| Literature DB >> 36187605 |
Adriana Poppe1,2, Dina Maskileyson1.
Abstract
Governments across the globe have implemented different strategies to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. A national mandatory quarantine was the most applied policy tool. While there are studies that tested the effectiveness of a national mandatory quarantine, the question about the effectiveness of additional quarantine policies is not yet answered. In this study we focus on three large cities in Colombia (Bogota, Medellin and Cali) with similar socio-economic conditions but made use of different COVID-19 prevention measures. We examine whether different non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) conducted in these three cities are effective against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We inspect the effect of the quarantine policies restricting exit from home by sex, ID number, whereby only Bogota implemented the restriction to leave the home according to sex followed by a restriction according to ID number, and Medellin and Cali implemented a restriction by ID number only. Data for the analysis are obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia [Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE)]. The data on pandemic severity is measured by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per city. We conduct single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine differences in the extent of the pandemic severity in Bogota, Medellin and Cali. We found that NPIs in all three Colombian cities had a positive effect on slowing the spread of the pandemic.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; Colombia; non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs); policy evaluation; single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA)
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 36187605 PMCID: PMC9521598 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.937644
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Public Health ISSN: 2296-2565
Number of COVID-19 PCR tests per 100,000 inhabitants, by department.
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| Bogota D.C. | 7,149,540 | 647.26 | 1811.53 | 4017.84 | 8545.92 | 13313.57 | 16574.33 | 20503.65 | 24280.92 |
| Valle de Cauca | 3,762,229 | 437.16 | 1038.51 | 2908.33 | 3953.69 | 5660.58 | 6838.90 | 8464.88 | 10183.70 |
| Antioquia | 5,931,492 | 356.76 | 923.80 | 1336.63 | 4350.19 | 6137.76 | 7684.36 | 9929.07 | 11657.71 |
| Total (Colombia) | 43,835,324 | 345.37 | 1015.01 | 2209.33 | 4431.88 | 6543.33 | 8240.58 | 10273.77 | 12279.89 |
Figure 1Distribution of the COVID-19 confirmed cases per 1,000 inhabitants by city.
Single ITSA predicting the effect of peak and sex/peak and id on the COVID-19 infection rate, by city; the interruption time-point of the analysis is 14 days after the actual implementation of the policy.
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| Pre-intervention | ||||||||
| Intercept | −7.311 | 0.550 | −5.402 | 0.879 | −6.315 | 0.369 | −6.868 | 0.251 |
| Slope | 0.149 | 0.019 | 0.068 | 0.011 | 0.159 | 0.017 | 0.134 | 0.012 |
| Post-intervention | ||||||||
| Intercept | −1.164 | 0.512 | −0.992 | 0.559 | −0.837 | 0.324 | −1.328 | 0.474 |
| Difference between pre- and post-intervention slopes | −0.109 | 0.019 | −0.028 | 0.012 | −0.124 | 0.175 | −0.088 | 0.011 |
Significance level: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001; SE, standard error. All models are estimated 14 days after the implementation of the intervention as the interruption time-point of the analyses to control for a lag between infection, symptoms and PCR test results.
Figure 2(A) Single ITSA predicting the effect of peak and sex/peak and id on the COVID-19 infection rate, by city; the interruption time-point of the analysis is 14 days after the actual implementation of the policy. (B) Single ITSA predicting the effect of peak and ID on the COVID-19 infection rate in Bogota; the interruption time-point of the analysis is 14 days after the actual implementation of the policy.
Figure 3Single ITSA predicting the effect of peak and ID on the COVID-19 infection rate in Cali; the interruption time-point of the analysis is 14 days after the actual implementation of the policy.
Figure 4Single ITSA predicting the effect of peak and ID on the COVID-19 infection rate in Medellin; the interruption time-point of the analysis is 14 days after the actual implementation of the policy.