Meixin Zhao1, Kilian Kluge2,3, Laszlo Papp4, Marko Grahovac2, Shaomin Yang5, Chunting Jiang1, Denis Krajnc4, Clemens P Spielvogel2,3, Boglarka Ecsedi4, Alexander Haug2,3, Shiwei Wang6, Marcus Hacker2, Weifang Zhang7, Xiang Li8. 1. Department of Nuclear Medicine, Peking University Third Hospital, 49 North Garden Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, People's Republic of China. 2. Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Division of Nuclear Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Floor 3L, 1090, Vienna, Austria. 3. Christian Doppler Laboratory for Applied Metabolomics (CDLAM), Vienna, Austria. 4. QIMP Team, Center for Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. 5. Department of Pathology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China. 6. Evomics Medical Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China. 7. Department of Nuclear Medicine, Peking University Third Hospital, 49 North Garden Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, People's Republic of China. tsy1997@126.com. 8. Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Division of Nuclear Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Floor 3L, 1090, Vienna, Austria. xiang.li@meduniwien.ac.at.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the ability of machine learning (ML) models trained on clinical data and 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose(FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) radiomics to predict overall survival (OS), tumor grade (TG), and histologic growth pattern risk (GPR) in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients. METHODS: A total of 421 treatment-naive patients with histologically-proven LUAD and available FDG PET/CT imaging were retrospectively included. Four cohorts were assessed for predicting 4-year OS (n = 276), 3-year OS (n = 280), TG (n = 298), and GPR (n = 265). FDG-avid lesions were delineated, and 2082 radiomics features were extracted and combined with endpoint-specific clinical parameters. ML models were built for the prediction of 4-year OS (M4OS), 3-year OS (M3OS), tumor grading (MTG), and histologic growth pattern risk (MGPR). A 100-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation with 80:20 training to validation split was employed as a performance evaluation for all models. The association between the M4OS and M3OS predictions with OS was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) was the highest for M4OS (AUC 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 86.7-88.7), followed by M3OS (AUC 0.84, CI 82.9-84.9), while MTG and MGPR performed equally well (AUC 0.76, CI 74.4-77.9, CI 74.6-78, respectively). Predictions of M4OS (hazard ratio (HR) -2.4, CI -2.47 to -1.64, p < 0.05) and M3OS (HR -2.36, CI -2.79 to -1.93, p < 0.05) were independently associated with OS. CONCLUSION: ML models are able to predict long-term survival outcomes in LUAD patients with high accuracy. Furthermore, histologic grade and predominant growth pattern risk can be predicted with satisfactory accuracy. KEY POINTS: • Machine learning models trained on pre-therapeutic PET/CT radiomics enable highly accurate long-term survival prediction of patients with lung adenocarcinoma. • Highly accurate survival predictions are achieved in lung adenocarcinoma patients despite heterogenous histologies and treatment regimens. • Radiomic machine learning models are able to predict lung adenocarcinoma tumor grade and histologic growth pattern risk with satisfactory accuracy.
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the ability of machine learning (ML) models trained on clinical data and 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose(FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) radiomics to predict overall survival (OS), tumor grade (TG), and histologic growth pattern risk (GPR) in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients. METHODS: A total of 421 treatment-naive patients with histologically-proven LUAD and available FDG PET/CT imaging were retrospectively included. Four cohorts were assessed for predicting 4-year OS (n = 276), 3-year OS (n = 280), TG (n = 298), and GPR (n = 265). FDG-avid lesions were delineated, and 2082 radiomics features were extracted and combined with endpoint-specific clinical parameters. ML models were built for the prediction of 4-year OS (M4OS), 3-year OS (M3OS), tumor grading (MTG), and histologic growth pattern risk (MGPR). A 100-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation with 80:20 training to validation split was employed as a performance evaluation for all models. The association between the M4OS and M3OS predictions with OS was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) was the highest for M4OS (AUC 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 86.7-88.7), followed by M3OS (AUC 0.84, CI 82.9-84.9), while MTG and MGPR performed equally well (AUC 0.76, CI 74.4-77.9, CI 74.6-78, respectively). Predictions of M4OS (hazard ratio (HR) -2.4, CI -2.47 to -1.64, p < 0.05) and M3OS (HR -2.36, CI -2.79 to -1.93, p < 0.05) were independently associated with OS. CONCLUSION: ML models are able to predict long-term survival outcomes in LUAD patients with high accuracy. Furthermore, histologic grade and predominant growth pattern risk can be predicted with satisfactory accuracy. KEY POINTS: • Machine learning models trained on pre-therapeutic PET/CT radiomics enable highly accurate long-term survival prediction of patients with lung adenocarcinoma. • Highly accurate survival predictions are achieved in lung adenocarcinoma patients despite heterogenous histologies and treatment regimens. • Radiomic machine learning models are able to predict lung adenocarcinoma tumor grade and histologic growth pattern risk with satisfactory accuracy.
Authors: Sara Carvalho; Ralph T H Leijenaar; Esther G C Troost; Janna E van Timmeren; Cary Oberije; Wouter van Elmpt; Lioe-Fee de Geus-Oei; Johan Bussink; Philippe Lambin Journal: PLoS One Date: 2018-03-01 Impact factor: 3.240