Shannan N Rich1,2, Inyoung Jun3, Jiang Bian4, Christina Boucher5, Kartik Cherabuddi6, J Glenn Morris7,8, Mattia Prosperi3. 1. Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and Medicine, University of Florida, PO Box 100009, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA. shannanrich@ufl.edu. 2. Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. shannanrich@ufl.edu. 3. Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and Medicine, University of Florida, PO Box 100009, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA. 4. Department of Health Outcomes and Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. 5. Department of Computer and Information Science and Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. 6. Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. 7. Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. 8. Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are common infections for which initial antibiotic treatment decisions are empirically based, often without antibiotic susceptibility testing to evaluate resistance, increasing the risk of inappropriate therapy. We hypothesized that models based on electronic health records (EHR) could assist in the identification of patients at higher risk for antibiotic-resistant UTIs and help guide the selection of antimicrobials in hospital and clinic settings. METHODS: EHR from multiple centers in North-Central Florida, including patient demographics, previous diagnoses, prescriptions, and antibiotic susceptibility tests, were obtained for 9990 patients diagnosed with a UTI during 2011-2019. Decision trees, boosted logistic regression (BLR), and random forest models were developed to predict resistance to common antibiotics used for UTI management [sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (SXT), nitrofurantoin (NIT), ciprofloxacin (CIP)] and multidrug resistance (MDR). RESULTS: There were 6307 (63.1%) individuals with a UTI caused by a resistant microorganism. Overall, the population was majority female, white, non-Hispanic, and older aged (mean = 60.7 years). The BLR models yielded the highest discriminative ability, as measured by the out-of-bag area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC), for the resistance outcomes [AUROC = 0.58 (SXT), 0.62 (NIT), 0.64 (CIP), and 0.66 (MDR)]. Variables in the best performing model were sex, history of UTIs, catheterization, renal disease, dementia, hemiplegia/paraplegia, and hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: The discriminative ability of the prediction models was moderate. Nonetheless, these models based solely on EHR demonstrate utility for the identification of patients at higher risk for resistant infections. These models, in turn, may help guide clinical decision-making on the ordering of urine cultures and decisions regarding empiric therapy for these patients.
INTRODUCTION: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are common infections for which initial antibiotic treatment decisions are empirically based, often without antibiotic susceptibility testing to evaluate resistance, increasing the risk of inappropriate therapy. We hypothesized that models based on electronic health records (EHR) could assist in the identification of patients at higher risk for antibiotic-resistant UTIs and help guide the selection of antimicrobials in hospital and clinic settings. METHODS: EHR from multiple centers in North-Central Florida, including patient demographics, previous diagnoses, prescriptions, and antibiotic susceptibility tests, were obtained for 9990 patients diagnosed with a UTI during 2011-2019. Decision trees, boosted logistic regression (BLR), and random forest models were developed to predict resistance to common antibiotics used for UTI management [sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (SXT), nitrofurantoin (NIT), ciprofloxacin (CIP)] and multidrug resistance (MDR). RESULTS: There were 6307 (63.1%) individuals with a UTI caused by a resistant microorganism. Overall, the population was majority female, white, non-Hispanic, and older aged (mean = 60.7 years). The BLR models yielded the highest discriminative ability, as measured by the out-of-bag area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC), for the resistance outcomes [AUROC = 0.58 (SXT), 0.62 (NIT), 0.64 (CIP), and 0.66 (MDR)]. Variables in the best performing model were sex, history of UTIs, catheterization, renal disease, dementia, hemiplegia/paraplegia, and hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: The discriminative ability of the prediction models was moderate. Nonetheless, these models based solely on EHR demonstrate utility for the identification of patients at higher risk for resistant infections. These models, in turn, may help guide clinical decision-making on the ordering of urine cultures and decisions regarding empiric therapy for these patients.