| Literature DB >> 35774099 |
Shuting Song1, Jian Zhang1, Yuwei Zhao1, Liying Dai1.
Abstract
Background: Patients with Bell's Stage II/III necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) may have more severe presentations, higher rates of death, and more long-term complications than those with Bell's Stage I NEC, so the purpose of this article was to construct a nomogram model to distinguish Bell's stage II/III NEC early from Bell's Stage I NEC, which is critical in the clinical management of NEC. Patients andEntities:
Keywords: necrotizing enterocolitis; neonate; nomogram; prediction model; risk factors
Year: 2022 PMID: 35774099 PMCID: PMC9237363 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2022.863719
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Pediatr ISSN: 2296-2360 Impact factor: 3.569
Figure 1Flowchart of patients included and excluded from the study.
Characteristics of the included patients.
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| |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender (%) | 0.940 | ||||
| Male | 187(62.13%) | 143(62.45%) | 71(56.80%) | 44(58.67%) | |
| Female | 114(37.87%) | 86(37.55%) | 54(43.20%) | 31(41.33%) | |
| BW (g) | <0.001 | ||||
| <1500 | 17(5.65%) | 91(39.74%) | 5(4.00%) | 32(42.67%) | |
| 1500–2500 | 64(21.26%) | 63(27.51%) | 24(19.20%) | 20(26.67%) | |
| >2500 | 220(73.09%) | 75(32.75%) | 96(76.80%) | 23(30.67%) | |
| GA (weeks) | <0.001 | ||||
| <32 | 25(8.31%) | 102(44.54%) | 75.60% | 27(36.00%) | |
| 32–37 | 68(21.26%) | 57(24.89%) | 29(23.20%) | 28(37.33%) | |
| >37 | 208(69.10%) | 70(30.57%) | 89(71.20%) | 20(26.67%) | |
| SGA(%) | 48(15.95%) | 40(17.47%) | 19(15.20%) | 18(24.00%) | 0.641 |
| Conception method (%) | 0.287 | ||||
| Natural conception | 293(97.37%) | 219(95.63%) | 121(96.80%) | 71(94.67%) | |
| | 8(2.66%) | 10(4.37%) | 4(3.20%) | 4(5.33%) | |
| Gravida (%) | 0.946 | ||||
| Single | 257(85.38%) | 196(85.59%) | 110(88.00%) | 60(80.00%) | |
| Twins | 44(14.62%) | 33(14.41%) | 15(12.00%) | 15(20.00%) | |
| Delivery method (%) | 0.753 | ||||
| Vaginal | 147(48.84%) | 115(50.22%) | 69(55.20%) | 35(46.67%) | |
| Cesarean section | 154(51.16%) | 114(49.78%) | 56(44.80%) | 40(53.33%) | |
| Anemia in pregnancy (%) | 14(4.65%) | 13(5.68%) | 11(8.80%) | 2(2.67%) | 0.595 |
| Hypertension in pregnancy (%) | 19(6.31%) | 28(12.23%) | 7(5.60%) | 11(14.67%) | 0.020 |
| Hypothyroidism in pregnancy (%) | 10(3.32%) | 7(3.06%) | 7(5.60%) | 0(0.00%) | 0.864 |
| GDM (%) | 17(5.65%) | 12(5.24%) | 10(8.00%) | 3(4.00%) | 0.838 |
| Erythrocyte infusion (%) | 37(12.29%) | 81(35.37%) | 14(11.20%) | 31(41.33%) | <0.001 |
| PROM (%) | 56(18.6%) | 57(24.89%) | 27(21.60%) | 13(17.33%) | 0.081 |
| Asphyxia (%) | 26(8.64%) | 41(17.90%) | 7(5.60%) | 9(12.00%) | 0.002 |
| Feeding method (%) | 0.661 | ||||
| formula feeding | 189(62.79%) | 159(69.43%) | 72(57.60%) | 53(70.67%) | |
| breastfeeding | 68(22.59%) | 28(12.23%) | 41(32.80%) | 8(10.67%) | |
| no feeding initiation | 44(14.62%) | 42(18.34%) | 12(9.60%) | 14(18.67%) | |
| Delayed fecal excretion (%) | 14(4.65%) | 19(8.30%) | 13(10.40%) | 4(5.33%) | 0.089 |
| Neonatal anemia (%) | 55(18.27%) | 97(42.36%) | 20(16.00%) | 29(38.67%) | <0.001 |
| Coagulation disorders (%) | 23(7.64%) | 36(15.72%) | 7(5.60%) | 10(13.33%) | 0.004 |
| Cerebral hemorrhage (%) | 57(18.94%) | 64(27.95%) | 18(14.40%) | 19(25.33%) | 0.015 |
| HIE (%) | 7(2.33%) | 4(1.75%) | 3(2.40%) | 1(1.33%) | 0.644 |
| Septicemia (%) | 30(9.97%) | 90(39.30%) | 12(9.60%) | 23(30.67%) | <0.001 |
| Hypoglycemia (%) | 28(9.30%) | 90(39.30%) | 8(6.40%) | 21(28.00%) | <0.001 |
| Hypoalbuminemia (%) | 10(3.32%) | 24(10.48%) | 1(0.80%) | 10(13.33%) | <0.001 |
| PDA (%) | 20(6.64%) | 65(28.38%) | 4(3.20%) | 26(34.67%) | 0.002 |
| PFO (%) | 34(11.30%) | 33(14.41%) | 17(13.60%) | 11(14.67%) | <0.001 |
| Neonatalscleroderma (%) | 4(1.33%) | 9(3.93%) | 0(0.00%) | 1(1.33%) | 0.286 |
| Hyperbilirubinemia (%) | 157(52.16%) | 83(36.24%) | 59(47.20%) | 36(48.00%) | 0.067 |
Values in parentheses are percentages; BW, birth weight; G, gestational age; SGA, small for gestational age; GDM, gestational diabetes mellitus; PDA, patent ductus arteriosus; PFO, patent foramen ovale; HI, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy; PROM, premature rupture of membrane.
Multivariate regression analysis of significant risk factors.
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| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA (weeks) | 6.159 | 0.046 | |||
| <32 | 1.254 | 0.512 | 5.929 | 3.457 (1.275–9.469) | 0.015 |
| 32–37 | 0.561 | 0.328 | 2.920 | 1.753 (0.921–3.336) | 0.087 |
| BW (g) | 6.793 | 0.033 | |||
| <1500 | 1.400 | 0.546 | 6.569 | 4.057 (1.390–11.837) | 0.010 |
| 1500–2500 | 0.357 | 0.339 | 1.111 | 1.429 (0.736–2.777) | 0.292 |
| Neonatal asphyxia (%) | 0.711 | 0.337 | 4.444 | 2.037(1.051–3.945) | 0.035 |
| Septicemia (%) | 1.716 | 0.283 | 36.734 | 5.563 (3.194–9.690) | <0.001 |
| Hypoglycemia (%) | 1.454 | 0.282 | 26.639 | 4.279 (2.464–7.431) | <0.001 |
| PDA (%) | 1.042 | 0.328 | 10.127 | 2.836 (1.492–5.388) | <0.001 |
BW, birth weight; GA, gestational age; PDA:, patent ductus arteriosus.
Figure 2Nomogram to predict the incidence of NEC. BW, birth weight; GA, gestational age; PDA, patent ductus arteriosus.
Figure 3ROC curves of the model in the training and validation group. (A) ROC of the model in the training group. (B) ROC of the model in the validation group.
Figure 4Calibration curves of the models in the training and validation groups. The closer the solid blue line is to the red dashed line with a slope of one, the better the model is calibrated. A level p > 0.05 in the two figures indicates no statistically significant difference between the predicted incidence curve and the actual incidence curve. (A) Calibration curves of the model in the training group. (B) Calibration curves of the model in the validation group.
Figure 5DCA curves of the model in the training and validation groups. The horizontal coordinate is the threshold probability. The vertical coordinate is the net benefit after subtracting the harm (misdiagnosis) from the benefit (the benefit is for the patient to be treated). The brown reference line indicates that all patients don't receive any intervention, and the net benefit is zero. The dark blue reference line indicates that all patients receive treatment, and the net benefit is represented by the backslash of the slope. The further the model curve is away from the two reference lines, the better the clinical utility of the nomogram. (A) DCA of the model in the training group (B) DCA of the model in the validation group.