| Literature DB >> 36197200 |
Chi-Ling Kao1, Chih-Ming Lin2,3,4,5,6, Shu-Wei Chang3, Chi-Kuang Liu7, Yang-Hao Ou2, Henry Horng-Shing Lu1.
Abstract
The treatment of acute ischemic stroke is heavily time-dependent, and even though, with the most efficient treatment, the long-term functional outcome is still highly variable. In this current study, the authors selected acute ischemic stroke patients who were qualified for intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator and followed by intra-arterial thrombectomy. With primary outcome defined by the functional level in a 1-year follow-up, we hypothesize that patients with older age are at a disadvantage in post-stroke recovery. However, an age-threshold should be determined to help clinicians in selection of patients to undergo such therapy. This is a retrospective chart review study that include 92 stroke patients in Changhua Christian hospital with a total of 68 evaluation indexes recorded. The current study utilized the forward stepwise regression model whose Adj-R2 and P value in search of important variables for outcome prediction. The chngpt package in R indicated the threshold point of the age factor directing the better future functionality of the stroke patients. Datasets revealed the threshold of the age set at 79 the most appropriate. Admission Barthel Index, Age, ipsilateral internal carotid artery resistance index (ICA RI), ipsilateral vertebral artery (VA) PI, contralateral middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis, contralateral external carotid artery (ECA) RI, and in-hospital pneumonia are the significant predicting variables. The higher the age, in-hospital pneumonia, contralateral MCA stenosis, ipsilateral ICA RI and ipsilateral VA PI, the less likely patient to recover from functional deficits as the result of acute ischemic stroke; the higher the value of contralateral ECA RI and admission Barthel Index, the better chance to full functional recovery at 1-year follow up. Parameters of pre-intervention datasets could provide important information to aid first-line clinicians in decision making. Especially, in patients whose age is above 79 receives diminish return in the benefit to undergo such intervention and should be considered seriously by both the patients and the physicians.Entities:
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Year: 2022 PMID: 36197200 PMCID: PMC9509074 DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000030712
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) ISSN: 0025-7974 Impact factor: 1.817
Figure 1.Research flow chart
Pre-interventional variables in the forward stepwise regression analyses as to determining the important predictive power.
| Categories | Coefficients | |
|---|---|---|
| Admission Barthel Index | −0.026867 | .00212 ** |
| Age | 0.017807 | .03030 * |
| Ipsilateral ICA RI | 2.493430 | .00155 ** |
| Ipsilateral VA PI | 0.214155 | .01274 * |
| Contralateral MCA stenosis CTA | 0.546799 | .03008 * |
| Contralateral ECA RI | −1.148134 | .02184 * |
| Stroke right/ left | −0.437726 | .06663. |
| In-hospital pneumonia | 0.561732 | .02126 * |
| MRA ipsilateral Collateral flow | −0.449998 | .06348. |
| CTP mismatch | 0.006712 | .11008 |
| Admission CT ASPECTS | 0.140513 | .14005 |
Significant value: ***P value <.001; **P value <.01; *P value <.05; P value <.01. This table showed total of 11 variables identified using forward stepwise regression model, and 7 of the variables showed statistical significance. Admission Barthel Index (P value = .00212), Age (P value = .03030), Ipsilateral ICA RI (P value = .00155), Ipsilateral VA PI (P value = .01274), Contralateral MCA stenosis CTA (P value = .03008), Contralateral ECA RI (P value = .02184) and in-hospital pneumonia (P value = .02126) were the most significant variables.
ASPECTS = The Alberta stroke programme early CT score, CTA = computed tomography angiography, ECA= external carotid artery, ICA = internal carotid artery, MCA = middle cerebral artery, MRA = magnetic resonance arteriography, MRI = magnetic resonance imaging, PI = pulsatility index, RI = resistance index, VA, Vertebral artery.
Pre-interventional independent important variables with statistical significance and distribution in a glance.
| Admission | Age | Ipsilateral ICA RI | Ipsilateral VA RI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min.: 0.00 | Min.:25.00 | Min. :0.5100 | Min. :0.5300 |
| Contralateral MCA | Contralateral ECA RI | In hospital | |
| Min.:0.0000 | Min.:0.7400 | Min.:5.000 |
Note: These variables were identified using the forward stepwise regression model. Indicating that these 7 out of the total of 68 pre-interventional variables showed significant influence on the overall prognosis. Additionally, showing the minimum, maximum, median and quartile values of each variables.
CTA = computed tomography angiography, ECA = external carotid artery, ICA = internal carotid artery, MCA = middle cerebral artery, RI = resistance index, VA = vertebral artery.
Model architecture of the data analysis in stratifying the baseline patients’ characteristics.
| Original model | Forward stepwise regression | |
|---|---|---|
| Formula | Prognosis ~ | Prognosis ~ Admission Barthel Index + Age + Ipsilateral ICA RI + Ipsilateral VA PI + Contralateral MCA stenosis CTA + Contralateral ECA RI + Stroke right/ left + In hospital pneumonia + MRA ipsilateral collateral flow + CTP mismatch + Admission CT ASPECTS |
| Residual standard error | 1.189 | 1.054 |
| Multiple | 0.7954 | 0.5243 |
| Adjusted | 0.3106 | 0.4588 |
| F-statistic | 1.641 | 8.015 |
| .07819 | 3.137e−09 *** |
Note: This table showed the difference between the original model using multiple regression and forward stepwise regression model. The Adj-R2 of original model is 0.3106 and the P value of original model was .07819. The Adj-R2 of forward stepwise model was 0.4588 and the P value of forward stepwise model was 3.137e−09.
ASPECTS = The Alberta stroke programme early CT score, CTA = computed tomography angiography, ECA= external carotid artery, ICA = internal carotid artery, MCA = middle cerebral artery, MRI = magnetic resonance imaging, PI = pulsatility index, RI = resistance index, VA, Vertebral artery.
Figure 2.Threshold of the age among patients undergoing the intra-arterial thrombectomy treatment. The figure elucidates the 3 plots of the threshold of this data. The first plot shows the scatter plot between Age and Prognosis, and it represents that the samples scattered around 60 to 80 years old. The second plot shows the threshold of the Age variables is 79. The third plot shows the threshold which is estimated by bootstrap in order to know the frequency. We can presume the threshold for the variable “age” is 79.
The linear regression for age threshold in differentiating the patients undergoing the intra-arterial thrombectomy long term functional outcome assessment.
| Model | |
|---|---|
| Formula | Prognosis ~ Age |
| Residual standard error | 1.386 |
| Multiple | 0.0739 |
| Adjusted | 0.06361 |
| 7.182 | |
| .008757 |
Note: To verify the presumption derived from the scatter plot that age of 79 might be a threshold for poor prognosis, the authors divided age variables into 2 groups; the first group with age greater than 79, and the second group with age below 79, conducted via a simple linear regression. The result was shown in this table and confirmed that there was a significant difference in the prognosis between these 2 age groups.