| Literature DB >> 36183001 |
Hannah Cho1,2, Eun Hee Lee1, Kwang-Sig Lee3, Ju Sun Heo4,5.
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze major predictors of adverse birth outcomes in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants including particulate matter concentration (PM10), using machine learning and the national prospective cohort. Data consisted of 10,423 VLBW infants from the Korean Neonatal Network database during January 2013-December 2017. Five adverse birth outcomes were considered as the dependent variables, i.e., gestational age less than 28 weeks, gestational age less than 26 weeks, birth weight less than 1000 g, birth weight less than 750 g and small-for-gestational age. Thirty-three predictors were included and the artificial neural network, the decision tree, the logistic regression, the Naïve Bayes, the random forest and the support vector machine were used for predicting the dependent variables. Among the six prediction models, the random forest had the best performance (accuracy 0.79, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve 0.72). According to the random forest variable importance, major predictors of adverse birth outcomes were maternal age (0.2131), birth-month (0.0767), PM10 month (0.0656), sex (0.0428), number of fetuses (0.0424), primipara (0.0395), maternal education (0.0352), pregnancy-induced hypertension (0.0347), chorioamnionitis (0.0336) and antenatal steroid (0.0318). In conclusion, adverse birth outcomes had strong associations with PM10 month as well as maternal and fetal factors.Entities:
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Year: 2022 PMID: 36183001 PMCID: PMC9526718 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-16234-y
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.996
Descriptive statistics: adverse birth outcomes and categorical predictors.
| Variable | % | |
|---|---|---|
| Gestational age < 28 weeks | 3961 | 38.0 |
| Gestational age < 26 weeks | 1919 | 18.4 |
| Birth weight < 1000 g | 3960 | 38.0 |
| Birth weight < 750 g | 1658 | 15.9 |
| Small-for-gestational-age | 2242 | 21.5 |
| Sex: Male | 5270 | 50.6 |
| 2013 | 1395 | 13.4 |
| 2014 | 2126 | 20.4 |
| 2015 | 2399 | 23.0 |
| 2016 | 2365 | 22.7 |
| 2017 | 2138 | 20.5 |
| Birth-Season: Spring | 2535 | 24.3 |
| Birth-Season: Summer | 2623 | 25.2 |
| Birth-Season: Autumn | 2759 | 26.5 |
| Birth-Season: Winter | 2506 | 24.0 |
| 1 | 6761 | 64.9 |
| 2 | 3247 | 31.2 |
| 3 | 400 | 3.8 |
| 4 or more | 15 | 0.1 |
| In vitro fertilization | 2403 | 23.1 |
| Gestational DM | 830 | 8.0 |
| Overt DM | 114 | 1.1 |
| Pregnancy-induced hypertension | 1986 | 19.2 |
| Chronic hypertension | 223 | 2.1 |
| Chorioamnionitis | 3019 | 29.0 |
| PROM | 3661 | 35.1 |
| PROM > 18 h | 2467 | 23.7 |
| Antenatal steroid | 8310 | 79.7 |
| Cesarean section | 8106 | 77.8 |
| Oligohydramnios | 1413 | 13.6 |
| Polyhydramnios | 153 | 1.5 |
| Primipara | 6497 | 62.3 |
| Elementary | 29 | 0.3 |
| Junior high | 122 | 1.2 |
| Senior high | 1931 | 18.5 |
| College or higher | 8341 | 80.0 |
| Korea | 10,023 | 96.2 |
| China | 124 | 1.2 |
| Vietnam | 122 | 1.2 |
| Philippines | 62 | 0.6 |
| Cambodia | 35 | 0.3 |
| Other | 57 | 0.2 |
| Elementary | 8 | 0.1 |
| Junior high | 52 | 0.5 |
| Senior high | 1280 | 12.3 |
| College or higher | 9083 | 87.1 |
| Korea | 10,191 | 97.8 |
| Vietnam | 79 | 0.8 |
| Philippines | 19 | 0.2 |
| Cambodia | 7 | 0.1 |
| China | 5 | 0.0 |
| Other | 122 | 1.2 |
| Unmarried | 216 | 2.1 |
| Congenital infection | 128 | 1.2 |
DM, diabetes mellitus; PROM, prelabor rupture of membrane.
Univariate analysis.
| Variable | GA < 28 | GA < 26 | BW < 1000 | BW < 750 | SGA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No (n = 6462) | Yes (n = 3961) | No (n = 8504) | Yes (n = 1919) | No (n = 6463) | Yes (n = 3960) | No (n = 8765) | Yes (n = 1658) | No (n = 8181) | Yes (n = 2242) | ||||||
| Birth-Month (%) | 0.065* | 0.069* | 0.115 | 0.002* | 0.012* | ||||||||||
| January | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 8.9 | |||||
| February | 7.3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 6.4 | |||||
| March | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 10.0 | |||||
| April | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 8.2 | |||||
| May | 7.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 7.8 | |||||
| June | 7.6 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.4 | |||||
| July | 8.0 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.1 | |||||
| August | 9.2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 9.1 | |||||
| September | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | |||||
| October | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | |||||
| November | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 8.2 | |||||
| December | 9.9 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 8.8 | |||||
| Male (%) | 49.0 | 53.0 | < 0.001* | 50.0 | 52.5 | 0.051* | 51.8 | 48.6 | 0.001* | 51.5 | 45.6 | < 0.001* | 50.5 | 50.7 | 0.892 |
| N-Fetuses (%) | < 0.001* | 0.023* | < 0.001* | 0.078* | 0.704 | ||||||||||
| 1 | 62.4 | 68.9 | 64.5 | 67.4 | 62.9 | 68.0 | 64.5 | 67.0 | 64.6 | 65.8 | |||||
| 2 | 32.8 | 28.4 | 31.4 | 29.6 | 32.4 | 29.1 | 31.4 | 29.6 | 31.4 | 30.4 | |||||
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | |||||
| 4 or more | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||
| Maternal age (mean ± SD) | 32.99 ± 4.28 | 33.05 ± 4.27 | 0.453 | 33.02 ± 4.28 | 32.95 ± 4.29 | 0.548 | 32.97 ± 4.30 | 33.08 ± 4.24 | 0.173 | 32.99 ± 4.28 | 33.11 ± 4.25 | 0.315 | 32.96 ± 4.28 | 33.21 ± 4.28 | 0.014* |
| PM10 Month (mean ± SD) | 46.12 ± 9.28 | 46.31 ± 9.34 | 0.317 | 46.14 ± 9.27 | 46.44 ± 9.50 | 0.201 | 46.07 ± 9.24 | 46.40 ± 9.42 | 0.083* | 46.09 ± 9.26 | 46.73 ± 9.55 | 0.012* | 46.12 ± 9.26 | 46.48 ± 9.48 | 0.110 |
BW, birth weight (grams); GA, gestational age (weeks); N-fetuses, number of fetuses, PM, particulate matter; SGA, small-for-gestational age.
*P < 0.10 chi-square test for the equality of proportions “Yes” or T test for the equality of means.
Model Performance.
| Model | GA < 28 | GA < 26 | BW < 1000 | BW < 750 | SGA | Average | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | AUC | Accuracy | AUC | Accuracy | AUC | Accuracy | AUC | Accuracy | AUC | Accuracy | AUC | |
| LR | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.84 | 0.61 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| DT | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.74 | 0.62 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| NB | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| RF | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| SVM | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.84 | 0.52 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| ANN | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.84 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| LR | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.84 | 0.61 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| DT | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.61 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| NB | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| RF | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| SVM | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.84 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| ANN | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.84 | 0.48 | 0.78 | 0.51 | 0.78 | 0.51 |
ANN artificial neural network; AUC, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve; BW, birth weight (grams); DT, decision tree; GA, gestational age (weeks); LR, logistic regression; NB, naive bayes; PM, particulate matter; RF, random forest—1000 trees; SGA, small-for-gestational age; SVM, support vector machine.
Random forest variable importance for adverse birth outcomes: PM10 excluded.
The ranking of a top-5 predictor was highlighted with the color of orange and 6–10 predictor was highlighted with the color of mild blue.
BW, birth weight (grams); DM, diabetes mellitus; GA, gestational age (weeks); PIH, pregnancy-induced hypertension; PM, particulate matter; PROM, prelabor rupture of membranes; SGA, small-for-gestational age.
*P < 0.10 chi-square or T Test (Table 2).
Random forest variable importance for adverse birth outcomes: PM10 included.
The ranking of a top-5 predictor was highlighted with the color of orange and 6–10 predictor was highlighted with the color of mild blue.
BW, birth weight (grams); DM, diabetes mellitus; GA, gestational age (weeks); PIH, pregnancy-induced hypertension; PM, particulate matter; PROM, prelabor rupture of membranes; SGA, small-for-gestational age.
*P < 0.10 chi-square or T test (Table 2).
Figure 1Random forest variable importance plots for adverse birth outcomes: PM10 included. PM, particulate matter; PROM, prelabor rupture of membranes.
Random forest variable importance rankings for adverse birth outcomes: PM10 included.
The ranking of a top-5 predictor was highlighted with the color of orange and 6–10 predictor was highlighted with the color of mild blue.
BW, birth weight (grams); DM, diabetes mellitus; GA, gestational age (weeks); PIH, pregnancy-induced hypertension; PM, particulate matter; PROM, prelabor rupture of membranes; SGA, small-for-gestational age.
*P < 0.10 chi-square or T test (Table 2).