Intrinsic water-use efficiency influences establishment in Encelia farinosa.

We describe establishment of Encelia farinosa, a drought-deciduous shrub common to the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, based on annual observations of two populations between 1980 and 2020. Only 11 establishment events of 50 + yearlings (0.02-0.03 individuals m-2) occurred during this monitoring period; in 68% of the years fewer than 10 yearlings were established. Yearling survival to adulthood (age 4) ranged from 88 to 5% and was significantly related to cumulative precipitation. Juvenile survival rates were lowest during the current megadrought period. We calculated intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) and observed the widest variations in iWUE values among the youngest plants. Among juveniles, surviving yearlings with the lowest iWUE values exhibited upward ontogenetic shifts in iWUE values, whereas those yearlings with the highest initial iWUE values exhibited little if any change. Juvenile size, higher iWUE values, and greater likelihood of surviving were all positively related with each other over the past several decades. Furthermore, iWUE and photosynthetic capacity were positively related to each other, providing a mechanistic explanation for why increased iWUE values among juveniles could lead to greater survival rates and to larger plants under water-deficit conditions. We posit that there is bi-directional selection for genotypic variations in iWUE values among E. farinosa and that this variation is selected for because of interannual environmental heterogeneity in precipitation and VPD associated with both high- and low-frequency climate cycles. Extreme drought cycles may favor plants with higher iWUE values, whereas more mesic periods may allow for greater persistence of lower iWUE genotypes.