.109 | 6.947 | 1.349 | 7.927 | 36,588,000 | 3.107 | 133.142 | 29.430 |
| 1994 | 3.243 | 6.849 | 1.556 | 8.538 | 46,387,000 | 3.176 | 122.903 | 28.743 |
| 1995 | 3.398 | 7.041 | 2.192 | 7.958 | 51,128,000 | 3.201 | 112.664 | 28.056 |
| 1996 | 3.583 | 7.426 | 2.559 | 8.849 | 57,588,000 | 3.302 | 102.425 | 27.369 |
| 1997 | 3.672 | 7.766 | 3.040 | 6.788 | 63,478,000 | 3.492 | 92.186 | 26.682 |
| 1998 | 3.729 | 7.864 | 2.827 | 10.661 | 72,796,000 | 3.659 | 81.947 | 25.995 |
| 1999 | 3.858 | 10.114 | 3.484 | 11.376 | 83,444,000 | 5.914 | 82.821 | 25.308 |
| 2000 | 4.076 | 10.038 | 3.487 | 11.938 | 89,013,000 | 5.775 | 59.966 | 24.621 |
| 2001 | 7.971 | 9.134 | 3.609 | 12.239 | 97,908,000 | 5.330 | 40.647 | 23.934 |
| 2002 | 8.306 | 8.336 | 3.513 | 11.651 | 91,662,000 | 5.125 | 32.185 | 23.934 |
| 2003 | 8.792 | 8.490 | 3.475 | 9.591 | 1.090e + 08 | 5.283 | 30.561 | 21.644 |
| 2004 | 9.746 | 7.662 | 3.749 | 9.559 | 1.203e + 08 | 5.459 | 30.483 | 21.644 |
| 2005 | 10.195 | 7.846 | 4.436 | 8.751 | 1.249e + 08 | 5.622 | 32.079 | 21.644 |
| 2006 | 9.436 | 9.237 | 4.725 | 9.520 | 1.319e + 08 | 6.044 | 31.367 | 18.565 |
| 2007 | 10.001 | 9.923 | 4.652 | 12.660 | 1.300e + 08 | 6.476 | 33.119 | 24.405 |
| 2008 | 10.513 | 10.954 | 4.880 | 12.305 | 1.265e + 08 | 7.024 | 29.534 | 19.868 |
| 2009 | 11.024 | 13.037 | 5.987 | 12.645 | 1.338e + 08 | 7.952 | 18.517 | 6.748 |
| 2010 | 11.536 | 13.884 | 6.187 | 12.986 | 1.354e + 08 | 9.097 | 12.989 | 1.998 |
| 2011 | 12.047 | 14.225 | 2.613 | 13.326 | 1.324e + 08 | 8.428 | 7.188 | 3.954 |
| 2012 | 12.559 | 9.263 | 1.139 | 13.667 | 1.291e + 08 | 8.554 | 3.662 | 1.420 |
| 2013 | 13.071 | 3.920 | 0.966 | 14.007 | 1.285e + 08 | 8.183 | 2.661 | -2.036 |
| 2014 | 13.582 | 12.721 | 4.509 | 14.456 | 1.338e + 08 | 5.818 | 120.244 | 40.660 |
| 2015 | 14.094 | 11.395 | 4.554 | 13.030 | 1.418e + 08 | 6.036 | 100.467 | 35.275 |
| 2016 | 14.606 | 14.231 | 4.401 | 15.513 | 1.533e + 08 | 4.837 | 134.390 | 44.561 |
| 2017 | 15.117 | 9.651 | 3.734 | 7.195 | 1.586e + 08 | 4.377 | 157.459 | 47.613 |
| 2018 | 15.629 | 9.399 | 2.569 | 13.385 | 1.625e + 08 | 4.096 | 172.750 | 55.014 |
| 2019 | 16.140 | 10.636 | 4.004 | 9.088 | 30,402,000 | 4.134 | 187.304 | 61.637 |
| 2020 | 16.652 | 9.551 | 3.709 | 4.631 | 30,567,200 | 3.877 | 209.922 | 67.052 |
Matrix of correlations
| Variables | TG | GDP | FDI | NNI | TP | CO2E | GHGE | NOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TG | 1.000 | |||||||
| GDP | 0.556 | 1.000 | ||||||
| FDI | 0.454 | 0.723 | 1.000 | |||||
| NNI | 0.464 | 0.614 | 0.374 | 1.000 | ||||
| TP | 0.432 | 0.710 | 0.412 | 0.628 | 1.000 | |||
| CO2E | − 0.480 | 0.539 | 0.436 | 0.719 | − 0.352 | 1.000 | ||
| GHGE | − 0.003 | − 0.200 | − 0.270 | − 0.545 | − 0.435 | − 0.776 | 1.000 | |
| NOE | − 0.255 | 0.013 | 0.029 | − 0.358 | 0.231 | − 0.661 | 0.885 | 1.000 |
Unit root test
| ADF PP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Series | Level | First difference | Level | First difference | Decisions |
| TG | − 1.083 | − 5.873 | − 1.992 | − 5.820 | 1(1) |
| GDP | − 2.981 | − 7.992 | − 2.101 | − 6.991 | 1(0) |
| FDI | − 1.727 | − 4.991 | − 1.900 | − 5.922 | 1(1) |
| NNI | − 4.762 | − 8.771 | − 3.901 | − 7.002 | 1(0) |
| TP | − 5.382 | − 8.299 | − 4.983 | − 7.882 | 1(0) |
| CO2E | − 1.882 | − 3.991 | − 1.211 | − 4.955 | 1(1) |
| GHGE | − 2.191 | − 6.883 | − 3.192 | − 6.997 | 1(0) |
| NOE | − 3.221 | − 8.929 | − 2.227 | − 6.001 | 1(0) |
Bound test of nonlinear ARDL
| Model | Lag | Level of significance | Bound test critical values | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I(0) | I(1) | ||||
| TG/(GDP, FDI, NNI, TP, CO2E, GHGE, NOE) | 5.91 | 4 | 1% | 6.32 | 6.91 |
| 5% | 5.12 | 5.79 | |||
| 10% | 4.10 | 4.59 | |||
Nonlinear ARDL results
| Variables | Coefficients | Std. Err | |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 1.092 | 0.409 | 2.669 |
| TG (− 1) | 0.911 | 0.461 | 1.976 |
| CO2E (− 1) | − 1.014 | 0.302 | − 3.358 |
| GHGE (− 1) | − 0.810 | 0.291 | − 2.784 |
| NOE (− 1) | − 1.002 | 0.511 | − 1.961 |
| TP (− 1) | 2.892 | 0.723 | 3.156 |
| GDP-P (− 1) | 1.029 | 0.192 | 5.359 |
| GDP-N (− 1) | 0.282 | 0.023 | 12.261 |
| NNI-P (− 1) | 2.091 | 1.001 | 2.089 |
| NNI-N (− 1) | 2.110 | 0.992 | 2.127 |
| FDI-P (− 1) | 1.922 | 0.825 | 2.329 |
| FDI-N (− 1) | 1.269 | 0.303 | 4.188 |
| Adj. | 0.562 | ||
| 47.920 | |||
| Prob.( | 0.025 | ||