Zhaohui Liang1,2, Kongjia Luo2,3, Yuting Wang1, Qiuli Zeng1, Xiuzhen Ling1, Sifen Wang1,2, Mihnea P Dragomir4,5,6, Qiaoqiao Li1,2, Hong Yang2,3, Mian Xi7,8, Baoqing Chen9,10. 1. State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Department of Radiation Oncology, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. 2. Guangdong Esophageal Cancer Research Institute, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. 3. State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Department of Thoracic Surgery, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. 4. Institute of Pathology, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany. 5. Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany. 6. German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), Partner Site Berlin, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany. 7. State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Department of Radiation Oncology, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. ximian@sysucc.org.cn. 8. Guangdong Esophageal Cancer Research Institute, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. ximian@sysucc.org.cn. 9. State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Department of Radiation Oncology, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. chenbq@sysucc.org.cn. 10. Guangdong Esophageal Cancer Research Institute, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. chenbq@sysucc.org.cn.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored correlations of clinical factors and dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and predicted their risk by establishing a nomogram model. METHODS: Clinical and DVH parameters of ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment from 2002 to 2020 were collected. Postoperative cardiopulmonary complications were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was applied, and a nomogram model was constructed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were performed to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: Of the 307 ESCC patients enrolled in this study, 65 (21.2%) experienced pulmonary complications and 57 (18.6%) experienced cardiac complications. The following six risk factors were identified as independent risk factors for pulmonary complications by multivariate logistic regression analyses in the integrated model: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-9.70; P = 0.021), post-radiation therapy (RT) forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (OR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.28-0.90; P = 0.023), mean lung dose (MLD) (OR, 1.13; 95% CI 1.01-1.28; P = 0.041), and pre-RT monocyte (OR, 8.36; 95% CI 1.23-11.7; P = 0.03). The AUC of this integrated model was 0.705 (95% CI 0.64-0.77). The paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) concurrent chemotherapy regimen was the independent predictor of cardiac complication (OR, 2.50; 95% CI 1.22-5.55; P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: For ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment, male sex, post-RT FEV1, MLD, and pre-RT monocyte were confirmed as significant predictors of postoperative pulmonary complications. A nomogram model including six risk factors was further established. The independent predictor of cardiac complication was TP concurrent chemotherapy.
BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored correlations of clinical factors and dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and predicted their risk by establishing a nomogram model. METHODS: Clinical and DVH parameters of ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment from 2002 to 2020 were collected. Postoperative cardiopulmonary complications were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was applied, and a nomogram model was constructed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were performed to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: Of the 307 ESCC patients enrolled in this study, 65 (21.2%) experienced pulmonary complications and 57 (18.6%) experienced cardiac complications. The following six risk factors were identified as independent risk factors for pulmonary complications by multivariate logistic regression analyses in the integrated model: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-9.70; P = 0.021), post-radiation therapy (RT) forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (OR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.28-0.90; P = 0.023), mean lung dose (MLD) (OR, 1.13; 95% CI 1.01-1.28; P = 0.041), and pre-RT monocyte (OR, 8.36; 95% CI 1.23-11.7; P = 0.03). The AUC of this integrated model was 0.705 (95% CI 0.64-0.77). The paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) concurrent chemotherapy regimen was the independent predictor of cardiac complication (OR, 2.50; 95% CI 1.22-5.55; P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: For ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment, male sex, post-RT FEV1, MLD, and pre-RT monocyte were confirmed as significant predictors of postoperative pulmonary complications. A nomogram model including six risk factors was further established. The independent predictor of cardiac complication was TP concurrent chemotherapy.