| Literature DB >> 36045983 |
Hui Guan1,2.
Abstract
The current popular one with forecasting method simply studies for prediction, and insufficient consideration is given to the prediction of the evolution of product sales applied to Internet platforms. To improve the forecast effect and to realize the usage of the forecasting in line with "Internet+" surroundings, the product sales controllable correlation mining, personalized forecasting ways of counting, improve counting, and other corresponding algorithms, a "Internet + foreign trade" concept based on the controllable correlation comes up with the model of mobile prediction. The result can show that the sample has the opening features and dynamics of "Internet+" to prerealize the dynamic, intelligent, and quantitative qualitative prediction of export product sales based on the controllable correlation big data of cross-border e-commerce in the "Internet + foreign trade" environment. The comprehensive prediction effect of this model is obviously better than that of traditional models and has strong evolution and high practical value. This thesis has the benefits for promoting the technological development of cross-border e-commerce and making us cross the cross-border e-commerce industry.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 36045983 PMCID: PMC9420575 DOI: 10.1155/2022/4286148
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Comput Intell Neurosci
Figure 1Importance of each feature.
Figure 2Data analysis process.
Figure 3Prediction process based on data mining.
Figure 4The export products in the environment.
Figure 5The multiple linear regression method.
Figure 6Data analysis process.
Figure 7DPMES dynamic prediction model 3 algorithm model application examples.
Lag feature variable and sales volume correlation coefficient.
| Lag one-phase correlation coefficient | Significance | Lag two-phase correlation coefficient | Significance | Lag three-phase correlation coefficient | Significance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume | 0.412 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.120 | 0.000 |
| Flow rate | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.000 |
| Inventory | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.000 |
| SKU number | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.000 |
| Direct reduction amount | 0.394 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.109 | 0.038 |
| Full reduction amount | 0.365 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.077 | 0.146 |
| Coupon amount | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.392 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.000 |
| Additional purchase number | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| Additional collection number | 0.316 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.000 |
Experimental data analysis.
| Controllable relevance indicators (keywords) | Sales concern (range: 10–15) | Factor attention |
|---|---|---|
| Product categories | 9.976670 to 10.012,350 | Main sales product share |
| Total customer demand | 13.557320 to 13.687010 | Ratio of major audience groups, product demand |
| Customer buying psychology | 13.642350 to 13.75200 | Interests, purchasing power and behavior ratio |
| Product cycle | 10.547280 to 10.580150 | Manufacturing, sales cycle |
| Inventory | 10.469230 to 10.89905 | Purchasing quantity, backlog, inventory quantity, cost, replenishment, shipping quantity, inventory balance and transfer, storage location |
| Price | 14.682140 to 14.692050 | Cross-border payments, quotations, insurance, duties, costs, profits |
| Logistics | 10.467822 to 10.884332 | Warehousing, transportation and distribution, supply chain costs |
| Risks | 14.973471 to 14.981810 | Product quality and performance, return or exchange rate, credit rating |
Predictive evaluation on training set.
| Regression model | Characteristics | Parameters | R2 | RME | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear regression | All | — | 0.8693 | 5090 | 0.0675 |
| Linear regression | 12345678 | — | 0.8615 | 5214 | 0.0692 |
| Random forest | All | ntree = 300 | 3008 | 0.0320 | |
| Random forest 2 | 12345678 | ntree = 700 | 3237 | 0.0372 | |
| Support vector regression, linear | All | Kernel = “linear,” cost = 10, gamma = 0.0001 | 0.8557 | 5344 | 0.0646 |
| Support vector machine linear 2 | 12345678 | Kernel = “linear,” cost = 10, gamma = 0.0001 | 0.8513 | 5428 | 0.0664 |
| Support vector machine nonlinear | All | Kernel = “radial,” cost = 100, gamma = 0.001 | 4872 | 0.0594 | |
| Support vector machine nonlinear 2 | 12345678 | Kernel = “radial”, cost = 100, gamma = 0.001 | 5054 | 0.0630 | |
| BP neural network nonlinear | All | Size 18, maxit = 1000, linout = | 298 | 0.0041 | |
| BP neural network, nonlinear 2 | 12345678 | size40, maxit = 1000, linout = | 4026 | 0.0577 |
Figure 8Improves the algorithm validation results to visualize scatter plots.
Performance comparison of various models.
| Algorithm example | Reliability measure | Uncertainty distinction | Best search time (s) | Error factor | Controllable correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Literature [ | 19.0 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 7.0 | — |
| Literature [ | 18.1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | — |
| Literature [ | 18.7 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 10.2 |
| Literature [ | 19.1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 11.5 |
| C&M-CVPDSS model | 22.1 | 15.8 | 14.8 | 6.0 | 12.0 |
| Product marking failure prediction model | 19.7 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 12.5 |
| DPMES | 22.0 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 14.0 |
Is based on DPMES predictions.
| Quarterly | Expected value | Actual value | Predicted value | Prediction error ratio (%) | Confidence (%) | Inventory optimization efficiency (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21090 | 20240 | 20117 | 1.006 | 92.60 | 89.45 |
| 2 | 22588 | 23468 | 23240 | 1.010 | 92.18 | 90.51 |
| 3 | 24668 | 24889 | 24951 | 0.998 | 90.99 | 90.42 |
| 4 | 25850 | 25901 | 26001 | 0.996 | 93.50 | 91.30 |