A Practical Risk-Based Model for Early Warning of Seafarer Errors Using Integrated Bayesian Network and SPAR-H.

Unsafe crew acts (UCAs) related to human errors are the main contributors to maritime accidents. The prediction of unsafe crew acts will provide an early warning for maritime accidents, which is significant to shipping companies. However, there exist gaps between the prediction models developed by researchers and those adopted by practitioners in human risk analysis (HRA) of the maritime industry. In addition, most research regarding human factors of maritime safety has concentrated on hazard identification or accident analysis, but not on early warning of UCAs. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) version of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method to predict the probability of seafarers' unsafe acts. After the identification of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) that influence seafarers' unsafe acts during navigation, the developed prediction model, which integrates the practicability of SPAR-H and the forward and backward inference functions of BN, is adopted to evaluate the probabilistic risk of unsafe acts and PSFs. The model can also be used when the available information is insufficient. Case studies demonstrate the practicability of the model in quantitatively predicting unsafe crew acts. The method allows evaluating whether a seafarer is capable of fulfilling their responsibility and providing an early warning for decision-makers, thereby avoiding human errors and sequentially preventing maritime accidents. The method can also be considered as a starting point for applying the efforts of HRA researchers to the real world for practitioners.