Preoperative prediction of extent and prognosis of gastric carcinoma by four serum proteins and erythrocyte sedimentation rate.

In 195 patients with gastric carcinoma the preoperative ESR and serum concentrations of IgG, C4, C1-INH and CEA varied significantly with the extent of disease. Extent of disease and prognosis were predicted from these variables by discriminant analysis. The discriminant rules were tested on the same patients in an unbiased way. Metastases or no metastases were correctly predicted in 75% of the patients. By an appropriate prior distribution 93% of the patients without metastases were identified. The disease extent was also predicted in subgroups of patients with and without metastases. Survival was correctly predicted preoperatively in 66% of the patients and 83% of the patients with a fair prognosis were identified. Of the patients preoperatively allocated to the non-survival group 94% did actually die during follow-up. When used in addition to other available information, our discriminant rules will contribute to the quality of the preoperative evaluation of patients with gastric carcinoma.