Literature DB >> 36074831

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.

David I Armstrong McKay1,2,3,4, Arie Staal1,2,5, Jesse F Abrams3, Ricarda Winkelmann6, Boris Sakschewski6, Sina Loriani6, Ingo Fetzer1,2, Sarah E Cornell1,2, Johan Rockström1,6, Timothy M Lenton3.   

Abstract

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

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Year:  2022        PMID: 36074831     DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Science        ISSN: 0036-8075            Impact factor:   63.714


  1 in total

1.  Reply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks.

Authors:  Luke Kemp; Chi Xu; Joanna Depledge; Kristie L Ebi; Goodwin Gibbins; Timothy A Kohler; Johan Rockström; Marten Scheffer; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Will Steffen; Timothy M Lenton
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2022-10-10       Impact factor: 12.779

  1 in total

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