BACKGROUND: This study provides updated estimates of the excess deaths in Italy with a focus on the working-age population. METHODS: Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted on 2011-2019 mortality data, and including terms for age, calendar year and a smooth function of the week of the year, were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and reported according to the pandemic periods defined by the predominant circulating variant of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Around 170,700 excess deaths at all ages were estimated between March 2020 and March 2022 in Italy with most of the excess occurring during the pre-Delta and Delta period, and 2930 excess deaths (+2.5%) during the Omicron wave. The excesses among the working age population were: 10,425 deaths (+11.8%) during the pre-Delta period, 2460 (+9.4%) during the Delta wave, 283 (+2.2%) during the transition period to Delta. Mortality was lower than expected during the Omicron wave (-6.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Over the periods preceding the Omicron wave, Covid-19 caused around 12,800 excess deaths among individuals of working age, accounting for over 10% excess death. This excess was no longer observed during the Omicron wave.
BACKGROUND: This study provides updated estimates of the excess deaths in Italy with a focus on the working-age population. METHODS: Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted on 2011-2019 mortality data, and including terms for age, calendar year and a smooth function of the week of the year, were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and reported according to the pandemic periods defined by the predominant circulating variant of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Around 170,700 excess deaths at all ages were estimated between March 2020 and March 2022 in Italy with most of the excess occurring during the pre-Delta and Delta period, and 2930 excess deaths (+2.5%) during the Omicron wave. The excesses among the working age population were: 10,425 deaths (+11.8%) during the pre-Delta period, 2460 (+9.4%) during the Delta wave, 283 (+2.2%) during the transition period to Delta. Mortality was lower than expected during the Omicron wave (-6.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Over the periods preceding the Omicron wave, Covid-19 caused around 12,800 excess deaths among individuals of working age, accounting for over 10% excess death. This excess was no longer observed during the Omicron wave.
Authors: Nazrul Islam; Vladimir M Shkolnikov; Rolando J Acosta; Ilya Klimkin; Ichiro Kawachi; Rafael A Irizarry; Gianfranco Alicandro; Kamlesh Khunti; Tom Yates; Dmitri A Jdanov; Martin White; Sarah Lewington; Ben Lacey Journal: BMJ Date: 2021-05-19
Authors: Matthew Whitaker; Joshua Elliott; Marc Chadeau-Hyam; Steven Riley; Ara Darzi; Graham Cooke; Helen Ward; Paul Elliott Journal: Nat Commun Date: 2022-04-12 Impact factor: 14.919
Authors: Gianfranco Alicandro; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Stefano Centanni; Alberto Gerli; Carlo La Vecchia Journal: Med Lav Date: 2022-04-26 Impact factor: 2.244
Authors: Amrita Rao; Huiting Ma; Gary Moloney; Jeffrey C Kwong; Peter Jüni; Beate Sander; Rafal Kustra; Stefan D Baral; Sharmistha Mishra Journal: Ann Epidemiol Date: 2021-07-24 Impact factor: 6.996