Ugo Fedeli1, Veronica Casotto1, Elena Schievano1, Enzo Bonora2, Giacomo Zoppini3. 1. Epidemiological Department, Azienda Zero, Veneto Region, Italy. 2. Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona, Italy. 3. Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona, Italy. Electronic address: giacomo.zoppini@univr.it.
Abstract
AIMS: The aim of this study is to assess the role of diabetes as a cause of death through different epidemic waves of COVID-19. METHODS: The annual percentage change in age-standardized rates (APC) was estimated for diabetes as the underlying (UCOD) and as multiple causes of death (MCOD) in 2008-2019. Diabetes-related deaths in 2020 were compared to the 2018-2019 average. SARIMA models were applied to monthly excess in mortality considering seasonality and long-term trends. RESULTS: 2018-2019-Age-standardized mortality rates decreased, especially among females (MCOD: APC -2.49, 95%CI -3.01/-1.97%). In 2020, deaths increased by 19% (95%CI 13-25%) for UCOD, and by 27% (95%CI 24-30%) for MCOD. Diabetes and COVID-19 accounted for 74% of such excess. During the first epidemic wave, the increase in observed rates vs predicted by the model was larger in males (March +39%, April +46%) than in females (+30% and +32%). In the second wave, a huge excess of similar magnitude was observed in the two sexes; rates in December exceeded those predicted by more than 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic abruptly interrupted a long-term declining trend in mortality associated to diabetes. MCOD analyses are warranted to fully estimate the impact of epidemic waves on diabetes-related mortality.
AIMS: The aim of this study is to assess the role of diabetes as a cause of death through different epidemic waves of COVID-19. METHODS: The annual percentage change in age-standardized rates (APC) was estimated for diabetes as the underlying (UCOD) and as multiple causes of death (MCOD) in 2008-2019. Diabetes-related deaths in 2020 were compared to the 2018-2019 average. SARIMA models were applied to monthly excess in mortality considering seasonality and long-term trends. RESULTS: 2018-2019-Age-standardized mortality rates decreased, especially among females (MCOD: APC -2.49, 95%CI -3.01/-1.97%). In 2020, deaths increased by 19% (95%CI 13-25%) for UCOD, and by 27% (95%CI 24-30%) for MCOD. Diabetes and COVID-19 accounted for 74% of such excess. During the first epidemic wave, the increase in observed rates vs predicted by the model was larger in males (March +39%, April +46%) than in females (+30% and +32%). In the second wave, a huge excess of similar magnitude was observed in the two sexes; rates in December exceeded those predicted by more than 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic abruptly interrupted a long-term declining trend in mortality associated to diabetes. MCOD analyses are warranted to fully estimate the impact of epidemic waves on diabetes-related mortality.