| Literature DB >> 35785405 |
Abstract
Focusing on publicly traded U.S. eating & dining and lodging firms from 01July2019 to 30October2020, this paper examines investor reaction to restaurant and hotel firms throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that there is no consensus on buying or selling shares of different hospitality firms in the beginning. Consistent with the behavioral theory, the market reaction is mainly negative to restaurant firms matching with investors' negative sentiments while investors are indifferent towards lodging firms. In later stages, investors trade less stocks, and the buy pressure in the market leads to a positive reaction to both types of firms.Entities:
Keywords: Behavioral theory; Covid-19; Eating & dining firms; Hospitality sector; Investors; Lodging firms
Year: 2022 PMID: 35785405 PMCID: PMC9238027 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103099
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Financ Res Lett ISSN: 1544-6131
Definition of variables.
| Variables | Description |
|---|---|
| Post | The daily dummy variable that is equal to one for the Covid period; and zero between 01 July 2019 and 28 February 2020. |
| The daily stock return in excess of the risk-free rate that is proxied by the one month T-Bill rate. | |
| The amount of shares traded daily, in millions. | |
| The amount of shares traded multiplied by the daily stock return, in ten thousands. | |
| The daily closing price multiplied by common shares outstanding, in billions USD. | |
| The daily market return in excess of the risk-free rate that is proxied by the one month T-Bill rate. ( | |
| SMB (Small Minus Big) is the average return on the nine small stock portfolios minus the average return on the nine big stock portfolios. ( | |
| HML (High Minus Low) is the average return on the two value portfolios minus the average return on the two growth portfolios. ( | |
| RMW (Robust Minus Weak) is the average return on the two robust operating profitability portfolios minus the average return on the two weak operating profitability portfolios. ( | |
| CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive) is the average return on the two conservative investment portfolios minus the average return on the two aggressive investment portfolios. ( | |
| Following | |
| The S&P500 volatility index. | |
| It records how the U.S. Government's response to Covid has varied over all policy indicators in the “Covid Government Response Tracker” database by the University of Oxford. |
Descriptive statistics.
| Panel A: Eating & drinking firms | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | St Dev. | 25 | Median | 75 | |
| Excess Return | −0.378 | 4.064 | −2.018 | −0.492 | 1.130 |
| Traded Volume (in million) | 1.167 | 1.774 | 0.080 | 0.506 | 1.453 |
| Market Value (in $ billion) | 10.308 | 27.556 | 0.144 | 0.828 | 4.993 |
| Total Assets (in $ billion) | 3.825 | 6.758 | 0.112 | 0.801 | 2.953 |
| Excess Return | −0.430 | 3.831 | −2.054 | −0.584 | 0.994 |
| Traded Volume (in million) | 1.371 | 1.870 | 0.246 | 0.654 | 1.695 |
| Market Value (in $ billion) | 6.019 | 11.209 | 0.730 | 2.006 | 4.549 |
| Total Assets (in $ billion) | 6.088 | 6.709 | 1.359 | 3.976 | 8.417 |
This table reports descriptive statistics for the characteristics of Eating & Drinking firms (Panel A) and Lodging firms (Panel B), separately. Mean, standard deviation, and quartiles are reported. The overall sample is from July 2019 to October 2020.
CAR of eating & drinking and lodging firms during Covid-19.
| Long-term: | 4 Months | 8 Months | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event window | E & D firms | Lodging firms | E & D firms | Lodging firms | ||
| I | II | III | IV | V | VI | |
| 1 Month | −0.123*** | −0.004 | −0.123*** | −0.004 | ||
| (0.027) | (0.031) | (0.027) | (0.031) | |||
| Long-Term | 0.495*** | 0.426*** | 1.151*** | 0.969*** | ||
| (0.044) | (0.047) | (0.078) | (0.067) | |||
This table presents the cumulative abnormal excess returns (CAR) for Eating & Drinking (E & D) and Lodging firms during the Covid Pandemic. Daily abnormal excess returns represent the return realized by investors in excess of sources of systematic risks. The table reports the results using Fama-French 5-Factor for an 8-month estimation period prior three months before the first official Covid case. The results are given for short-term (one month) and long-term (four months and eight months) after the first official Covid case. The differences between CAR values regarding E & D vs Lodging firms, and short-term vs long-term are also reported along with the statistical significance. Robust standard errors are reported in parenthesis. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.
Excess return analyses for eating & drinking and lodging firms.
| Excess return | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eating & drinking firms | Lodging firms | |||||
| 1-month | 4-month | 8-month | 1-month | 4-month | 8-month | |
| I | II | III | IV | V | VI | |
| Post | −0.296** | 0.609*** | 0.654*** | 0.184 | 0.585*** | 0.605*** |
| (0.121) | (0.049) | (0.034) | (0.171) | (0.058) | (0.033) | |
| Mktrf | 0.787*** | 0.788*** | 0.804*** | 0.740*** | 0.747*** | 0.786*** |
| (0.020) | (0.034) | (0.031) | (0.032) | (0.029) | (0.027) | |
| SMB | 0.623*** | 0.669*** | 0.744*** | 0.550*** | 0.573*** | 0.755*** |
| (0.056) | (0.113) | (0.099) | (0.123) | (0.104) | (0.088) | |
| HML | 0.339*** | 0.530*** | 0.444*** | 0.753*** | 0.903*** | 0.783*** |
| (0.057) | (0.102) | (0.081) | (0.123) | (0.110) | (0.099) | |
| RMW | 0.550*** | 0.685*** | 0.738*** | 0.794*** | 1.128*** | 1.108*** |
| (0.111) | (0.173) | (0.166) | (0.131) | (0.109) | (0.095) | |
| CMA | −1.332*** | −1.456*** | −1.347*** | −1.808*** | −1.967*** | −1.605*** |
| (0.139) | (0.152) | (0.141) | (0.225) | (0.200) | (0.162) | |
| Constant | −0.729*** | −0.715*** | −0.714*** | −0.726*** | −0.718*** | −0.712*** |
| (0.038) | (0.020) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.020) | (0.018) | |
| FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Observation | 7507 | 9838 | 13,020 | 4308 | 5653 | 7468 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.298 | 0.339 | 0.308 | 0.431 | 0.501 | 0.465 |
This table presents estimates for Post along with Mktrf, SMB, HML, RMW, and CMA as control variables. The analyses are conducted for Eating & Drinking firms and Lodging firms separately. Excess Return is the dependent variable. Post is the daily dummy variable that is equal to one for the post-period; and zero between 01 July 2019 and 28 February 2020. Three different post-periods are defined starting from 02 March 2020 and ending at 31 March 2020, 30 June 2020, and 30 October 2020 for 1-month, 4-month, and 8-month periods, respectively. Excess Return is the daily stock return in excess of the risk-free rate that is proxied by the 1-month T-Bill rate. Variable definitions are given in Table A.1. Firm fixed effects are included. Standard errors are clustered by firms and given in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.
Traded and signed volume analyses for eating & drinking and lodging firms.
| Panel A: TraDED VOLUME ANAlyses | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eating & drinking firms | Lodging firms | |||||
| 1-month | 4-month | 8-month | 1-month | 4-month | 8-month | |
| Post | 1.224*** | 0.840*** | 0.503*** | 1.843*** | 1.322*** | 0.831*** |
| (0.218) | (0.153) | (0.0952) | (0.455) | (0.365) | (0.255) | |
| Mktrf | −0.016*** | −0.020*** | −0.014*** | −0.051*** | −0.048*** | −0.033*** |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.004) | (0.013) | (0.010) | (0.008) | |
| SMB | 0.032*** | 0.005 | 0.028*** | −0.034* | −0.035** | 0.011 |
| (0.011) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.019) | (0.013) | (0.008) | |
| HML | 0.033*** | 0.038*** | 0.003 | 0.079*** | 0.081*** | 0.014 |
| (0.010) | (0.013) | (0.008) | (0.024) | (0.022) | (0.010) | |
| RMW | −0.059* | −0.033 | −0.016 | −0.053 | −0.001 | 0.008 |
| (0.033) | (0.023) | (0.020) | (0.039) | (0.022) | (0.025) | |
| CMA | −0.197*** | −0.124*** | −0.047* | −0.275*** | −0.180*** | −0.031 |
| (0.049) | (0.036) | (0.024) | (0.069) | (0.055) | (0.019) | |
| FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Observation | 7507 | 9838 | 13,020 | 4308 | 5653 | 7468 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.153 | 0.142 | 0.061 | 0.231 | 0.201 | 0.105 |
| Eating & Drinking Firms | Lodging Firms | |||||
| 1-month | 4-month | 8-month | 1-month | 4-month | 8-month | |
| Post | 0.525 | 0.537*** | 0.364*** | 0.849 | 0.506** | 0.261** |
| (0.329) | (0.175) | (0.087) | (0.642) | (0.240) | (0.103) | |
| Mktrf | 1.375*** | 1.405*** | 1.414*** | 1.503*** | 1.498*** | 1.535*** |
| (0.219) | (0.044) | (0.230) | (0.239) | (0.060) | (0.246) | |
| SMB | 1.164*** | 1.159*** | 1.181*** | 0.943*** | 0.806*** | 1.167*** |
| (0.256) | (0.120) | (0.226) | (0.283) | (0.164) | (0.222) | |
| HML | 0.773*** | 0.931*** | 0.780*** | 1.828*** | 2.059*** | 1.760*** |
| (0.234) | (0.101) | (0.166) | (0.363) | (0.139) | (0.393) | |
| RMW | 0.155 | 0.802*** | 0.968*** | 1.077* | 2.071*** | 1.933*** |
| (0.427) | (0.199) | (0.338) | (0.527) | (0.273) | (0.575) | |
| CMA | −2.567*** | −2.626*** | −2.426*** | −4.457*** | −4.983*** | −3.949*** |
| (0.507) | (0.283) | (0.411) | (0.915) | (0.389) | (0.798) | |
| FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Observation | 7507 | 9838 | 13,020 | 4308 | 5653 | 7468 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.213 | 0.227 | 0.204 | 0.313 | 0.320 | 0.290 |
This table presents estimates for Post along with Mktrf, SMB, HML, RMW, and CMA as control variables. A constant is included in the regression, but is not reported in this table. The analyses are conducted for Eating & Drinking firms and Lodging firms separately. Traded Volume and Signed Volume are the dependent variables in Panels A and B, respectively. Post is the daily dummy variable that is equal to one for the post-period; and zero between 01 July 2019 and 28 February 2020. Three different post-periods are defined starting from 02 March 2020 and ending at 31 March 2020, 30 June 2020, and 30 October 2020 for 1-month, 4-month, and 8-month periods, respectively. Traded Volume is the amount of shares traded daily, in millions. Signed Volume is the amount of shares traded multiplied by the daily stock return, in ten thousands. Variable definitions are given in Table A.1. Firm fixed effects are included. Standard errors are clustered by firms and given in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.
Analyses with additional controls.
| Excess return | Traded volume | Signed volume | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eating & drinking firms lodging firms | Eating & drinking firms lodging firms | Eating & drinking firms lodging firms | ||||||||||
| Post Period: | 1-month | 8-month | 1-month | 8-month | 1-month | 8-month | 1-month | 8-month | 1-month | 8-month | 1-month | 8-month |
| Post | −0.032 | 0.573*** | 0.809 | 0.961*** | 0.157* | 0.462*** | 0.479*** | 0.215* | 1.068 | 1.002** | 2.196 | 1.992*** |
| (0.313) | (0.160) | (0.529) | (0.131) | (0.094) | (0.147) | (0.133) | (0.122) | (1.072) | (0.506) | (1.977) | (0.697) | |
| Covid Risk | 0.565 | 0.338*** | −0.205 | 0.641*** | 4.727*** | −0.007 | −0.877* | −0.277 | −1.373 | −0.651*** | −2.029 | −0.295 |
| (0.623) | (0.055) | (1.247) | (0.197) | (0.530) | (0.132) | (0.503) | (0.174) | (5.210) | (0.215) | (3.705) | (0.909) | |
| VIX | −1.106*** | −0.023*** | −1.220*** | −0.012** | 0.994*** | 1.185*** | 0.865*** | 1.328*** | −1.313* | 0.017 | −2.048*** | 0.020 |
| (0.208) | (0.004) | (0.232) | (0.004) | (0.075) | (0.224) | (0.093) | (0.060) | (0.683) | (0.010) | (0.681) | (0.018) | |
| Market Value | 0.023 | −0.004 | 0.050** | 0.028*** | −0.012*** | −0.098*** | −0.230*** | −0.181*** | 0.006*** | 0.109*** | 0.004*** | 0.100** |
| (0.018) | (0.006) | (0.022) | (0.007) | (0.003) | (0.016) | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.001) | (0.031) | (0.001) | (0.036) | |
| Gov Index | 0.034*** | 0.110** | 0.037*** | 0.010 | −0.004 | −0.001 | −0.007** | −0.013*** | 0.062*** | −0.207 | 0.089*** | −0.455** |
| (0.007) | (0.044) | (0.007) | (0.047) | (0.024) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.019) | (0.129) | (0.022) | (0.196) | |
| State & other Controls, FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Observation | 5527 | 9636 | 3676 | 6411 | 5527 | 9636 | 3676 | 6411 | 5527 | 9636 | 3676 | 6411 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.346 | 0.352 | 0.476 | 0.489 | 0.376 | 0.235 | 0.472 | 0.376 | 0.274 | 0.263 | 0.354 | 0.322 |
This table presents estimates for Post along with the regular controls and additional control variables, i.e. Covid Risk, VIX, Market Value, Gov Index, and State dummies. A constant is included in the regression, but is not reported in this table. Considering two different post-periods, the analyses are conducted for Eating & Drinking firms and Lodging firms separately. Excess Return, Traded Volume, and Signed Volume are the dependent variables. Covid Risk relies on word counts that condition on proximity to the use of synonyms for “risk” or “uncertainty”. This measure counts the frequency of mentions of synonyms for risk or uncertainty particularly related to Covid, divided by the length of the transcript. VIX is the S&P500 volatility index. Market Value is the daily closing price multiplied by common shares outstanding, in billions USD. Gov Index records how the U.S. Government's response to Covid has varied over all policy indicators in the “Covid Government Response Tracker” database by the University of Oxford. State dummies are equal to one if a firm is in that particular state; and zero otherwise. Variable definitions are given in Table A.1. Firm fixed effects and the regular controls are included. Standard errors are clustered by firms and given in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.