The efficacy of transarterial chemoembolization in downstaging unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma to curative therapy: a predicted regression model.

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) outside Milan criteria (MC) may be candidates for curative therapy after successful downstaging. We aimed to identify the predictors of successful downstaging of unresectable HCC in patient by transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside MC. We performed a retrospective study on patients with unresectable HCC outside MC who received downstaging with TACE. Clinical and laboratory variables were recorded. We identified 101 patients with unresectable HCC who underwent initial TACE, who formed the derivation set of this study. Thirty patients who treated by TACE with the same selection criteria served as an external validation set. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify variables associated with successful downstaging. Then we did the predictive model to predict the efficiency of TACE. Of the 101 patients in the study, 26 patients (25.7%) were successfully downstaging and 75 patients (74.3%) failed downstaging. Multivariate analysis of factors to predict successful downstaging of HCC outside MC the number of tumor (P = 0.01), portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT)(p < 0.01), the size of tumor (P = 0.02), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (P = 0.01), α-fetoprotein (AFP) (P = 0.02) as significant predictors of successful downstaging. Then we constructed the predictive model. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the predictive equation was 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.95). We found in our study that the number and size of tumors, PVTT, HBsAg, and AFP are good predictors of successful downstaging of unresectable HCC in patients by TACE outside the MC.