Dominance by non-native grasses suppresses long-term shifts in plant species composition and productivity in response to global change.

Climate warming and increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition are both predicted to alter the primary productivity of grass-dominated systems in the coming decades. In field experiments, while both factors can have substantial effects on productivity in the initial years, further changes can be delayed by lags in plant species composition responses. However, the effects of experiment age can be confounded by annual variability in environmental conditions, and a replicate experiment established at a later time is therefore needed to separate these effects. We added new warming and nitrogen plots to an ongoing (14 year-old) field experiment in a grass-dominated temperate old field to compare the short-term vs. long-term treatment effects on plant productivity and species composition, while controlling for interannual environmental variability. We predicted treatment effects on relative species abundances would be most pronounced in the old plots. Although treatment responses of productivity (specifically to N addition) were highest in the old plots in the first year, by the second year there were no interactions between treatment and plot age. Moreover, there were no plot age effects on plant species composition, which was associated with continued dominance of non-native grasses. Our results therefore suggest that despite initial increases in productivity in response to global change, dominance by non-native grasses can suppress the emergence of further long-term treatment effects on productivity by inhibiting the responses of other species.