| Literature DB >> 36221419 |
Jiangwen Wu1, Zhaomin Xie2,3, Yu Xiao4, Bingbing Wang5, Pengcheng Zhang6.
Abstract
This paper aimed at constructing and validating a novel prognostic nomogram, so that physicians forecast the overall survival (OS) rates of female patients suffering from non-metastatic human epidermal growth element receptor-2 (HER2) positive breast. Information of primary female her2 positive breast cancer patients without metastasis was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database with given inclusion and exclusion standards. Independent variables were obtained greatly by performing univariable and multivariate analyses. Based on those independent predictors, a novel prognostic nomogram was constructed for predicting the survival of those with 3- and 5-year OS. Then, concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration plot were adopted for the assessment of the predictive power of the nomogram. A total of 36,083 eligible patients were classified into a training cohort (n = 25,259) and a verification cohort (n = 10,824) randomly. According to the identification of multivariate analysis, survival was predicted by age at diagnosis, marital status, race, site, T stage, N stage, progesterone receptor (PR) status, estrogen receptor (ER) status, surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy independently. A nomogram was established by applying the training cohort. The nomogram displayed excellent discrimination and performance as indicated by the C-index (0.764, 95% confidence interval: 0.756-0.772), and the 3- and 5-year area under the curve of ROC (AUC) values (0.760 and 0.692 respectively). The calibration plots for forecasting the 3- and 5-year OS were in great agreement. The OS for female her2 positive breast cancer patients without metastasis was predicted by constructing a nomogram on basis of the SEER database. A precise survival prediction could be offered for each patient.Entities:
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Year: 2022 PMID: 36221419 PMCID: PMC9543019 DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000030922
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) ISSN: 0025-7974 Impact factor: 1.817
The demographics and clinical features for female patients suffering from non-metastatic HER2 positive breast cancer in different cohorts.
| Total n = 36,083(%) | Training cohort n = 25,259 (%) | Validation cohort n = 10,824 (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| <40 yr old | 3798(10.5) | 2651(10.5) | 1147(10.6) | .7733 |
| >40 yr old | 32,285(89.5) | 22,608(89.5) | 9677(89.4) | |
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| Married | 21,686(60.1) | 15,212(60.2) | 6474(59.8) | .4634 |
| Not married | 14,397(39.9) | 10,047(39.8) | 4350(40.2) | |
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| White | 27,321(75.7) | 19,094(75.6) | 8227(76.0) | .5641 |
| Black | 4436(12.3) | 3107(12.3) | 1329(12.3) | |
| Other | 4326(12.0) | 3058(12.1) | 1268(11.7) | |
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| Left | 18,444(51.1) | 12,909(51.1) | 5535(51.1) | .9586 |
| Right | 17,639(48.9) | 12,350(48.9) | 5289(48.9) | |
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| UOQ | 12,141(33.6) | 8508(33.7) | 3633(33.6) | .7395 |
| LOQ | 2927(8.1) | 2038(8.1) | 889(8.2) | |
| LIQ | 2028(5.6) | 1432(5.7) | 596(5.5) | |
| UIQ | 3973(11) | 2749(10.9) | 1224(11.3) | |
| Other | 15,014(41.6) | 10,532(41.7) | 4482(41.4) | |
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| Ⅰ | 1872(5.2) | 1357(5.4) | 515(4.8) | .4875 |
| Ⅱ | 13075(36.2) | 9117(36.1) | 3958(36.6) | |
| Ⅲ | 20,948(58.1) | 14,656(58.0) | 6292(58.1) | |
| Ⅳ | 188(0.5) | 129(0.5) | 59(0.5) | |
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| T0 | 65(0.2) | 40(0.2) | 25(0.2) | .1037 |
| T1 | 17,674(49.0) | 12,401(49.1) | 5273(48.7) | |
| T2 | 13,721(38.0) | 9593(38.0) | 4128(38.1) | |
| T3 | 2895(8.0) | 2026(8.0) | 869(8.0) | |
| T4 | 1728(4.8) | 1199(4.7) | 529(4.9) | |
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| N0 | 21,586(59.8) | 15,121(59.9) | 6465(59.7) | .8707 |
| N1 | 10,455(29.0) | 7337(29.0) | 3118(29.0) | |
| N2 | 2497(6.9) | 1783(7.1) | 764(7.1) | |
| N3 | 1545(4.3) | 1068(4.2) | 477(4.4) | |
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| HR+/HER2+ | 25,446(70.5) | 17,834(70.6) | 7612(70.3) | .5938 |
| HR–/HER2+ | 10637(29.5) | 7425(29.4) | 3212(29.7) | |
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| Positive | 24742(68.6) | 17,343(68.7) | 7399(68.4) | .5695 |
| Negative | 11,341(31.4) | 7916(31.3) | 3425(31.6) | |
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| Positive | 18,959(52.5) | 13,270(52.5) | 5689(52.6) | .9675 |
| Negative | 17,124(47.5) | 11,989(47.5) | 5135(47.4) | |
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| Yes | 34,257(94.9) | 23,981(94.9) | 10,276(94.9) | .9897 |
| No | 1826(5.1) | 1278(5.1) | 548(5.1) | |
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| Yes | 17,369(48.1) | 12,122(48.0) | 5247(48.5) | .3983 |
| No | 18,714(51.9) | 13,137(52.0) | 5577(51.5) | |
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| Yes | 27,172(75.3) | 19,023(75.3) | 8149(75.3) | .9592 |
| No | 8911(24.7) | 6236(24.7) | 2675(24.7) |
HER2 = human epidermal growth factor receptor-2, HER2+ = human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive, HR– = hormone-receptor-negative, HR+ = hormone-receptor-positive, LIQ = lower inner quadrant, LOQ = lower outer quadrant, UOQ = upper outer quadrant, UIQ = upper inner quadrant.
Univariable and multivariate cox analysis for female patients suffering from non-metastatic HER2 positive breast cancer.
| Variable | Univariable | Multivariable | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRs(95%CI) | HRs (95%CI) | |||
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| <40 yrs old | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| >40 yrs old | 1.84(1.60–2.11) | <.001 | 1.68(1.46–1.94) | <.001 |
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| Married | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| Not married | 2.22(2.07–2.38) | <.001 | 1.94(1.63–1.88) | <.001 |
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| White | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| Black | 1.30(1.18–1.43) | <.001 | 1.09(0.99–1.20) | .087 |
| Other | 0.65(0.57–0.74) | <.001 | 0.64(0.56–0.72) | <.001 |
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| Left | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| Right | 0.98(0.91–1.05) | .483 | 0.97(0.91–1.04) | .407 |
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| UOQ | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| LOQ | 0.84(0.72–0.98) | <.05 | 0.86(0.74–1.00) | <.05 |
| LIQ | 1.10(0.94–1.29) | .21 | 1.28(1.10–1.50) | <.01 |
| UIQ | 1.06(0.94–1.20) | .36 | 1.21(10.7–1.37) | <.01 |
| Other | 1.29(1.19–1.40) | <.001 | 1.13(1.05–1.23) | <.01 |
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| Ⅰ | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| Ⅱ | 1.10(0.93–1.32) | .26 | 0.98(0.82–1.17) | .843 |
| Ⅲ | 1.41(1.19–1.67) | <.001 | 1.09(0.92–1.30) | .322 |
| Ⅳ | 1.56(1.01–2.43) | <.05 | 0.99(0.63–1.54) | .961 |
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| T0 | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| T1 | 0.51(0.23–1.14) | .1 | 0.87(0.39–1.95) | .741 |
| T2 | 1.04(0.46–2.31) | .93 | 1.65(0.74–3.69) | .223 |
| T3 | 1.42(0.64–3.18) | .39 | 2.04(0.91–4.59) | .083 |
| T4 | 3.12(1.39–6.98) | <.01 | 3.61(1.61–8.11) | <.01 |
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| N0 | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| N1 | 1.53(1.42–1.67) | <.001 | 1.48(1.35–1.61) | <.001 |
| N2 | 2.83(2.55–3.15) | <.001 | 2.68(2.39–3.00) | <.001 |
| N3 | 3.66(3.25–4.12) | <.001 | 3.06(2.68–3.48) | <.001 |
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| HR+/HER2+ | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| HR–/HER2+ | 1.47(1.37–1.57) | <.001 | 0.83(0.65–1.06) | .14 |
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| Positive | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| Negative | 1.49(1.39–1.59) | <.001 | 1.36(1.09–1.71) | <.01 |
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| Positive | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| Negative | 1.48(1.38–1.58) | <.001 | 1.30(1.19–1.43) | <.001 |
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| Yes | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| No | 3.87(3.49–4.29) | <.001 | 2.31(2.07–2.58) | <.001 |
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| Yes | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| No | 1.57(1.47–1.69) | <.001 | 1.30(1.20–1.40) | <.001 |
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| Yes | Reference | NA | Reference | NA |
| No | 2.28(2.13–2.44) | <.001 | 3.03(2.80–3.27) | <.001 |
CI = confidence interval, ER = estrogen receptor, HER2 = human epidermal growth factor receptor-2, HER2+ = human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive, HR– = hormone-receptor-negative, HR+ = hormone-receptor-positive, HRs = hazard ratios, LIQ = lower inner quadrant, LOQ = lower outer quadrant, PR = progesterone receptor, UOQ = upper outer quadrant, UIQ = upper inner quadrant.
Figure 1.Nomogram for predicting 3- and 5- year OS rates of female patients suffering non-metastatic her2 positive breast cancer.
Figure 2.ROC curve analysis to predict 3- and 5- year OS rates of female patients suffering non-metastatic her2 positive breast cancer. (A) ROC curve for the training cohort. (B) ROC curve for the external validation cohort.
Figure 3.Calibration plots for predicting 3- and 5- year OS rates in female patients suffering non-metastatic her2 positive breast cancer. (A) Calibration plot of the 3-year training cohort. (B) Calibration plot of the 5-year for training cohort. (C) Calibration plot of the 3-year for the external validation cohort. (D) Calibration plot of the 5-year for the external validation cohort. The x-axis represents the predicted OS in female patients suffering from non-metastatic her2-positive breast cancer. The y-axis represents the actual OS in female patients suffering from non-metastatic her2 positive breast cancer. The diagonal dotted line stands for a perfect prediction using an ideal model. We drew the solid line to represent the performance of the nomogram, of which the closer fit to the diagonal dotted line represents the better prediction of the nomogram.