| Literature DB >> 35967705 |
María Flor1,2, Armando Ortuño1,2, Begoña Guirao3.
Abstract
Introduction: The transport and mobility sector is experiencing profound transformations. These changes are mainly due to: environmental awareness, the increase in the population of large urban areas and the size of cities, the aging of the population and the emergence of relevant technological innovations that have changed consumption habits, such as electronic commerce or the sharing economy. The introduction of new services such as Uber or Cabify is transforming urban and metropolitan mobility, which has to adapt to this new scenario and the very concept of mobility. Objective: Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate whether ride-hailing platforms substitute or complement public transport to reduce accident rates, considering the two basic transport zones of Madrid: "The Central Almond" and the periphery.Entities:
Keywords: injuries; public transport; ride-hailing; road safety; traffic fatalities
Year: 2022 PMID: 35967705 PMCID: PMC9363903 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.951258
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Psychol ISSN: 1664-1078
Figure 1(A) Transport zones, (B) BUS lines, and (C) METRO lines. Source: Own elaboration. 1-Center; 2-Arganzuela; 3-Retiro; 4-Salamanca; 5-Chamartín; 6-Tetuán; 7-Chamberí; 8-Fuencarral-El Pardo; 9-Moncloa-Aravaca; 10-Latina; 11-Carabanchel; 12-Usera; 13-Puente de Vallecas; 14-Moratalaz; 15-Ciudad Lineal; 16-Hortaleza; 17-Villaverde; 18-Villa de Vallecas; 19-Vicálvaro; 20-San Blas-Canillejas; 21-Barajas.
Figure 2(A) Number of accidents at weekends and public holidays; (B) number of serious injuries and deaths; and (C) number of minor injuries by district in Madrid in the period 2013–2019. Source: Own elaboration. 1-Center; 2-Arganzuela; 3-Retiro; 4-Salamanca; 5-Chamartín; 6-Tetuán; 7-Chamberí; 8-Fuencarral-El Pardo; 9-Moncloa-Aravaca; 10-Latina; 11-Carabanchel; 12-Usera; 13-Puente de Vallecas; 14-Moratalaz; 15-Ciudad Lineal; 16-Hortaleza; 17-Villaverde; 18-Villa de Vallecas; 19-Vicálvaro; 20-San Blas-Canillejas; 21-Barajas.
Figure 3Spatial distribution of the independent variables analyzed: (A) Average population density in the districts of Madrid analyzed in the period 2013–2019; (B) Average household income in the districts of Madrid analyzed in the period 2013–2019; (C) Average number of leisure establishments in the districts of Madrid analyzed in the period 2013–2019; (D) Average number of parking spaces for residents and rotational spaces in the districts of Madrid analyzed in the period 2013–2019; (E) Location of the bus stops in the districts of Madrid; (F) Location of metro stations in the districts of Madrid. 1-Center; 2-Arganzuela; 3-Retiro; 4-Salamanca; 5-Chamartín; 6-Tetuán; 7-Chamberí; 8-Fuencarral-El Pardo; 9-Moncloa-Aravaca; 10-Latina; 11-Carabanchel; 12-Usera; 13-Puente de Vallecas; 14-Moratalaz; 15-Ciudad Lineal; 16-Hortaleza; 17-Villaverde; 18-Villa de Vallecas; 19-Vicálvaro; 20-San Blas-Canillejas; 21-Barajas.
Variables source: own research.
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| Exposure | |||
| Population | Number of inhabitants in each district analyzed | Inhab. | Data bank: Population by district and neighborhood (City Council of Madrid, n.d.b) |
| Primary variable | |||
| Ride-hailing Services | Binary indicator 1: Uber or Cabify presence 0: neither Uber nor Cabify | ||
| Socioeconomic | |||
| Population density | Demographic variable that measures the number of people who live in each district, considering the population and area. | Inhab./ha | Statistical Yearbook Chapter I: Territory and Environment (City Council of Madrid, |
| socioeconomic status | Indicator calculated based on the average income per household and district | % | Urban Audit (City Council of Madrid, n.d.c) and (National Institute of Statistics, |
| Land use | Variable that measures the number of establishments dedicated to the catering, leisure, and entertainment activities per hectare | Establishments/ha | Data bank. Economy: census of business premises and activities (City Council of Madrid, n.d.d) |
| Public transport and cost | |||
| Bus stop | Variable that measures the potential demand of each stop, considering the population density (inhab./ha) and the density of stops (Bus Stop/ha). | Inhab./Bus St | Madrid Regional Transport Consortium (CRTM) |
| METRO & Suburban train stations | Variable that measures the potential demand of each station, considering the population density (inhab./ha) and the density of stations (Stations/ha). | Inhab./Stations | |
| Diesel cost | Average Diesel Cost | €/liter | (Ministry for the Ecological Transition, n.d) |
| Petrol cost | Average Petrol Cost | €/liter | |
| Transport policies | |||
| Resident & rotational parking | Number of resident and rotational parking spaces in each district | Statistical Yearbook Chapter VII: Traffic and Transportation (City Council of Madrid, | |
| Low emission zone (LEZ) | Year and district dummy variables: | ||
| Weather | |||
| Rain | Number of rainy days per year in Madrid | State Meteorology Agency (AEMET). | |
Descriptive statistics.
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| Dependent variables | |||||
| Minor injuries | 147 | 1,065 | 130 | 215.431 | 564.014 |
| Serious injuries and deaths | 147 | 80 | 2 | 16.642 | 45.326 |
| Accident at the weekend and Public holidays | 147 | 36 | 1 | 8.628 | 17.939 |
| Independent variables | |||||
| Exposure | |||||
| Population | 147 | 261.118 | 45.721 | 54,451.08 | 153,421.7 |
| Primary variable | |||||
| Ride-hailing | 147 | 1 | 0 | 0.496 | 0.571 |
| Socioeconomic | |||||
| Log population density | 147 | 2.48 | 0.990 | 0.472 | 1.968 |
| Socioeconomic status | 147 | 7.465 | 7.090 | 0.105 | 7.326 |
| Land use | |||||
| Leisure establishments | 147 | 6.288 | 0.325 | 1.324 | 1.048 |
| Public transport and cost | |||||
| Log bus stop | 147 | 2.992 | 2.520 | 0.118 | 2.829 |
| Log metro & suburban train station | 147 | 4.491 | 3.657 | 0.218 | 4.095 |
| Diesel cost | 147 | 1.385 | 1.061 | 1.107 | 1.221 |
| Petrol cost | 147 | 1.483 | 1.216 | 0.086 | 1.345 |
| Transport policies | |||||
| Log residential & rotational parking | 147 | 4.237 | 2.324 | 0.488 | 3.544 |
| Low emission zone | 147 | 1 | 0 | 0.824 | 0.006 |
| Weather | |||||
| Log rain | 147 | 2.053 | 1.778 | 0.097 | 1.947 |
Source: own research.
Results of the fitted models.
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| Log-Likelihood at convergence | −625.2949 | −625.2949 | −666.6002 | −966.6002 | −501,857 | −501,857 |
| Log–likelihood with constant only | −542.4282 | −534.0994 | −852.7459 | −769.2218 | −436,359 | −431.1889 |
| McFadden pseudo R2 | 0.133 | 0.146 | 0.118 | 0.204 | 0.131 | 0.141 |
| AIC | 1110.856 | 1096.199 | 1731.492 | 1566.444 | 898.7182 | 890.3777 |
| BIC | 1149.732 | 1138.065 | 1770.368 | 1608.31 | 937.5939 | 932.2438 |
| Dispersion parameter, | 0.0283 (0.0183–0.0437) | 0.0223 (0.0174–0.0286) | 0.0196 (0.008–0.0492) | |||
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| 0.9753 | 0.98 | 0.983 | |||
| /ln_r | 5.247 (10.46) | 4.329 (12.58) | 6.365 (5.87) | |||
| /ln_s | 4.979 (9.29) | 4.707 (12.99) | 4.291 (7.47) | |||
| LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) | 12.81 | 178.88 | 8.92 | |||
| Prob≥chibar2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | |||
| Hausman Test: chi2(8) | 14.82 | 10.21 | 5.27 | |||
Source: Own research.
Results of the estimated Model (z-statistics in parentheses).
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| Primary variable | |||
| Ride-hailing | −0.285*** (−6.68) | 0.0621*** (3.42) | −0.257*** (−4.75) |
| Socioeconomic | |||
| Log population density | 0.386** (3.26) | 0.369** (3.11) | 0.345* (2.50) |
| Socioeconomic status | −0.645 (−1.11) | −0.744 (−1.58) | −0.819 (−1.23) |
| Land use | |||
| Leisure establishments | 0.0626 (1.34) | 0.0789* (2.40) | 0.133* (2.50) |
| Public Transport and Costs | |||
| Log BUS stop | – 1.166* (– 2.43) | – 0.974* (– 2.16) | – 1.251* (– 2.24) |
| Log METRO-suburban train station | −0.531+ (−1.67) | −0.310 (−1.23) | −0.176 (−0.48) |
| Diesel cost | −5.851*** (−5.82) | 0.186 (0.59) | −5.179*** (−4.07) |
| Gasoline cost | 6.508*** (4.92) | −0.178 (−0.43) | 5.738*** (3.44) |
| Transport Policies | |||
| Log Residential & Rotational Parking | – 0.0366 (– 0.35) | 0.00880 (0.11) | – 0.0007 (– 0.01) |
| Low Emission Zone | −0.870** (−2.86) | −0.0805 (−1.25) | −0.733* (−2.27) |
| Weather | |||
| Log Rain | −0.0405 (−0.17) | −0.0941 (−1.21) | 0.02 (0.07) |
| Exposure | |||
| Ln (Population) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Log likelihood | – 534.0994 | – 796,222 | −431,189 |
| Wald chi2 | 208.18 | 114.40 | 130.73 |
| Prob>chibar | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| /ln_r | 5.247*** (10.46) | 4.329*** (12.58) | 6.365*** (5.87) |
| /ln_s | 4.979*** (9.29) | 4.707*** (12.99) | 4.291*** (7.47) |
| LR test vs. pooled: chibar2 (01) | 12.81 | 178.88 | 8.92 |
| Prob ≥ chibar2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
+p <0.1; *p <0.05; **p <0.01; ***p <0.001. Source: own research.
Results of the estimated Model (z–statistics in parentheses).
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| Socioeconomic | |||
| Log population density | 0.288*** (2.38) | 0.246* (1.96) | 0.259+ (1.77) |
| Socioeconomic status | −0.110 (−0.16) | −0.435 (−0.86) | −0.282 (−0.35) |
| land use | |||
| Leisure establishments | 0.0511 (1.07) | 0.0816* (2.15) | 0.121* (2.17) |
| Public transport and costs | |||
| Log BUS stop | – 1.678** (−3.06) | −1.492** (−3.10) | 0.0663 (0.17) |
| Log METRO-suburban train station | −0,251 (−0.78) | 0.0891 (0.30) | −0.176 (−0.48) |
| Diesel cost | −5.848*** (−5.83) | 0.212 (0.68) | −5.174*** (−4.07) |
| Petrol cost | 6.517*** (4.95) | −0.198 (−0.48) | 5.749*** (3.45) |
| Transport policies | |||
| Log residential and rotational parking | −0.0295 (– 0.27) | 0.0422 (0.53) | 0.0668 (0.49) |
| Low emission zone | −0.836** (−2.75) | −0.0706 (−1.09) | −0.699* (−2.16) |
| Weather | |||
| Log Rain | −0.0493 (−0.20) | −0.0927 (−1.19) | 0.0132 (0.04) |
| Interaction | |||
| Uber/Cabify entry*Central Almond | −0.305*** (−4.91) | 0.0571* (2.02) | −0.0278*** (−3.57) |
| Uber/Cabify entry*Periphery | −0.549*** (−3.63) | −0.246+ (−1.65) | −0.497** (−2.65) |
| Exposure | |||
| Ln (Population) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Log likelihood | −532.27079 | −767.019 | −430.147 |
| Wald chi2 | 223.64 | 133.33 | 138.61 |
| Prob>chibar | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| /ln_r | 5.426*** (10.41) | 4.508*** (13.24) | 6.512*** (5.77) |
| /ln_s | 5.139*** (9.15) | 4.880*** (13.60) | 4.391*** (7.32) |
| LR test vs. pooled: chibar2 (01) | 10.40 | 165.50 | 7.71 |
| Prob ≥ chibar2 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
Source: Own research. +p <0.1; *p <0.05; **p <0.01; ***p <0.001.