| Literature DB >> 36033228 |
Agam Bansal1, Chandan Garg2, Essa Hariri1, Nicholas Kassis1, Amgad Mentias1, Amar Krishnaswamy1, Samir R Kapadia1.
Abstract
Background: Given the increasing healthcare costs, there is an interest in developing machine learning (ML) prediction models for estimating hospitalization charges. We use ML algorithms to predict hospitalization charges for patients undergoing transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TF-TAVR) utilizing the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database.Entities:
Keywords: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR); hospitalization charges; machine learning (ML)
Year: 2022 PMID: 36033228 PMCID: PMC9412209 DOI: 10.21037/cdt-21-717
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cardiovasc Diagn Ther ISSN: 2223-3652
Figure 1Distribution of adjusted hospitalization charges in patients hospitalized for undergoing TF-TAVR. TF-TAVR, transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement
Patient characteristics and adjusted hospitalization charges
| Patient characteristics/co-morbidities and complications | Adjusted hospitalization charges, mean (SD) | P value |
|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 variables | ||
| Year | 0.051 | |
| 2012 | 224,867.89 (174,978.61) | |
| 2013 | 215,298.70 (125,052.43) | |
| 2014 | 224,481.68 (133,795.22) | |
| 2015 | 223,339.75 (147,694.11) | |
| 2016 | 209,838.74 (114,120.60) | |
| Sex | 0.72 | |
| Male | 216,846.08 (139,030.20) | |
| Female | 218,375.34 (125,693.11) | |
| Race | 0.001 | |
| Caucasian | 216,681.73 (131,141.37) | |
| African American | 220,776.41 (143,384.43) | |
| Hispanic | 279,291.35 (167,575.43) | |
| Hospital region | 0.001 | |
| North-east | 236,153.86 (138,075.82) | |
| Mid-west | 182,217.13 (98,036.83) | |
| South | 204,133.57 (107,372.72) | |
| West | 263,406.45 (183,016.34) | |
| Hospital bed size | 0.001 | |
| Small | 219,672.79 (140,947.99) | |
| Medium | 228,039.07 (142,308.90) | |
| Large | 215,148.13 (130,246.14) | |
| Hospital location | 0.001 | |
| Rural | 133,955.97 (51,450.89) | |
| Urban non-teaching | 196,018.42 (124,189.82) | |
| Urban teaching | 220,734.69 (134,003.58) | |
| Elective admission | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 202,184.10 (112,270.59) | |
| No | 254,383.26 (167,198.82) | |
| PCI | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 300,271.4 (224,738.88) | |
| No | 214,475.13 (127,325.95) | |
| Fluid and electrolyte disorder | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 266,090.25 (182,707.36) | |
| No | 205,479.37 (114,267.54) | |
| Malnutrition disorder | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 389,909.56 (309,285.66) | |
| No | 213,328.60 (122,684.83) | |
| Congestive heart failure | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 223,463.49 (141,387.76) | |
| No | 199,535.96 (101,171.75) | |
| Coronary artery disease | 0.0015 | |
| Yes | 213,065.13 (121,492.59) | |
| No | 228,005.54 (156,055.49) | |
| Carotid artery disease | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 205,282.37 (113,821.03) | |
| No | 218,393.50 (134,167.09) | |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 0.90 | |
| Yes | 217,109.05 (119,996.06) | |
| No | 217,707.69 (137,121.41) | |
| Cardiac arrhythmias | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 227,709.27 (144,361.28) | |
| No | 201,005.29 (110,046.60) | |
| Atrial fibrillation | 0.0014 | |
| Yes | 225,601.66 (148,330.24) | |
| No | 211,607.15 (120,078.82) | |
| Conduction disorder | 0.007 | |
| Yes | 228,566.34 (135,369.89) | |
| No | 214,465.36 (132,168.17) | |
| DM controlled | 0.13 | |
| Yes | 211,977.57 (131,621.56) | |
| No | 219,488.61 (133,425.01) | |
| DM uncontrolled | 0.40 | |
| Yes | 222,887.88 (146,086.61) | |
| No | 216,942.75 (131,404.63) | |
| HTN controlled | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 231,814.23 (154,060.68) | |
| No | 201,310.42 (101,520.16) | |
| HTN uncontrolled | 0.0058 | |
| Yes | 225,023.68 (137,513.07) | |
| No | 212,766.25 (129,804.20) | |
| Chronic lung disease | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 228,425.16 (142,551.68) | |
| No | 210,898.06 (126,341.21) | |
| Coagulopathy | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 243,984.7 (153,000.23) | |
| No | 211,927.91 (127,644.4) | |
| Anemia | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 246,190.87 (168,560.13) | |
| No | 206,935.95 (115,319.60) | |
| Liver cirrhosis | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 260,175.69 (152,713.28) | |
| No | 217,109.58 (132,715.22) | |
| Dementia | 0.68 | |
| Yes | 221,249.86 (100,538.88) | |
| No | 217,342.25 (134,636.06) | |
| Smoking | 0.14 | |
| Yes | 210,113.43 (105,665.59) | |
| No | 218,906.05 (137,330.77) | |
| Obesity | 0.63 | |
| Yes | 215,083.23 (119,540.02) | |
| No | 217,992.06 (135,229.29) | |
| Solid tumor without metastasis | 0.56 | |
| Yes | 225,695.88 (126,797.43) | |
| No | 217,368.09 (133,136.86) | |
| Metastatic cancer | 0.0015 | |
| Yes | 311,428.4 (208,590.93) | |
| No | 217,054.27 (132,330.92) | |
| Lymphoma | 0.31 | |
| Yes | 240,161.57 (138,531.16) | |
| No | 217,343.94 (132,934.42) | |
| ESRD requiring dialysis | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 265,055.68 (144,392.49) | |
| No | 215,595.90 (132,149.81) | |
| CKD stage 5 | 0.75 | |
| Yes | 202,629.25 (98,134.53) | |
| No | 217,588.23 (133,058.95) | |
| CKD stage 4 | 0.003 | |
| Yes | 255,881.67 (192,066.29) | |
| No | 216,007.69 (129,836.85) | |
| CKD stage 3 | 0.68 | |
| Yes | 215,600.73 (119,676.91) | |
| No | 217,953.16 (135,541.62) | |
| CKD stage 1–2 | 0.89 | |
| Yes | 215,416.35 (113,650.63) | |
| No | 217,617.29 (133,508.59) | |
| Stage 2 variables | ||
| STEMI | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 501,699 (550,217.80) | |
| No | 216,798.48 (129,574.86) | |
| NSTEMI | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 303,898.16 (183,007.20) | |
| No | 215,099.61 (130,485.55) | |
| Cardiogenic shock | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 404,308.31 (355,471.88) | |
| No | 212,766.58 (118,381.33) | |
| Mechanical circulatory support device | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 389,175.93 (294,305.99) | |
| No | 214,489.27 (126,256.49) | |
| Mechanical ventilation | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 504,642.89 (336,264.50) | |
| No | 210,434.02 (115,121.91) | |
| Acute renal failure | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 314,855.94 (219,052.69) | |
| No | 201,970.45 (105,287.01) | |
| New Pacemaker Insertion | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 262,910.94 (124,743.62) | |
| No | 212,606.74 (132,939.22) | |
| In hospital sepsis | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 284,121.28 (220,394.64) | |
| No | 215,076.75 (127,971.09) | |
| Mortality | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 364,549.94 (255,226.28) | |
| No | 213,621.58 (125,851.16) | |
| Vascular complications | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 290,258.70 (210,534.51) | |
| No | 214,513.70 (127,874.78) | |
| Blood transfusion | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 273,505.70 (172,527.39) | |
| No | 208,734.09 (123,359.28) | |
| Acute stroke | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 285,180.84 (196,567.23) | |
| No | 216,478.06 (131,482.09) | |
| Cardiac tamponade | 0.001 | |
| Yes | 333,938.64 (243,989.46) | |
| No | 216,588.63 (131,300.13) | |
PCI, percutaneous coronary intervention; HTN, high blood pressure; ESRD, end-stage renal disease; CKD, chronic kidney disease; STEMI, ST segment elevation myocardial infarction; NSTEMI, non-STEMI; DM, diabetes mellitus.
Predictive performance of machine learning regression algorithms, mean and median models in predicting hospitalization costs in patients undergoing TAVR
| MAE | R2 score | RMSE | RMSLE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | ||||
| Random forest regression | 79,979.11 | 0.157 | 122,091.48 | 0.499 |
| Gradient boosting regression | 81,544.21 | 0.114 | 125,124.47 | 0.509 |
| KNN regression | 81,822.38 | 0.053 | 129,392.32 | 0.51 |
| MLP regression | 87,292.51 | 0.015 | 131,955.43 | 0.53 |
| Linear regression | 83,567.2 | 0.10 | 122,091.4 | 0.51 |
| Stage 2 | ||||
| Random forest regression | 76,200.09 | 0.256 | 114,665.82 | 0.480 |
| Gradient boosting regression | 80,541.18 | 0.146 | 125,124.47 | 0.502 |
| KNN regression | 78,316.34 | 0.125 | 124,354.55 | 0.488 |
| MLP regression | 84,443.79 | 0.082 | 127,426.43 | 0.522 |
| Linear regression | 79,194.55 | 0.213 | 117,967.61 | 0.495 |
| Stage 3 | ||||
| Random forest regression | 69,350.09 | 0.453 | 98,307.96 | 0.444 |
| Gradient boosting regression | 74,903.48 | 0.27 | 114,208.19 | 0.463 |
| KNN regression | 69,679.54 | 0.409 | 102,186.88 | 0.442 |
| MLP regression | 71,833.24 | 0.388 | 104,002.02 | 0.457 |
| Linear regression | 71,160.20 | 0.405 | 102,547.22 | 0.453 |
| Median | 83,452.40 | −0.052 | 136,387.27 | 0.518 |
| Mean | 87,879.67 | −0.00057 | 133,006.56 | 0.540 |
TAVR, transcatheter aortic valve replacement; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean squared error; RMSLE, root mean squared logarithmic error; KNN, k-nearest neighbors; MLP, multilayer perceptron.
Figure 2Top features for predicting hospitalization charges in patients undergoing TF-TAVR, stage wise. TAVR, transcatheter aortic valve replacement; TF-TAVR, transfemoral TAVR.
Figure 3Comparison of actual and stage wise predicted hospitalization charges in patients undergoing TF-TAVR for the first 20 patients. TF-TAVR, transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement.
Figure 4Lift charts for the validation (testing cohorts) for stage 1, 2, and 3.
Decile wise actual and stage wise predicted hospitalization costs in patients undergoing TF-TAVR
| Deciles | Actual hospitalization cost ($) | Stage 1 predicted hospitalization cost ($) | Stage 2 predicted hospitalization cost ($) | Stage 3 predicted hospitalization cost ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 225,526.82 | 221,053.83 | 223,444.37 | 222,345.92 |
| 1 | 222,735.92 | 223,061.71 | 221,752.52 | 220,706.20 |
| 2 | 219,101.85 | 219,483.58 | 218,695.32 | 217,788.57 |
| 3 | 218,321.29 | 221,001.81 | 218,306.04 | 217,550.80 |
| 4 | 219,647.94 | 221,441.96 | 221,086.45 | 221,266.57 |
| 5 | 220,886.87 | 220,847.21 | 221,587.54 | 221,807.53 |
| 6 | 220,671.16 | 221,302.26 | 222,426.94 | 221,743.26 |
| 7 | 222,169.46 | 220,758.07 | 222,452.45 | 223,556.07 |
| 8 | 219,366.78 | 221,767.46 | 222,100.56 | 220,122.74 |
| 9 | 226,741.90 | 222,864.56 | 222,896.01 | 225,652.89 |
TF-TAVR, transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement