| Literature DB >> 36157589 |
Nathan Radakovich1,2, David A Sallman3, Rena Buckstein4, Andrew Brunner5, Amy Dezern6, Sudipto Mukerjee7, Rami Komrokji3, Najla Al-Ali3, Jacob Shreve8, Yazan Rouphail9, Anne Parmentier4, Alexandre Mamedov4, Mohammed Siddiqui4, Yihong Guan10, Teodora Kuzmanovic10, Metis Hasipek10, Babal Jha10, Jaroslaw P Maciejewski10, Mikkael A Sekeres11, Aziz Nazha12.
Abstract
Hypomethylating agents (HMA) prolong survival and improve cytopenias in individuals with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Only 30-40% of patients, however, respond to HMAs, and responses may not occur for more than 6 months after HMA initiation. We developed a model to more rapidly assess HMA response by analyzing early changes in patients' blood counts. Three institutions' data were used to develop a model that assessed patients' response to therapy 90 days after the initiation using serial blood counts. The model was developed with a training cohort of 424 patients from 2 institutions and validated on an independent cohort of 90 patients. The final model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.79 in the train/test group and 0.84 in the validation group. The model provides cohort-wide and individual-level explanations for model predictions, and model certainty can be interrogated to gauge the reliability of a given prediction.Entities:
Keywords: Drugs; artificial intelligence; cancer
Year: 2022 PMID: 36157589 PMCID: PMC9490588 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104931
Source DB: PubMed Journal: iScience ISSN: 2589-0042
Cohort demographics
| Missing | Total | CCF | Moffitt | SHC | p value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | 514 | 324 | 100 | 90 | ||
| Female | 0 | 154 (30) | 101 (31) | 28 (28) | 25 (28) | 0.723 |
| Age, mean (SD) | 0 | 71.8 (9) | 71.6 (10) | 69.6 (8) | 74.8 (9) | 0.001 |
| Days of follow-up, mean (SD) | 752.8 (722) | 776.1 (685) | 714.3 (595) | 712.5 (948) | ||
| 91 | 336 (79) | 260 (81) | 76 (76) | Missing | 0.406 | |
| Number of cycles, mean (SD) | 92 | 12.6 (12) | 12.5 (12) | 12.9 (12) | Missing | |
| Azacitidine (%) | 0 | 428 (83) | 256 (79) | 90 (90) | 84 (92) | <0.001 |
| Decitabine (%) | 0 | 86 (17) | 68 (21) | 10 (10) | 6 (8) | |
| Prior lenalidomide (%) | 90 | 29 (7) | 20 (8) | 9 (10) | Missing | 0.208 |
| Other prior treatment (%) | 90 | 12 (3) | 8 (3) | 4 (4) | Missing | 0.419 |
| % Marrow Blasts, mean (SD) | 4 | 3.3 (6) | 0.1 (0.1) | 7.6 (6) | 10.1 (7.7) | <0.001 |
| Progression to AML (%) | 0 | 170 (33) | 111 (34) | 31 (31) | 28 (31) | 0.757 |
| IPSS-R cytogenetic score | 17 | 0.023 | ||||
| 0 | 12 (2) | 9 (3) | 1 (1) | 2 (2) | ||
| 1 | 260 (51) | 183 (56) | 51 (51) | 26 (29) | ||
| 2 | 77 (15) | 49 (15) | 12 (12) | 16 (18) | ||
| 3 | 148 (29) | 83 (26) | 35 (35) | 30 (33) | ||
| Missing | 17 (3) | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | 16 (18) | ||
| IPSS-R category | 17 | <0.001 | ||||
| Very Low | 21 (4) | 19 (6) | 1 (1) | 1 (1) | ||
| Low | 124 (24) | 101 (31) | 21 (21) | 2 (2) | ||
| Intermediate | 105 (20) | 74 (23) | 19 (19) | 12 (13) | ||
| High | 110 (21) | 64 (20) | 21 (21) | 25 (28) | ||
| Very High | 137 (27) | 66 (20) | 37 (37) | 34 (38) | ||
| Missing | 17 (3) | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | 16 (18) | ||
| Sub-type | 0 | <0.001 | ||||
| CMML | 59 (12) | 47 (15) | 3 (3) | 9 (10) | ||
| MDS-5q | 7 (1) | 5 (2) | 0 (0) | 2 (2) | ||
| MDS-NOS | 71 (14) | 56 (17) | 4 (4) | 11 (12) | ||
| MDS-U | 12 (2) | 10 (3) | 2 (2) | 0 | ||
| RARS | 36 (7) | 22 (7) | 12 (12) | 2 (2) | ||
| MDS-EB1 | 91 (18) | 49 (15) | 23 (23) | 19 (21) | ||
| MDS-EB2 | 133 (26) | 68 (21) | 34 (34) | 32 (36) | ||
| RCMD | 100 (20) | 63 (19) | 22 (22) | 15 (17) | ||
| RCUD | 5 (1) | 4 (1) | 0 | 1 (1) |
Continuous variables are compared between cohorts using an ANOVA test, and categorical variables are compared using the chi-squared test.
Figure 1Global feature importance, determined by Shapley values
Bar plots shown depict the relative importance of different laboratory values for predicting HMA response in the model, with bar length corresponding to the relative importance of a given feature.
Figure 2Feature importance by time point
The heatmaps shown depict different laboratory values in rows, with individual columns corresponding to groups of ten days. Tile color corresponds to relative feature importance as calculated by Shapley values.
Figure 3Personalized predictions of HMA response
The pairs of graphs shown depict patients’ hemoglobin, platelet, and ANC values in line graphs during the first 90 days of treatment, and the factors contributing to model predictions in the corresponding heatmaps. Heatmap tiles in blue represent factors making response less likely; red tiles represent factors favoring a response.
Figure 4Estimated HMA response rates (logistic regression) versus percentile of predicted response likelihood
Individual patients are arranged along the x axis in order of predicted likelihood of response from those predicted least likely to respond to those predicted most likely to respond. Response rates as estimated by logistic regression are shown on the y axis.
Figure 5HMA response rates by quintile likelihood of response
Bar graphs depict the proportion of patients achieving a response when patients are sorted according to model predictions of response likelihood. p-values between adjacent quintiles are obtained via the chi-squared test.
| REAGENT or RESOURCES | SOURCE | IDENTIFIER |
|---|---|---|
| Deposited data | This paper | |
| Software and algorithms | This paper |