| Literature DB >> 35802590 |
Luděk Berec1,2,3, Martin Šmíd3,4, Lenka Přibylová5, Ondřej Májek6,7, Tomáš Pavlík6,7, Jiří Jarkovský6,7, Milan Zajíček4, Jakub Weiner3,8, Tamara Barusová9,10, Jan Trnka11.
Abstract
Studies demonstrating the waning of post-vaccination and post-infection immunity against covid-19 generally analyzed a limited range of vaccines or subsets of populations. Using Czech national health data from the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic till November 20, 2021 we estimated the risks of reinfection, breakthrough infection, hospitalization and death by a Cox regression adjusted for sex, age, vaccine type and vaccination status. Vaccine effectiveness against infection declined from 87% at 0-2 months after the second dose to 53% at 7-8 months for BNT162b2 vaccine, from 90% at 0-2 months to 65% at 7-8 months for mRNA-1273, and from 83% at 0-2 months to 55% at 5-6 months for the ChAdOx1-S. Effectiveness against hospitalization and deaths declined by about 15% and 10%, respectively, during the first 6-8 months. Boosters (third dose) returned the protection to the levels observed shortly after dose 2. In unvaccinated, previously infected individuals the protection against infection declined from 97% after 2 months to 72% at 18 months. Our results confirm the waning of vaccination-induced immunity against infection and a smaller decline in the protection against hospitalization and death. Boosting restores the original vaccine effectiveness. Post-infection immunity also decreases over time.Entities:
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Year: 2022 PMID: 35802590 PMCID: PMC9269461 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270801
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.752
Fig 1Dynamics of vaccination in the Czech Republic.
Specific days in which vaccination was open to an age group or professional or other category are specified in S1 Table in S2 File.
Fig 2Vaccine effectiveness against infection.
Vaccine-acquired immunity against infection with respect to the delay from the full vaccine application, including the effect of a booster vaccine dose.
Fig 3Estimating potential statistical differences between the vaccines.
A Z-test has been performed to test for those differences. For each pair of covariates (each covariate is characterized by the vaccine and the time interval since completing the corresponding vaccination scheme), a color is assigned to indicate a degree of statistical significance: blue for 1% (|Z| > 2.576), red for 5% (2.576 ≥ |Z| > 1.960), and gray for |Z| ≤ 1.960. Moreover, only pairs with positive values of the test statistic Z are plotted, indicating a positive difference between a respective y-axis covariate and x-axis covariate (values symmetric around the diagonal are negative with the same absolute value). The axis labels are composed of a capital letter (P = BNT162b2 vaccine, M = mRNA-1273 vaccine, A = ChAdOx1-S vaccine, and J = Ad26.COV2-S vaccine) and a number range (months since full vaccination) or ‘boost’ (3rd vaccine dose).
Estimated increase of breakthrough infection hazard ratios (HRs) in times of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant dominance for age groups having started vaccination in the same month.
| Vaccine | March (age 70–80y) | April (age 55–69y) | May (age 35–54y) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | |
| BNT162b2 | 1.28 | 1.09–1.52 | 1.04 | 0.95–1.14 | 1.33 | 1.27–1.40 |
| mRNA-1273 | 0.82 | 0.41–1.67 | 1.56 | 1.08–2.25 | 1.59 | 1.29–1.98 |
| ChAdOx1-S | 1.64 | 1.05–2.57 | 1.12 | 0.74–1.70 | 1.24 | 0.82–1.86 |
| Ad26.COV2-S | 2.70 | 0.37–19.63 | 0.40 | 0.20–0.78 | 0.91 | 0.34–2.43 |
Vaccine effectiveness against infection after administering the booster vaccine dose for various possible combinations of primary (columns) and booster (rows) vaccines (with the exception of Janssen due to insufficient data).
Hazard ratios (HRs) are given.
| Vaccine | BNT162b2 | mRNA-1273 | ChAdOx1-S | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VE | 95% CI | VE | 95% CI | VE | 95% CI | |
| BNT162b2 | 0.92 | 0.91–0.92 | 0.94 | 0.91–0.96 | 0.82 | 0.68–0.9 |
| mRNA-1273 | 0.92 | 0.88–0.95 | 0.94 | 0.91–0.95 | 0.91 | 0.63–0.98 |
Fig 4Infection-acquired immunity against reinfection with respect to the delay from the prior infection.
The delay 0–2 months is not considered as a new infection which implies 100% effectiveness by definition.