Stretching resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa: Imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps.

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a new wave of health, infrastructure and built environment challenges and opportunities. The COVID-19 pandemic induced environment presents a divide between the "new and old normal" with policy and planning implications for health, transport and general socio-economic growth and development. Multiple and complex nuanced transport matters cascade all geographic scales and pervade all sectors of the economy. The extent to which existing transport systems capacities are resilient, adaptive, and optimized for complete disaster planning, management and sustainability is questioned. This paper critically reviews how the COVID-19 pandemic has stretched the resilience and adaptive transport systems capacities in South Africa. A critical question interrogated is whether on-going policy and planning interventions constitute imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps. The paper makes use of South Africa as a case study, referencing the Disaster Management Act (No. 57 of 2002) and logical Disaster Management Act: Regulations relating to COVID-19 (Government Notice 318 of 2020), with specific reference to the transport sector lockdown regulations in unravelling policy and planning implications. Drawing from the complex systems adaptive theory (CSAT), sustainability theory (ST), innovation theory (IT), transitions theory (TT), thematic COVID -19 transport planning and policy adaptation, mitigation measures in the South African transportation sector are discussed. Emergent lessons with respect to developing and advancing a new generation of resilient, adaptive, and optimized transport proof infrastructure and services including revising transport and related policies that navigates through various waves and cycles of induced pandemic and shocks is suggested.

Introduction

Transport systems constitute the life-blood and backbone of local, national and the global economy (Aloi et al., 2020; Beck and Hensher, 2020; Rodrigue, 2016; Rodrigue and Notteboom, 2013; Vojtek et al., 2019). The flows of goods, commodities and people across all geographic scales and covering of all spheres of influence reinforce the interdependence, complexity and supplementary nature of the various transport sectors in promoting growth and development. Maintaining supply lines, flows of goods and linkages of communication between and across places and spaces is critical for the sustenance of human livelihoods and activities (Anand, 2020; Askitas et al., 2020; Ataguba, 2020). Unravelling the socio-economic impacts and transport policy dimensions is an important research area to inform policy and improved decision-making related to COVID-19 transport interventions. On the other hand, disrupting the transport logistics value chain will lead in to inefficient and compromised transport systems and outcomes. Inefficient and incomplete transport logistics network and value chains will have impacts on access to food, food prices, poverty, and hunger, which are big challenges in Africa and by extension South Africa (Ataguba, 2020; Elavarasan and Pugazhendhi, 2020; Wells et al., 2020). Studies that focus on seeking to expand the policy options and actions available in mitigating transport policy inefficiencies or bolstering existing logistics efficiency are an important fighting mechanism in disaster and pandemic planning, management and sustainability.

Indeed, COVID-19 crisis represents an unprecedented challenges, emergent threats and unmatched opportunities since the Spanish Flu of -1918 and the Great Depression (1929–1939) for the World (Wang and Wang, 2020). This is in terms of balancing the need to save lives, protecting livelihoods, and stimulating and advancing the economy (Elgin et al., 2020; Faisal and Nirmala, 2020; Fontanarosa and Bauchner, 2020; Galanakis, 2020; Gershon et al., 2020; Gössling et al., 2020; Gray, 2020). The South African government is presented with a challenge in which transport policies among a host of other policies are expected to contribute towards the reduction of the COVID-19 induced socio-economic negative impact. In this context, investigating the extent to which South African transport policies can be tinkered with to incorporate COVID-19 realities in implementing agreed sustainable long term transport innovations and solutions is important. Answering questions on the amenability of existing transport infrastructure to satisfy the new COVID-19 transport regulations requirements and with what policy implications constitutes exciting public transport dialogue policy inflexion points. Historical records in South Africa indicate that approximately 6% of South Africa's population in 1918 succumbed to the virus National Treasury (2020c). The South African government is fighting the COVID-19 pandemic in a context in which resilience challenges already exists. These resilience challenges and constraints are linked to unemployment (30.16% in 2020), extreme poverty (28%, 2020) and inequality (0.65 in 2015) (Statistics South Africa, 2018a, b). In this context, reviewing the capacity of transport systems in terms of resilience and adaptive capacity becomes instructive in seeking to starve off the COVID-19 pandemic negative outcomes. In South Africa, grey and scant literature exists that links COVID-19 and transport policy discourses. The existent literature in the main explore epidemiological and health dimensions of COVID-19 and fail to explicitly place transport and transport policy making at the center of the studies. The studies either focus on the preparedness and vulnerability of importation chains for COVID-19 medicines and personal protective equipment (PPEs) (Dzingirai et al., 2020; Gilbert et al., 2020; Haque et al., 2020), or explore the gendered handwriting and impacts of COVID-19 outbreak (Joska et al., 2020; Peckham et al., 2020; Wenham et al., 2020) or presents COVID-19 health prediction, prevention and control models (Badu et al., 2020; Mehtar et al., 2020; Velavan and Meyer, 2020). This study therefore seeks to critically review the transport policy and related sectors COVID-19 pandemic implications with a view to making policy suggestions for improvement.

Conceptual framework

This manuscript draws from multiple inter-connected, dependent and complementary theoretical frameworks to unpack and simplify the reduction to practice for COVID-19 and transport linked and related policy articulation. It is fundamental that multiple concepts be used to anchor the discussion given the diversity, complexity and uniqueness of COVID-19 transport and related policy discourses. The main theories are discussed, thereafter the emerging framing frameworks are introduced. Viewed together, these theories and emergent framework constitute a theoretical grid in which the conversation with respect to COVID-19 transport and related policy platforms are critiqued and alternatives for moving transport during and post-COVID-19 are presented.

Complex systems adaptive theory: the transport COVID-19 dimensions

The theory of complex adaptive systems (CAS) is linked to concepts and methods integration thereby providing a platform that connects disciplines and processes across time and geographic scales (Wiesner et al., 2018). The theory's golden thread hinges on the premise that “the whole is greater than the sum of the parts” and is an extension of the complex adaptive system of systems (CASoS) (Batty, 2009; Holden, 2012; Komljenovic et al., 2019). Within the transport COVID-19 transport policy and related sectors discussion, transport policy is viewed and conceived from a multi-level, multi-scalar and multi-discipline perspective. Such a wide conception, provides innumerable opportunities for assessing and evaluating the role and scope and limitations of transport policy efficiency and inefficiencies in a COVID-19 induced and adapting world. It is consequently argued that transport COVID-19 and beyond policy making should be based on a full analysis of all transport and non-transport dimensions given that transport does not operate in a vacuum but a system of systems that are dynamic and constantly shifting and changing in response to various waves of crisis and events.

The sustainability theory (ST): the transport COVID-19 policy sustainability dialogue paradox

According to the Brundtland Commission Report, “Our Common Future”, “sustainable development” is defined as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (Basiago, 1998; Gudmundsson et al., 2016; Rohács and Rohács, 2020; Zhao et al., 2020). The sustainability concepts and sustainability circles method are fundamental ways of unpacking transport COVID -19 policy dimensions from social, economic and environmental lenses. The ST is critical in enabling a policy sense making interpretation in respect of transport COVID-19 policy implications considering the United Nations (UN), sustainable development goals (SDGs) as well as mainstream policy instruments such as the national development plan (NDP), 2030 in South Africa.

A distinguishing feature of CAS is the ability to self-regulate but within limits. This has led to the substitution of the concept of “sustainability” with the concept of “‘resilience” at a systemic level. Resilience has been defined to imply “the capacity of a system to absorb shocks while maintaining function” (Folke et al., 2002; Folke et al., 2010; Whiteman et al., 2013). Transport systems resilience could be viewed as the capacity of individuals/communities/institutions/businesses, and systems within an area, region or city to adapt, survive and thrive above the impact of chronic stresses and acute shocks experienced. In this study, transport resilience and sustainability is therefore conceived as the ability of the transport systems during and post COVID-19 to adapt to shocks and stress by being able to rebound for relevance and productivity. This raises difficult questions in respect of the transport COVID-19 policy sustainability dialogues and paradoxes. The need to find innovative ways to overcome such loop thinking policy dead ends become very important.

The innovation theory (IT): the transport COVID-19 transport transitions policy and technology conundrum

Literature is replete with studies that highlight that innovation must be differentiated from invention (Grant, 2016; Greenacre et al., 2012; Hagedoorn, 1996). Invention was defined by Schumpeter as the first discovery of new products or processes. Innovation sometimes refers to a new product or changes applied to a stage in a product's lifecycle, or to an iterative process of invention and application that links technical, societal and political change. Invariably, innovation can be categorised as “incremental, radical, or disruptive” (Greenacre et al., 2012). This is usually dependent on two main factors: one, whether the innovation is driven from within or outside the patenting organisation, or two: whether the innovation renders obsolete and redundant an incumbent technology and or process/protocol. IT theory is pivotal to an understanding of how existing, emergent and new transport technologies covering the full gamut of all transport modes, operations and activities are resilient or not in the face of COVID-19 transport policy induced challenges and opportunities. The review then seeks to illustrate whether existing transport solutions are innovative enough to adapt to the expectations of a post-COVID 19 transport policy and related sectors requirements. Overall, innovation takes many dimensions such as open innovation, disruptive innovation as well as social innovation. The efficiency and inefficiency of the various innovation deployment mechanism will be critiqued and areas for technology and policy improvement suggested.

The transitions theory (TT): Oiling the COVID-19 transport policy Wheels and Machine

Innovation theory implementation has been credited with the birth of transitions theory (Greenacre et al., 2012). This is because when one seeks to implement an innovation or even an invention, one needs to engage in market and risk management intelligence that requires transdisciplinary knowledge and competence beyond the field of economics through incorporating cognate disciplines such as sociology, politics, history and engineering to name a few (Gross, 2008).

Considering the idea of the evolution and development of innovation hierarchies, Geels (2002) advanced a multi-level perspective on transitions requiring policy support in the form of transition planning, management, and sustainability (Geels, 2002; Raimbault, 2018; Rode, 2019). This multi-level perspective to COVID-19 transport policy implementation and advancement is fundamental in seeking to express how transport innovations and inventions can be bridges in addressing logistics constraints and bottlenecks for all transportation stakeholders involved in the value chain (Andersen et al., 2020; Geels, 2002; Kotilainen et al., 2019).

Transitions involve changes that transcend changes in the technology itself, but also incorporate shifts and changes in user practices, regulation, industrial logistics networks, infrastructure, culture and is applicable at different geographic scales (i.e. micro, meso and macro) (Andersen et al., 2020; Geels, 2002; Moradi and Vagnoni, 2018). The notion and concept of transitions is important in this study as it facilitates the exploration of the ad-hoc and incremental transport policy COVID-19 policy tactics and strategies with a view to assessing the efficiency of such policy options and capacity for being adopted as long term policy solutions. Indeed, making use of the combined conceptual framework model discussed in the preceding sections, thematic COVID -19 transport planning and policy matters covering the adaptation, mitigation measures and impacts in the South African transportation sector are discussed.

Aim and objectives

This paper aims at exploring the following open research questions, namely:

Describing the emergent COVID-19 implications on the transport and related sectors in South Africa.

Critically reviewing how the COVID-19 pandemic has stretched the resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa.

Evaluating whether on-going policy and planning interventions constitute imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps.

Through answering the above-mentioned questions, the paper further seeks to establish whether on-going policy and planning interventions constitute imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps in South Africa. The overall aim and intent of the paper is to advance suggestions and alternative ways through which transport policy and planning can be expanded and improved in response to COVID-19 induced challenges. In any case, developing transport systems that are adaptive across various disasters and pandemics that may confront the World from time to time is an essential plank of the discussion.

Material and methods

This section provides an overview of the material and research methods used in this paper. The section is divided into study design, data collection and data analysis. Overall, this work hinges on multiple theoretical lenses that draws from the following connected and multiple theories: the complex systems adaptive theory (CAST), sustainability theory (ST), innovation theory (IT) and transitions theory (TT). These theories guide the interrogation of thematic COVID -19 transport planning and policy matters covering the adaptation, mitigation measures and impacts in the South African transportation sector.

Research methods and design

The research methods and design employed in this manuscript were informed by the nature and context of COVID-19 pandemic and its ramifications in South Africa.

Study design

The philosophical design perspective of the study is mounted on ontological and axiological dimensions (Herbert and Sohrabi, 2020; Maykut and Morehouse, 1994). This is in terms of describing the COVID-19 transport reality (ontology) in the context of emergent transport values, principles and standards (axiology). The study is an evidenced based case study that draws data and information from national and provincial datasets with respect to COVID-19 status, implications and directions in South Africa. The case study of the Western Cape province in general and City of Cape Town are used in exploring the resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa. A case study approach has the advantage of allowing a researcher to focus on a research problem and unpack the theoretical application of the COVID-19 transport and related phenomenon in South Africa (Creswell and Creswell, 2017; Creswell and Poth, 2016). This was vital given the observation that COVID-19 is a phenomenon for which little is known. Indeed, a case study research approach has the advantage of being able to provide answers in respect to the ‘how’ and ‘why’ dimensions of a research problem statements (Myers, 2009). This method has therefore been endorsed as appropriate for descriptive and exploratory studies (Mouton, 2001).

Setting

Given the uncertainty, complexity and ‘novelty’ of the COVID-19 pandemic and linkages to the transport sector, the study also incorporated an exploratory design approach. This was motivated by considering that the research problem has few previous studies and emergent literature is grey and scarce. Exploratory research was deemed appropriate in exploring local development practice as evidenced through the experiences and actions of local citizens, community-based groups and local government (Cuthill, 2002). Adopting this exploratory approach enabled the researcher to be able to gain deeper insights with implications for emerging future policy directions and research agenda post COVID-19 pandemic. Exploratory research was an appropriate first step because the approach is flexible with respect to methods used to gain insight and develop research questions, arguments and or hypotheses (Churchill 1999).

Study population and sampling strategy

The geographic unit of analysis is South Africa, with case studies drawn from the Western Cape (WC) Province. The WC province is the fourth largest of the nine provinces in South Africa. It covers an area of 129,449 square kilometres (49,981 sq mi) in total. It is the third most populous province in South Africa, with an estimated 7 million inhabitants in 2020. Approximately two-thirds of the WC province population lives in the metropolitan area of Cape Town (i.e. the provincial capital). The City of Cape Town's (CCT) population is expected to expand rapidly across the next 5 years, growing from 4 055 580 people in 2018 to 4 232 276 in 2023 (Statistics South Africa, 2018a). With respect to poverty and inequality, CCT's Gini coefficient is currently 0.61 (2016). At 21.0 per cent, the unemployment rate in the metropolitan area is only surpassed by that of the Central Karoo at 23.2 per cent (City of Cape Town, 2017; Statistics South Africa, 2018b.). At 31.8 per cent, the Khayelitsha/Mitchells Plain Planning District recorded the highest unemployment rate in the Cape Metro area over the last few years. In the Western Cape, George city as a region has been singled out as requiring efficient transport systems, water and sanitation, telecommunications and power supplies. Fig. 1 presents a map of study areas in the Western Cape (WC) (i.e. Cape Town, George, Stellenbosch and Kayelitsha).

Fig. 1

Map of study areas in the Western Cape (WC) – Cape Town, George, Stellenbosch and Kayelitsha.

The City of Cape Town (CCT) places importance in promoting sustainable development (SD) and resilience2 through incorporating the principles, notion and concepts as steering mechanism in key documents such as the Integrated Development Plan (IDP) 2017–2022 (City of Cape Town, 2017). Additionally, CCT is a member of the 100 Resilient Cities (RC) network. Although CCT is yet to develop an approved Resilience Strategy (RS) for Cape Town, efforts and initiatives in that direction are underway. Overall, the city consciously attempts to provide competitive, effective and efficient basic services (including maintaining, rehabilitation and expanding) as illustrated by the fact that approximately above 90 per cent of the city residents had access to all basic services between 2012 and 2016 (City of Cape Town, 2017). In 2016, the City of Cape Town had a total number of 132 primary healthcare facilities – 81 fixed public health care (PHC clinics), 42 community day centres as well as 9 community health centres. In addition, there are 85 antiretroviral treatment (ART) and 128 Tuberculosis (TB) treatment sites as well as 2 regional hospitals within the City's boundaries (City of Cape Town, 2018). The number of ambulances per 10 000 people in the Cape Metropolitan area was 0.25 in 2016, down from 0.28 in 2014 and 0.25 in 2015. Just like any major urban node in South Africa, informality is both a challenge and opportunity for finding and creating new ways in engaging in the socio-economic (re)production of space. Generally, informal dwellings have increased slightly between 2011 and 2016 (City of Cape Town, 2017). Housing spatial fragmentation manifests in terms of economic opportunities located away from the low-income areas of residence. This remains a challenge despite the implementation of integrated spatial development and management approaches aimed at advancing spatial integration and consolidation. Invariably in Cape Town, densities in the poorer metropolitan south-east areas are the highest. The recently approved spatial development framework (SDF), 2018 consequently focuses on transforming spatial places, spaces and cultures through changing urban form in terms of implementing higher densities, mixed land-uses, green infrastructure planning, open space branding and transit-oriented development (TOD) (City of Cape Town, 2018). The Transport Development Authority (TDA) in Cape Town vision and mission is geared towards the promotion of an efficient and integrated land use and transport system. Despite these progressive intents, the city being predominantly an automobile dependent city is still confronted by the scourge of high motorisation (i.e. private vehicles) and the concomitant issues of traffic congestion, fatalities and emissions. High rates of motorisation is reflected in terms of commuters travelling for longer periods to work (i.e. spending an average of between 61 and 90 min or more travelling to work between 2009 and 2016) (City of Cape Town, 2018). Cape Town's integrated transport infrastructure network (ITIN) includes 1014 km of rail network, 32 km of dedicated red road for the City-owned Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) - MyCiTi, 440 km of cycling lanes and 109 foot bridges for pedestrians. In Cape Town, the increased incidence of people working from home is linked to advancements in technology and increased internet connectivity and accessibility.

Cape Town, Stellenbosch, George cities and Khayelitsha township are therefore used as classical examples in illustrating the COVID-19 transport issues and policy nexus. The Western Cape province is one of the four major hotspots in terms of total COVID-19 cases in South Africa. The Western Cape was purposefully chosen as it has strong database systems that are accessible via digital platforms. In addition, the region is representative of the spatial geography of fragmented spatial development, inefficient settlement patterns, unemployment, poverty and inequality in South Africa. These are the classical examples under which the South African government COVID-19 strategy and response plans are being implemented. These case study conditions therefore present a perfect setting in which to critically review the efficiency and inefficiency of COVID-19 transport and related sectors policy strengths and constraints. Consequent to such a review, it is then possible to assess the emergent transport policy gaps, opportunities and resilience thereof for further development.

Data collection

Data presented in this manuscript on the COVID-19 implications and ramifications within the transport and related sectors was drawn mainly from South African National Health, Infrastructure and Transport Datasets and centres. These included the following: South African government COVID-19 Resources Hub3 ; National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS)4 ; National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)5 ; Western Cape Department of Transport and Public Works (WCDTPW) databases and interim reports on COVID-196 ; The Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) transport monitoring and reporting system from the Western Cape province7 ; South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS)8 ; Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning (WCDEA&DP)9 ; Statistics South Africa – The Quarterly labour Force Survey (Q1 2020) database10 ; South African Department of Treasury databases, records and reports11 and Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (DCGTA) compendium of COVID -19 Statutes and regulations.12 Table 1, presents the research method matrix used in matching study research objectives, methods, analysis and intended outcomes.

Table 1

Research method matrix matching study research objectives, methods, analysis and outcomes.

Research Question (RQ)	Research Method	Data and Information Sources	Research Theory	Research Analysis	Research Outcome
Research Question 1 (RQ1)Describing the emergent COVID-19 implications on the transport and related sectors in South Africa.	Primary Databank, Datasets and RecordsSecondary government documents	COVID-19 Compendium of Statutes and RegulationsTreasury 2020 Budget and Division of Revenue datasets/recordsQuarterly labour Force Survey (Q1 2020) databaseSouth African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS)National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS)	Transitions theory (TT)	Trend analysisHistorical/document analysisPolicy analysis	Portrait of COVID-19 transport and related sectors in South Africa
Research Question 2 (RQ2)Reviewing how the COVID-19 pandemic has stretched the resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa.	Primary Databank, Datasets and RecordsValue Chain methodThematic classification and categorization	South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS)The USSD transport monitoring and reporting system from the Western Cape provinceWestern Cape Department of Transport and Public Works (WCDTPW) databases and interim reports on COVID-19	Complex systems adaptive theory (CAST)	Critical analysisThematic analysisSystems analysisValue chain analysisDocument analysisLock-down levels pollution scenarios and emission levels Status Quo Reports for Stellenbosch, Cape Town, George and Khayelitsha	Resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa
Research Question 3 (RQ3)Evaluating whether on-going policy and planning interventions constitute imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps.	Secondary government documentsDeductive method	South African government COVID-19 Resources HubWestern Cape Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning (WCDEA&DP):	Sustainability theory (ST)Innovation theory (IT)	Gap analysisDiscourse analysisDeductive analysisDocument analysis	COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps

Data analysis

The analysis that is modelled along a similar analysis conducted by Askitas et al. (2020) combines information from multiple data sources on (i) the non-pharmaceutical interventions13 implemented by governments, (ii) the daily number of infections, (iii) the evolution of population's mobility patterns, and (iv) various case study in country characteristics from the Western Cape Province of South Africa (Askitas et al., 2020). Overall, data and information was analysed making use of a thematic approach. At the same time, descriptive statistics and trend analysis in the form of tables, graphs and maps are used to argument research findings and support the main argument of the paper. Through deductive analysis, critical perspectives are advanced.

Theoretical framework and imperatives

This section presents a concise review of the theoretical framework and imperatives that shaped and influenced the main line of argument in this paper. These central theories are reviewed in the context of the risk management operational model adopted by the South African government. An understanding of these foundational theories in critical in placing the discussion and critique on transport policy efficiency and inefficiencies in context.

Theoretical perspectives

Seeking to unpack and unravel the transport policy and COVID-19 pandemic implications in South Africa requires a broad but critical review of seminal approaches and emergent theories with respect to the phenomenon. In this study Table 2 , presents a synthesis and summary of the approaches and emergent models applied for the study. Suffice to point out that these do not represent completely “new” models but improvements to “old” models with subtle application to transport policy contextual requirements.

Table 2

A synthesis and summary of transport policy and COVID-19 approaches and emergent models.

Abbreviated Model Acronym	Characteristics	Description
CoSSI or CoSST	Containment	Obligatory quarantine for persons arriving from affected countries and regions in a country
	Social distancing	Remote working
		Closure of large scale events
		Closure of parks and plazas
		Self-isolation for older people, symptomatic persons and persons who have been in contact with a COVID-19 patient
	Shutdown	Closure of Schools, Colleges, Universities over contagion concerns
		Closure of non-essential business
	(Initial) Lockdown	Restrictions on mobility
		Obligatory confinement of non-essential workers
		Innovation and implementation of a raft of economic containment measures
		Enlarging of health system response capacity
TISM Approach	Total	Identification of factors
		Establish interconnectedness between factors
	Interpretive	Interpretation of relationship between factors
		Developing the final reachability matrix (FRM) after checking for transitivity
	Structural	Partition of the factors from FRM into levels
		Designing the interaction matrix
	Modelling	Creating the diagraph and TISM model
ASI Model	Avoid	Avoiding disruption to transportation services and measures
	Shift	Policy maker's governance framework and systems in respect of existing infrastructure and services
	Improve	Optimising transport infrastructure and services to meet commuting requirements
PARAa Model	Plan	Strategic and advance system systemic planning to overcome threats, disasters and pandemics prior to occurrence
	Absorb	System resilience performance after the threat, disaster and pandemic has arrived/occurred
	Recover	System's ability to regain system function and stability considering agility, robustness, speed or turn-around time, cost and efficiency
	Adapt	The capacity of system to self-regulate, adapt, change and mitigate disruptive transitions of future threats, disasters and pandemics similar in nature

Referred to as a systematic resilience approach to dealing with COVID-19 and future shocks.

A transport risk-adjusted approach to managing COVID-19 in South Africa

In South Africa, a risk-adjusted approach was developed through collaboration between the economic cluster departments and the Department of Health as a COVID-19 coping and adaptation mechanism. Predicated on a differentiated levels alert 5 system lockdown alert system, the adopted approach was grounded on the declaration of specific alert levels for provinces and districts based on epidemiological trends and the risk of infection. The logic of this approach was that this would allow economic activity to resume more quickly in districts where the risk of infection is low. Levels of alert for each province and district will be determined by the National Command Council at each meeting, upon a recommendation from the Minister of Health, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition and the Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs. Table 3 , presents a generic summary of sectors permitted under different lockdown levels in South Africa applied from a transport perspective.

Table 3

Generic summary of sectors permitted under different lockdown levels in South Africa.

Level	Sectors permitted	Transport restrictions	Movement restrictions	Transport policy implications and discourses
Level 5:High virus spread, and/or low health system readiness	Only essential services as per Regulations at April 20, 2020	Bus services, taxi services, e-hailing and private motor vehicles - operate at restricted times, with limitations on vehicle capacity and stringent hygiene requirements	No inter-provincial movement of people, except for transportation of goods and exceptional circumstances (e.g. funerals)	Financial viability of bus and minibus taxi industrySubsidy funding model implications and economic relief measures for Public Transport OperatorsMobility as a Service (MaaS) policy shifts and changesTransport policy interim and temporary regulations on passenger carrying capacity, integrated and seamless ticketing systems and seating arrangement signage for space allocation and passenger crowd managementDe-linking transport policy models and containment implications
Level 4:Moderate to high virus spread, with moderate readiness	All essential services, plus a limited number of sectors with a low rate of transmission and high economic or social value	Bus services, taxi services, e-hailing and private motor vehicles - operate at all times of the day, with limitations on vehicle capacity and stringent hygiene requirements	No inter-provincial movement of people, except for transportation of goods and exceptional circumstances (e.g. funerals)	Long distance logistics distribution and management value chain transport policy analysis, modelling, scenarios and challengesRevisiting and reconceptualisation short distance procurement, supply and logistics transport policy analysis, modelling, scenarios and opportunitiesLocal and international transport tourism and related activities constraints and demand and supply contraction
Level 3:Moderate virus spread, with moderate readiness	All sectors permitted at Level 4, plus a wider range of sectors with a low to moderate risk of transmission that can be effectively mitigated	Bus services, taxi services, e-hailing and private motor vehicles - operate at all times of the day, with limitations on vehicle capacity and stringent hygiene requirementsLimited passenger rail restored, with stringent hygiene conditions in placeLimited domestic air travel, with a restriction on the number of flights per day and authorisation based on the reason for travel	No inter- provincial movement of people, except for transportation of goods and exceptional circumstances (e.g. funerals)	Minibus Taxis and Buses passenger carrying capacity regulations policy amendment negotiated to 70% instead of 50%Lack of compliance to loading passenger's capacities in view of lack of agreement on a R3000-R5000 minibus relief subsidy given that the monthly loan repayment amount is between R15 000 – R20000 monthlyLack or inadequate transport surveillance, monitoring and enforcement system save in areas with transport apps developed although policy teething implementation challenges exist
Adjusted Level 3	Business premises, employers including, but not limited to, a supermarket, shop, grocery store, retail store, wholesale produce market or pharmacy shall have adhere to all health protocols and social distancing measuresNight vigils and after-funeral gatherings, including “after-tears” gatherings, are not allowed.	No person can use, operate, perform any service on any form of public transport without wearing a face mask.Public places and transport operators and systems to be serviced with hand sanitizers.All land ports of entry of the Republic are closed, until February 15, 2021, including the ports of entry which were opened under Alert level 1, except for ports of entry designated and permitted for cross-border and international travel and trade as gazetted by Minister and in compliance with categories of goods, services and passengers allowed to transit	Curfew from 21h00–06h00 daily unless exempted through a travel permit up until February 1, 2021Curfew from 23h00 until 04h00 daily unless exempted through a travel permit from February 2, 2021	Transport operators to comply with health protocols and social distancing measuresRail, ocean. air and road transport is permitted for the movement of cargo to and from other countries and within the Republic, subject to national legislation and any directions issued for the transportation of goods for export and for import.International air travel is restricted to the following airports - OR Tambo International Airport; King Shaka International Airport: and Cape Town International Airport.
Level 2:Moderate virus spread, with high readiness	Most productive sectors, with limitations remaining where the risk of transmission is high	Domestic air travel restoredCar rental services restored	Movement between provinces at Level 1 and 2 restrictions	Product and service import substitutionGrowth in telecommutingStaggered working hoursFlexi working hoursWork rotation shiftsOptimising local, domestic and national supply and demand logistics and linkages
Level 1:Low virus spread, high health system readiness	All sectors	All modes of transport, with stringent hygiene conditions in place	Interprovincial movement allowed, with restrictions on international travel	Transport policy shift and transition towards resilient and adaptive transport systems and infrastructure instead of fixed sturdy fit for purpose infrastructure and servicesResearch and innovation for new transport forms and systems for the futureEducation ecosystem digital development and (r)evolution on transport; network connectivity; speed and efficiency; access and cost; growth and development of transport and communication alternatives for physical trips, shrinkage in origin-destination trips through being replaced by Virtual meetings and contact e.g. Zoom, Google Meets, Microsoft Teams, Webex, Skype et cetera.

Understanding transport policy COVID-19 crisis -response measures: Collective transport policy sense-making

While epidemics have always occurred during previous civilisations generations, however adaptation measures have tended to be reactionary and not strategic enough in terms of building pandemic proof societies. The same applies to the lack of building timeless infrastructure disaster and pandemic resilient solutions. Table 4 , presents an adopted crisis-response policy frame.

Table 4

Understanding COVID -19 crisis -response measures: Collective transport policy sense-making processes and frame.

STARTED	COVID-19 TRANSPORT POLICY AND PLANNING MUDDLING THROUGH AND ENDING• Knee jerkk reactions • Ad-hoc solutions and measures • Fragmented and incomplete interventions • Interim and temporary regulations • Crisis management and firefighting measures • Responses aimed at solving immediate demands and specific to the crisis	COVID-19 TRANSPORT POLICY AND PLANNING AMPLIFICATION• Innovation with promise for a better world • Integrated solutions • Full cycle and value chain analysis interventions • Transport governance systems upgrading and uprating • Technology scaling up and prototype further refinement • Drone technology and telemedicine and freight contactless delivery systems • New ideas, policies and technologies tried with signs of promise for improved transport policy efficiencies in the future	New Transport Policy and Practice (Innovation)
STOPPED	PRE & COVID-19 TRANSPORT POLICY AND PLANNING CRISIS CULTURE (LEARNING TO LET GO)• Obsolete transport policy culture and systems • Repurposing and redesign of streets and public spaces • Traditional home work (office) model revisit and change • Old civilisation and transport policy systems and models that were rendered dysfunctional and inefficient • Amplification of old transport and travel now unfit for purpose cultures and practices	POST COVID-19 TRANSPORT POLICY AND PLANNING RESTARTING• Autonomous vehicles and traffic systems and network development • Automated logistics and procurement management information systems • Accelerated development, dissemination and uptake of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 3-D Imaging and design, Big data and analytics in transportation planning, policy and planning • Future Internet of Things (IoTs) and Smart Cities/Regions/Rural Areas/Villages development and revolution • Old practices stopped to make way crisis management but initiatives need to be picked up in some form	Old Transport Policy and Practice (Continuity and Conservation)
	STOPPED	STARTED

Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has provided the transport industry with an opportunity for introspection. This wave of the pandemic and moment in human civilization raises fundamental questions in terms of the relevance, adequacy and transport policy and development value system that our World, societies and communities are based on.

Results

This section presents the results and findings of this research work. The results and findings are categorised into three broad main categories linked to the main research questions. These areas are: emergent COVID-19 implications on the transport and related sectors in South Africa; COVID-19 pandemic resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa; and Emergent perfect and imperfect transport policy and planning interventions to close COVID -19 pandemic gaps.

Emergent COVID-19 implications on the transport and related sectors in South Africa

This section analyses and reviews the emergent COVID-19 implications on the transport and related sectors in South Africa. The themes covered include: COVID-19 South African Budget Allocations and Reallocations Review; COVID-19 impact: Change in Employment by Occupation and Industry, Q4 2019 – Q1 2020, and rationale for COVID-19 reprioritisation criteria and the transport policy dimension.

COVID-19 South African budget allocations and Reallocations Review

The COVID-19 economic and budgetary impacts required to be back-casted into the February 2020 budget delivered by the Minister of Finance in South Africa. This was because the pandemic occurred after the 2020 budgets in South Africa had been completed. Granted that wide-ranging ramifications of the health and economic state of disaster are emanating from Covid-19, the necessity for budget adjustment in response to the crisis was inevitable. The budget re-allocations was effected in compliance with Section 30 (2) (a) of the public finance management act (PFMA), 1999 (Act No. 1 of 1999) (as amended by Act No. 29 of 1999), which empowers the Minister of Finance to table an adjustment budget when fiscal targets are compromised by significant and unforeseeable financial and economic events. Fig. 2 , presents the graphical illustrations in respect of global growth outlook projections, 2018–2021 (a) and Projections for GDP growth in South Africa, 2020) (b).

Fig. 2

Global growth outlook projections, 2018–2021 (a) and Projections for GDP growth in South Africa, 2020) (b).

Tax revenue underperformance expected to be R304.1 billion lower than the 2020 Budget estimate (National Treasury, 2020a). COVID-19 is occurring in the context of deep global and local growth contraction expected at both a global and local level. This economic context has implications in respect of fiscal space and leverage for generating and implementing COVID-19 transport policies and interventions. In this context, unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy interventions which have implications on transport policy leverage options are required to boost and manage the South African economy and transport transitions in support and advancement of restoring and injecting the South African economy to its pre- Covid-19 growth trajectory. This will not be an easy task as budget deficit has implications regarding the available transport infrastructure and services financial resources that are dwindling while the budget deficit is increasing (Refer to Fig. 3 .).

Fig. 3

Budget deficit as a percentage of GDP projections, 2018/19–2020/21 (a) and Government expenditure and economic growth, 2016–2022 (b).

Deficit reduction and debt stabilization targets attainment are compounded by the COVID-19 impact on the budget leaving the South African government with limited fiscal space to manoeuvre (Fig. 3.).

In the short to medium term, government is confronted with the need to balance expenditure reduction and meeting basic needs in a COVID-19 impacted economy. Locating and providing a catalytic role for transport through transport incentives for businesses and entrepreneurs will be vital in ensuring that the economy moves ahead without destroying the transport infrastructure and services base.

Given the argument that economic growth drives government expenditure, from a transport policy perspective, it is important that government focuses on creating a conducive environment for growth particularly targeting growth enhancing sectors (Odhiambo, 2015). In this set-up, the role that transport plays as an enabler and facilitator of socio-economic growth and development should never be under-estimated.

COVID-19 impact: change in employment by occupation and industry, Q4 2019 – Q1 2020

COVID-19 pandemic has affected all sectors of the economy but the impact is differentiated given whether a sector was classified as an essential or non-essential service. Table 5 , presents an overview of change in employment by occupation and industry in South Africa focusing on the first quarter of the year 2020.

Table 5

Change in employment by occupation and industry in South Africa (Q4 2019 – Q1 2020).

by Occupation	2019Q4-2020Q1 (change, thousand)	by Industry	2019Q4-2020Q1 (change, thousand)
Manager	4	Agriculture	−21
Professional	−22	Mining	6
Technician	−44	Manufacturing	−15
Clerk	−59	Utilities	−4
Sales and services	15	Construction	−7
Skilled agriculture	−10	Trade	71
Craft and related trade	33	Transport	−17
Plant and machine operator	11	Finance	−50
Elementary	44	Community and social services	−33
Domestic worker	−9	Private households	30
Other	−2	Other	2
Total employed	−38	Total employed	−38

The data (Table 5.), illustrates how jobs have been impacted by COVID-19 in South Africa. Job types such as clerks (59 000), technicians (44 000) and professionals (22 000) across all industrial categories suffered the most losses during the period under review. At the same time elementary jobs with a strong transport footprint (e.g., messengers, package and luggage porters and deliverers), craft, related trade and sales and services increased. This is linked to the rise of and need for essential services especially during various lockdown restriction levels in the country. Future transport policy may need to start shifting and drifting towards the incorporation of more small volume and freight delivery set-ups including incorporation of drone technologies and unmanned freight autonomous transport freight systems. The need to improve and dedicate future transport resources and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous contactless freight delivery transport and technologies cannot be over-emphasized.

In terms of jobs by industry, finance, community and social services and agriculture suffered the most job losses, whereas the trade industry gained. Given that transport is a derived demand, one can deduce that the non-transport COVID-19 policy actions implemented by government have affected the transport sector given the connections and linkages with all sectors of the economy. At the same time, the lack of implementation of a one governance transport whole government approach explains why transport policy considerations are placed at the end of the priority and treated as an appendage. The inadequate inclusion and fragmented incorporation of transport policy implicitly will have far-ranging long-term effects that the transport sector and economy in general must tackle in the future.

Rationale for COVID-19 reprioritisation criteria and the transport policy dimension

In the adjusted budget for 2020, the amount that was targeted for reprioritisation is R100,9 billion. For this to be possible, the national departments contributed 53,9%, provincial and local governments contribute 33,6% and 12,5% respectively. Table 6 , presents a graphical illustration of the reprioritisation criteria.

Table 6

COVID-19 transport policy implications of 2020 budget reprioritisation criteria.

Government Reprioritisation	Focus Financial and Fiscal Commission (FFC) Criteria	COVID 19 Transport Policy Implications
Government protected to a large extent basic services as it reprioritised.Education was not priority before but it was prioritised in the adjustment budget	Rights based approach: Protecting spending that caters for the basic rights of people (e.g. spending on basic services: water and sanitation, refuse removal);	Implicit transport policy prioritisation which is ad-hoc, fragmented and inadequateTransport policy viewed as a cross-cutting issue that can be divided and apportioned in various parts of the economy.
Evidently reprioritisation was not aggressive in grants with a rural focus and more aggressive on grants with an urban bias	Equity and fairness: Balancing rural vs urban (spatial equity), formal vs informal. For example, a grant dedicated to urban areas may be a better candidate for reprioritisation than a grant focusing on rural areas	Skewed transportation policy bias with interventions and progress in high density urban areas ignoring former rural homelands areas with high density in KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Limpopo with implications for accelerated transmissions and peaking of cases in such locations
The government reprioritised aggressively on funds or line items with a history of underperformance/underspending and those likely to be underspent due to Covid-19 related lockdown.	Spending performance: Reprioritising spending that exhibits consistent underspending, irregular or wasteful spending	Implicit resource re-mobilisation in the absence of a COVID-19 transport policy mitigation and adaptation planLack of a COVID-19 transport policy transition plan
Suspending allocations for capital and other departmental projects that could be delayed or rescheduled to later., e.g. the implementation of infrastructure projects at various museums and the National Archives, as well as some legacy projects, has been delayed due to the restrictions on the economy	Impact: Reprioritising spending that would have the least impact on livelihoods and the economy e.g. include travel, subsistence allowances, training and catering;	Lack of a cost-benefit, NPV and IRR decision models on opportunity costs for postponing public transport and infrastructure investments meant the Integrated Rapid Public Transport Network (IRPTN) and integrated rural public transport network (IRPTN) projects were targeted.
Reprioritisation was more aggressive on non-essential Covid-19 related spending, e.g.,• planned projects or planned construction projects was targeted • Scaling back on construction, Filling of vacancies suspended until later in the financial year e.g. vote 37	Essential vs non-essential to Covid-19: In determining where to prioritise, decision makers need to distinguish between essential departments or items of spending relative to non-essentialModerate compensation of employees	Lack of a COVID-19 prioritisation and financial implementation plan meant inadequacies as evidence based research and intelligence build on existing policy directions.The lack of systemic integration and COVID-19 transport policy reveals the inadequate data, research evidence and successive results of underfunding in research and development in the transport sector in the country

Granted that the COVID-19 pandemic occured without warning systems including for the transport sector, the responses by the South African government and by extension governments throughout the World reflect the existing transport policy systems resilience and adaptive capacities. The lack of adequate transport policies backed by strong datasets and modelling were exposed as an area that policy development in South Africa need to prioritise. Opportunities for repurposing streets and implementing mass scale pedestrian and bicycle highways could not be locked in as governments and municipalities were not aligned to take full advantage of the moment of opportunities presented to humanity for re-imaging and restructuring the architecture and engineering form and format of our transportation network and transport systems. These are obviously transport policy shortcomings accentuated by COVID-19 and happening without and in the absence of comprehensive transport plans. However, it should be highlighted that the issues brought to the fore were not completely new themes but existing issues that governments have been pedestrian in addressing. It is therefore argued that in future government can reconsider transport policy and investment decisions with better insight owing to the advantage and intelligence insights that COVID-19 has implied for the transport sector. Fig. 4 presents a graphical illustration of the budget reprioritisation by municipal and local government grants.

Fig. 4

Budget reprioritisation by municipal and local government grants.

These repeat reprioritisation/baseline cuts/suspensions is likely to have negative consequences in the medium to long term as this trend has been continuous (2017–2020) (refer to Fig. 4). Largest part of reprioritisation is from Municipal Infrastructure Grant (R4.4 billion), Urban Settlement Grant (R2.2 billion), Public Transport Network (R1billion). The grants where reprioritisations was the largest are in the Human Settlement Development Grant (R378million), Public transport Operation (R378million), Provincial Road Maintenance and Education Infrastructure (R4.4 billion) and Health Facility Revitalisation (R1billion) (National Treasury, 2020). This practice tends to compound uncertainties on subnational governments in terms of planning and service delivery and for transport planning and related infrastructure and services. This then hamstrings the capacity of the various spheres of government to realize the spirit and purpose enshrined in the respective comprehensive transport plans (CITPs), the integrated transport plans (ITPS), integrated development plans (IDPs), national infrastructure plan – 2012 (NIP) and the national transport master plan (NATMAP) as a few examples. This has direct effects on transport game changing investment and decisions thereby affecting infrastructure investment, asset rehabilitation, maintenance and replacement (i.e. stewardship and care functions); service delivery in the long run; and ultimately derails the country's from achieving the vision of a prosperous and wealthy South Africa as enunciated in the National Development Plan (NDP, 2030) as well as achieving international domesticated goals that contribute towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs). From a transport policy perspective, it can be argued that there is a need for a thorough assessment of the implications of the repeated reprioritisation of municipal infrastructure grants, urban development grants and public transport network grants albeit among other critical grants with a view to supporting and promoting the development of integrated transport and land use planning, creation, development and management of sustainable human settlements. These grants are important in promoting densification, addressing spatial fragmentation issues in major cities and throughout the spatial divide in the country, implementation of transit orientated development and development of world class public transport systems in the country. At the same time, grant linked projects create employment, assist in poverty alleviation, facilitate rural and urban development, education and health outcomes among others. The medium - long term impact of the reprioritisations especially on the infrastructure related grants will be established in years to come. However, from a transport policy perspective, it should be highlighted that such actions should not be allowed to affect the day to day operations of municipal infrastructure and service delivery in respect of maintenance and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure at least.

COVID-19 pandemic resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa

This section analyses the COVID-19 pandemic resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa. Themes covered include the following:

Covid-19 provincial institutional arrangements

The President has, on March 18, 2020, established a National Covid-19 Command Council (NCCC) that meets three times a week. The is supported by a technical committee comprising the respective Directors - General of the Ministries serving in the NCCC, which also meets three times a week (known as the National Command Centre). The COVID-19 institutional and governance system is headed by the national COVID-19 command centre that is chaired by the President of South Africa and Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs. This meets daily to review COVID-19 actions and directions. The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs oversees the disaster management Act, 2005 which is the umbrella legislation that permits the lockdown. The NATJOINTS has also been activated to provide overall coordination of the response to Covid-19 and meets daily. The NATJOINTS has various working streams that deals with an array of matters such as: Border Control and Travel Restrictions, Economic, Social, Public Health Containment and Legal and Regulatory matters. The Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA) has activated its Disaster Operations Centre (DOC) to coordinate local government response to COVID-19 from March 25, 2020. The DOC interfaces with the National Joint Intelligence and Operational Structure (NATJOINTS) and Provincial Joint Intelligence and Operational Structure (PROVJOINTS) structures. National Communication Core Team – led by Government Communication and Information System (GCIS) (All departments and Provinces Office of the Premier (OTP)) - (Reporting to National Joint Intelligence and Operational Structure (NATJOINTS)) and Provincial Communications Core Teams – led by OTP & GCIS (Reporting to Provincial Joint Intelligence and Operational Structure (PROVJOINTS)). The national command centre is comprised of the following: Input from experts in respect of Epidemiological trends; Advice from the NICD; Ministerial Advisory Committee on Health and COVID-19; Ministers of government; and All Premiers of Provinces, Mayors, Director Generals (DGs) of Departments and Member of Mayoral Committees (MMCs).

In addition, Ministers may issue additional directions to grant exemptions and clarify ambiguities in the sectors and sub-sectors allowed to operate at each alert level, and the conditions under which they may operate. All provinces have established similar institutional structures i.e. Provincial Command Councils and Provincial Command Centres to coordinate response within their areas of jurisdiction. Metros and Districts have also established/activated similar institutional structures. The COGTA COVID-19 DOC serves as a nerve centre for overall coordination of national, provincial and local government operations guided by the principles of cooperative governance set out in Chapter 3 of the Constitution read with Section 154 thereof. The DOC is staffed primarily by COGTA Senior Managers as well as Managers from the NDMC. The DOC operates from 07:00 to 19:00 daily. All provinces have activated their Provincial Disaster Management Centres (PDMCs). The President convenes Presidential Coordinating Committee (PCC) meetings regularly on Covid-19 matters.

Public transport regulations overview

In terms of the public transport regulations, public transport may only operate during specific times and must follow safety and hygiene directions issued by National Government. The key highlights of the public transport regulations include the following:

No person will be allowed to use any form of Public Transport if they do not wear a cloth face mask or a homemade item that covers nose and mouth.

Public transport is permitted to operate from 05h00–19h00, and drivers must ensure that the drop-off is completed by 19h00.

E-hailing, meter taxis, shuttle services, chauffeur driven vehicles are permitted to carry not more than 50% of their permissible passenger carrying capacity.

Mini and Midibus Taxi vehicles must not carry more than 70% of their maximum licenced passenger carrying capacity.

Buses are permitted to carry not more than 50% of their permissible passenger carrying capacity which includes both seating and standing passengers.

All owners of public transport facilities must on regular intervals sanitise their facilities and provide adequate sanitisers or other hygiene dispenser.

Owners of public transport facilities must put measures in place to adhere to physical distancing to curb the spread of the virus.

Operators MUST sanitise vehicles before and after transporting passengers.

Drivers and any marshal or security officer who interacts with members must wear a cloth face mask or a homemade item that covers nose and mouth.

While public transport operators are not legally required to have hand sanitiser on board, this is advised best practice and should be encouraged.

The operationalization of national guidelines and protocols is cascaded through provinces, districts to the local level to ensure that at the neighbourhood, street and household scale level the COVID-19 rules and regulations are implemented, enforced and observed. Table 7 , presents the summary of Provincial COVID-19 Provincial Command Councils in South Africa.

Table 7

Summary of provincial COVID-19 provincial command Councils.

Provinces	Provincial Command Council	Provincial Command Centre	Provincial Disaster Centre
Eastern Cape	The Command Council has been established and chaired by Premier and Heads of Departments (HODS)	Operational through the Provinces -joints chaired by the DG. Operating at the Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC) venue	All provincial command Structures established
Free State	The Command Council to be established and chaired by Premier	Technical Structure established and Chaired by the Director General (DG)	Structures established
Gauteng	Command Centre established chaired by the Premier	A war room established chaired by the DG	Existing structures that are however, named differently
KwaZulu-Natal	Established and chaired by the Premier	Established and chaired by the DG	Structures established
Limpopo	Established and chaired by the Premier and attended by all MEC's	Established and chaired by the DG	5 District Disaster Management centres established
Mpumalanga	Command Council established and chaired by Premier	Command centre established and chaired by DG	Structures established
Northern Cape	Command Council established and chaired by the Premier	Command centre established and operational through PROVJOINT, chaired by DG	Structures established
North West	The Command Council Established and chaired by the Premier	Command centre established and operational, reporting daily on SRS System	All Structures established
Western Cape	Extended Cabinet and Inter-Ministerial Committee established and operational	Structure has been established and operational	The province has established clusters per sector within the provincial technical structure

The COVID-19 structures have considered existing structures at the provincial, district and local implementation levels. While this was prudent given time and the need to act swiftly, however from a transport policy perspective these structures could have been augmented along the way for much sharper input by transportation and related experts and disciplines. While the evidence-based research advisory approach from an epidemiological and scientist studying virology et cetera, is acknowledged, the shortcoming of the approaches was a failure also to tap on relevant professionals such as transport policy and planning experts for a full response to the COVID-19 challenges.

Public transport response: the case of the city of Cape Town

In the Western Cape province, the COVID-19 Institutional organisation has been further reduced into practice by ensuring that the relevant transport department spearheads the transport policy implementation and oversee the policy discourses. The Provincial Transport Planning and Coordination Committee has been established to monitor and respond to public transport during lockdown, Alert Level 4 and beyond. The gap in the establishment of the Committee only starting under level 4 is a reflection on the fact that transport governance systems that existed prior to the COVId-19 pandemic were not fully prepared and designed to tackle fully pandemics despite the existence of disaster preparedness committees at provincial level.

However, on the other hand the fact that the transport governance systems could respond quickly also shows the system's ability to be robust and adapt to changing circumstances in as short a time as possible. The Committee is a joint initiative of the Department of Transport and Public Works and the City of Cape Town. During lockdown 4, 3 and advanced lockdown 3 levels, the committee was meeting every second day of the week. The Committee is based at the disaster management centre (DMC), from where the public transport situation is monitored live. A daily report is produced, capturing issues and trends. Through the Committee, comments have been submitted to the National Department of Transport on the various regulations and directions which have been issued to date.

In respect of compliance monitoring, the Committee implemented the daily monitoring of public transport operations at Public Transport Interchanges (PTIs) in partnership with the City of Cape Town, to monitor compliance with the regulations. This began on the 5th April in both the morning (AM) and afternoon (PM) operations and continued uninterpreted until a brief stoppage after the 25th April14 owing to contractual matters with the service provider. The USSD App was launched on the 27th April as a cellphone-based system that passengers can use to provide feedback on compliance of public transport operators with the COVID-19 regulations. A USSD is a simple messaging service that can be used for free on any cellphone to receive and input short text messages (max. 167 characters per screen). This system is widely used to purchase airtime or for cellphone banking. USSD passenger system allows us to get feedback directly from public transport passengers – launched 27th April (refer to Fig. 5 .). The service is free to use for passengers and can be used on any cellphone. Passengers will be asked what mode of public transport they are using and whether there is compliance with the following: Vehicle capacities, Use of a mask by driver, Availability of hand sanitiser on board, and Cleanliness of the vehicle.

Fig. 5

The public transport USSD monitoring compliance app – a sample of examples of screenshots captured.

Live monitoring of minibus taxi (MBT) ranks and operations is also occurring at the DMC through the monitoring and assessment of video surveillance at several PTIs and receipt of feedback from stakeholders and the public. Issues identified are responded to proactively by the Committee, including engagement with the minibus taxi industry (and other operators), site visits at any problem ranks and liaison with law enforcement. The reporting used an app developed for monitoring the compliance of regulations at each operational PTI, including: Sanitisation of both vehicles and facilities, Vehicle capacity restrictions, Public transport operating time restrictions – during Level 5 Drivers compliance in terms of wearing masks, and With new regulations, monitoring started to cover use of masks by passengers/commuters.

Fig. 5, presents the public transport USSD monitoring compliance app – examples of screenshots. Meanwhile, Fig. 6 , presents the public transport USSD compliance monitoring dashboard.

Fig. 6

The USSD public transport compliance monitoring dashboard.

The received responses (from Fig. 11 USSD data capturing app) fed into the USSD public transport compliance monitoring dashboard (Fig. 6.). The information and data stored in the dashboard – allowed for analysis and identification of recurring issues at certain ranks. This helps in transport policy planning, monitoring and evaluation highlighting the space for big data analytics,AI and digital app in improving transport services and planning including during pandemics. Fig. 7 , presents a graphical illustration of compliance monitoring analysis.

Fig. 11

NAQI status in plattekloof for ozone (O3), nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) (Cape Town) during April and May 2020.

Fig. 7

Illustration of compliance monitoring analysis.

The main issues raised by public transport users include the following: lack of vehicle and facility sanitisation. PTI deep cleaning and sanitisation has been implemented by the City of Cape Town - deep cleaning/sanitisation at 2 PTIs per day. Fig. 8 , presents a graphical illustration of PTIs requiring attention as indicated by report returns on the 22nd April 2020.

Fig. 8

Percentages of ‘Bad’ responses – 22nd April 2020.

In respect of percentages of bad responses, Joe Gqabi, Nomzamo and Wynberg were identified as problem ranks. These matters were escalated for resolution and to be addressed through proactive interventions by the Committee. The issues have been raised with the minibus taxi industry and law enforcement has been alerted. This combined with a whole government and stakeholders’ approach that is inclusive transport policy and engagement strategy is an important cooperative transport policy dimension that is important in dealing with transport matters that hinge on social behavioural change and social policing to be successful. This unified transport governance approach has enabled the following successes, raising the importance of PPPs even beyond the COVID-19 pandemic as a tenacious policy implementation and management tool for financing public transport infrastructure and services et cetera, namely:

Social distancing lines painted at 50 PTI's by the City.

Social distance adherence has been observed at 13 PTIs thus far – proactive educational approach is being undertaken by representative of the Committee through site visits at the PTI's with members of the MBT industry.

Several PPE donations for the MBT Industry received.

Through monitoring of MBT operations noted a decrease in non-compliance with issues such as face masks and hand sanitiser at some ranks when this was distributed within the MBT Industry.

A distribution model has been developed in relation to the associations and their relevant sizes. Donations will be distributed as per this model.

Dramatic increase in passengers since the transition into Level 4 lockdown with 65,792 passengers observed at PTIs on Monday 3rd May.

Non-compliance with loading restrictions and the unavailability of hand sanitiser on vehicles remain challenges in certain areas.

Recurring incidents of non-compliance have been reported at Mitchells Plain, for example, and are being addressed through the Committee.

The DTPW is monitoring compliance of public transport operators and users with the lockdown Regulations and Directions issued by National Government

COVID 19 and public transport communications

Information and guidance has been communicated to the public and to public transport operators’ using various channels. Multiple media releases and events e.g. taxi rank site visits by MEC. Fig. 9 , presents public poster at PTIs on Public Transport and COVID-19 Safety Campaign.

Fig. 9

Public Poster at PTIs on Public Transport and COVID-19 Safety Campaign, We need to help keep the public transport community safe (a) and COVID-19 Stay Safe on public transport (b).

Information materials developed and circulated, including flyers and posters covering transport, health and safety under COVID-19 conditions. 8000 were produced for placing inside minibus taxis. Began prior to lockdown and included Metrorail and Golden Arrow Bus Services (GABS). Transport-specific social media communication including Twitter, short message service (SMS) and regular webpage updates is also employed. South African National Taxi Council (SANTACO) was issued with 8000 posters, which are to be affixed on the inside of the minibus-taxi (MBT) for the duration of the lockdown. Information and guidance has been communicated to the public and to public transport operators’ using various channels. The use of public address (PA) systems at PTIs to inform passengers of social distancing requirements and capacity restrictions. In addition, three moving billboards in hotspot areas were procured to assist with further dissemination. Overall, in terms of public transport COVID-19 messaging, the initial focus was on Khayelitsha, Du Noon, and Beaufort West. This is because these are key entry points to the Province and were also hotspots for COVID-19 cases.

Capacity restrictions

DPTW works closely with the bus services it oversees (Golden Arrow Bus Services (GABS), GoGeorge) to ensure compliance with the capacity restrictions imposed by National Government. The DTPW has created a FAQ document which outlines the exact capacity restrictions for different types of vehicles, both public and private. This has been distributed and used by various government stakeholders. The two monitoring systems implemented (PTI/USSD) include monitoring of adherence to vehicle capacity restrictions. The vehicle capacity restrictions have also been provided in a checklist format to Law Enforcement Officials working at roadblocks and Provincial borders, to ensure that such regulations are fully understood and complied with. The following hygiene and safety protocols are in place for public transport commuters, namely:

Golden Arrow Bus Services (GABS) are monitored daily to ensure compliance with vehicle sanitisation requirements.

Regular vehicle sanitisation procedures are being followed.

MyCiTi buses are regularly sanitised at the depots of the Volatile organic compounds (VOCs).

The deep cleaning and sanitisation of all operational PTIs occurs on a rotational basis with 2 PTI facilities being cleaned/sanitised daily.

Temperature testing of all staff at GABS is ongoing on entry and exit at all operational depots.

DTPW has assisted with the procurement and distribution of sanitiser and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to GABS, GeorgeLink, City of Cape Town (MyCiTi) and South Africa National Taxi Council (SANTACO) Western Cape.

Items distributed to SANTACO WC to date include gloves, hand sanitiser, bottles, masks and disposable protective wear and these were sourced by DTPW and National Department of Transport (DoT)

The Committee has also received several donations of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for the minibus taxi (MBT) Industry, including masks and sanitiser.

Ongoing monitoring of MBT operations identified a decrease in non-compliance with issues such as face masks and hand sanitiser at some ranks when this was distributed to MBT Industry.

A distribution model has been developed in relation to the associations and their relevant sizes. Donations are distributed as per this model.

The Department manages the GoGeorge bus service and, together with the George Municipality and the Vehicle Operator, has implemented a range of measures to stop the spread of COVID- 19 and ensure compliance with the regulations. The following measures are in place, namely: Buses are sanitised regularly; Buses undergo a deep cleaning cycle (with pressure steam cleaners) at least once a week; Drivers are provided with masks and gloves, and personal hand sanitisers; Hand sanitiser dispensers have been fixed on buses and made available to the passengers; Drivers’ temperatures are screened at the depot before commencing their duties and when exiting the depot; and Buses are operating at maximum of 50% of their licenced capacity.

Emergent perfect and imperfect transport policy and planning interventions to close COVID -19 pandemic gaps

This section reviews and analyses emergent perfect and imperfect transport policy and planning interventions being implemented to close COVID -19 pandemic gaps. The themes covered include:

National Air Quality Index and case studies of Cape Town, George and Kayelisha.

Policy analysis and directions – emerging transport policy narratives, scriptures and signatures.

National air quality index

The department of environment, forestry, and fisheries (DFFE) in South Africa has developed a National Air Quality Index (NAQI) in line with best international practices to simplify the reporting of air quality to the public in terms of current conditions. NAQI is derived from six criteria pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3, SO2 and NO2), and the index is based on the pollutants measured at the location, with a range: 1 = very good → 10 = hazardous. Fig. 10 , presents maps showing NAQI Status in South Africa during Lockdown level 4 (Date: May 8, 2020) and Lockdown advanced level 3 (Date: August 8, 2020).

Fig. 10

NAQI Status in South Africa during Lockdown level 4 (Date: May 8, 2020) (a) and NAQI Status in South Africa during Lockdown advanced level 3 (Date: August 8, 2020) (b); NAQI Status in South Africa during Lockdown adjusted level 3 (c); and NAQI Status in South Africa during Lockdown re-adjusted level 3 (d) NAQI Status in South Africa during Lockdown re-adjusted level 1.

Overall, with restricted economic activities and most private motorists traffic not in circulation, emissions levels typically show a downward trend. This has resonated with a strong public transport and transition to a low carbon economy transport perspective dialogue point that has not been conclusively resolved in South Africa. While the need for the shift from private to public modes is recognized in policy, practical implementation has been delayed by lack of an efficient public transport network and service. However, this motorisation debate may become more complex to address in future unless a vaccine for COVID-19 is quickly found as social (physical) distancing reinforce private automobile dependency model rather than public transit based models. Fig. 11, presents maps showing NAQI Status for Plattekloof (Cape Town) during the months of April and May 2020.

The emission levels for (O3) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) were on average moderate to very good at Index level 1. Fig. 12 , presents maps showing NAQI Status for Stellenbosch (Cape Town) measured for the period from the 1st of March – May 6, 2020.

Fig. 12

NAQI Status in Stellenbosch NO, NO2, NOX (a), PM10, PM2.5 (b) and SO2 (c): Reporting period 1st March – May 6, 2020.

The observed trend in Stellenbosch highlights a decline in Decline in NOX, PM and SO2. This can be interpreted in the context of the reduction in daily values reflecting possible reduction in transport activity. Fig. 13 , NAQI presents the status in Stellenbosch CO2 (a), O3 (b) and NO2 (c) Diurnal Variation Pre-Lockdown versus Lockdown.

Fig. 13

NAQI status in Stellenbosch CO2 (a), O3 (b) and NO2 (c) diurnal variation pre-lockdown versus lockdown.

In Stellenbosch, Pre-Lockdown: GHG: CO2 measured 410–430 ppm. However, they existed a pronounced diurnal cycles (daily). On the other hand, Lockdown: GHG: CO2 averages 418 ppm, comparable to global average of 415 ppm. There is no diurnal variation, reflecting reduced traffic emissions. These statistics present transport policy examples of indirect traffic management leading to reduced air pollution. These are some transport policy tools that require optimistaion in respect of being used as potential air pollution management tool. Fig. 14 , presents emissions status levels for George Sulphur Oxide (a) and Ozone (b): Reporting period 1st March – May 6, 2020.

Fig. 14

George Sulphur Oxide (a) and Ozone (b): Reporting period 1st March – April 14, 2020.

In George, over the short term it appears that SO2 and O3 have declined. However, this is not apparent for NOX. The primary sources of NOx save for motor vehicles (whose volumes have been reduced significantly by the lockdown) include the electric utilities, and other industrial, commercial, and residential sources that burn fuels, which have remained relatively stable. Fig. 15 , presents diurnal variation emission levels for Kayelitsha Prelockdown (a) and Lockdown (b).

Fig. 15

Kayelitsha prelockdown (a) and lockdown (b).

In Kayelitsha, there is no visible difference in air pollutant concentrations measured during lockdown compared to the pre-lockdown period. However, the diurnal (daily) peaks shifted 3 h later during lockdown. At the same time, a shift in diurnal distribution (daily peaks) was observed, likely the result of the curfew times which has impacted on the transport patterns. Overall these preliminary air quality monitoring preliminary results for Stellenbosch and George highlight a definite reduction in daily concentrations of criteria air pollutants, reflecting possible reduction in transport and industrial activity. On the other hand, in Khayelitsha, there is a shift in daily cycle likely linked to curfew times. From a transport policy perspective to witness significant shift in transport demand and supply requires strong and decisive leadership which democratic transport governance systems cannot be able to achieve. The impact of forced lockdowns and curfew show visible changes with respect to the transport atlas and carbon footprint in the case study areas. On the other hand, one could argue that traditional ways of consultation and engagement should be better employed making use of AI, big data analytics and VR as examples of seeking credible and quick turnaround systems. In terms of traffic management (e.g. telecommuting) and reduced industrial activity leading to reduced air pollution presents a potential air pollution management tool that requires optimisation.

Policy analysis and directions – emerging transport policy narratives, scriptures and signatures

The word cloud (collage) diagram (Refer to Fig. 11) summarises the key policy analysis and directions in respect of emerging transport policy narratives, scriptures and signatures as illustrated by the key words that institutions, leaders and stakeholders referenced in various consultations, dialogues and documents in the quest to manage the COVID-19 epidemic. Fig. 16 , presents a word cloud graphics on COVID 19 and transport policy and related sectors.

Fig. 16

Word cloud on Covid 19 and transport policy and related sectors.

From Fig. 16, we can deduce that the transport policy words that are coming up relate to resilience, connection, linkages, communication, platforms, technology, and interaction. Future transport and related policies must factor in these themes in review and new policy and strategy development. Matters of curfew and lockdown are linked to transport policy issues of enforcement and compliance. Transport logistics and policy arrangements have implications to transport systems and abilities to respond to pandemics as long chains are vulnerable to travel bans and the closure of international borders. It is for these reasons that freight transport and goods transportation was exempted from the border ban although strict health protocols had to be applied.

Discussion

This section presents a discussion of the implications of the research results and findings for transport policy making and (re)formulation. These implications are discussed in line with the three main research objectives of the study. These are in terms of: emergent COVID-19 implications on transport and related sectors in South Africa – transport policy drifts, shifts, changes and tensions; emergent perfect and imperfect transport policy and planning interventions to close the COVID-19 pandemic gap. This is discussed from a perspective of the existence of a policy conundrum. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa – seeking for a timeless, ageless and advancement in transport resilience policies and strategies section closes the section's discussion.

Emergent COVID-19 implications on transport and related sectors in South Africa – transport policy drifts, shifts, changes and tensions

In reviewing the transport policies and COVID-19 timeline and implementation responses by the government of South Africa, it is important to highlight some key fundamental issues. Given the “novelty” of COVID-19, it is submitted that as the pandemic evolved and continues to evolve, no one can lay claim to having all the answers to the COVID-19 generated issues and challenges let alone in the transport industry. The pandemic happened in a context in which the capacity, capabilities, constraints and limitations of Government are well documented. It is for this reason that others identify the COVID-19 pandemic as an open learning and living laboratory and site for all humanity. This indeed presents interesting laboratory test and beds for revisiting and assessing the efficiency or inefficiencies of existing and planned transport policy and related interventions. At the same time the unique history of South Africa placed limitations on the choice and decisions that the leaders could make.

Policy options around repurposing and innovative street use have implications for alternative street façade and designs including the need to promote walkability and walkable and friendly cities. The approach taken by the South African government with respect to COVID and transport policy dimensions and perspectives have the following characteristics: A cautious approach that seeks to balance saving lives, livelihoods and the economy; Gradual and Incremental based on five lockdown levels; and Risk Adjusted approach that seeks to incorporate all risks including COVID-19 transport and related sectors risks and their full value chain implications in the economy. Fig. 17 , presents a menu of smart technologies used in the COVID-19 induced environment that has far wide and ranging policy implications beyond the pandemic.

Fig. 17

An illustrative framework for transport systems and policy resilience COVID-19 and post-COVID 19.

Fig. 17, is an illustrative framework for transport systems and policy resilience COVID-19 and post-COVID 19. From Fig. 17, we can deduce that policy options and planning should focus on stimulating and growing investment in areas of smart technology roll-out and upscaling. These have implications in respect of shifts in transport and logistics demand, direction and (r)evolution. Another policy dimension is the need to develop rapid response and adaptation in times of crisis.

Social and economic relief policies, water and sanitation interventions, the encouragement of school e-learning pedagogies deployment etc., all are interventions based on an efficient physical transport system, or invisible fiber internet system or physical connectivity system based on GPS towers and coverage areas with strong signals, which have been exposed as part of the digital divide constraint and challenge in South Africa and developing countries in general. At the same time, the implementation of market driven transport policies that guarantee competition in the transport and communication industry does not guarantee that universal transport and access to technology, will be attained in any country. In South Africa, the government has therefore engaged in various activities aimed at improving the transport and related sectors policies adaptive capacity in supporting the resilience of transport governance and related systems to fight epidemics/pandemics such as represented by COVID-19.

Emergent perfect and imperfect transport policy and planning interventions to close the COVID-19 pandemic gap - a policy conundrum

Indeed, the pandemic has amplified the visible and invisible transport and logistics lines between the “haves” and “don't have”, between the digitally advantaged and digitally disadvantaged with implications that run through the full gamut of working from home scenarios to online schooling. Indeed, future interventions and policy priorities have to focus on investing in closing the digital divide, growing the digital economy, focusing on basic facilities such as improvement of health systems and facilities because when pandemic hit, these are the fall-back systems, which have been found vulnerable owing to being under-prepared and ill-adapted to providing a resilient system. The issue that the pandemic makes the old vulnerable, those with comorbidities susceptible while disrupting the learning regimes for children suggest that future policy and options should place at the centre the old, health, persons with disabilities and young at the centre of transport planning, policy and interventions than has happened before. Fig. 18 , presents a graphical illustration of the COVID-19 pandemic/epidemic gaps and transport policy conundrum.

Fig. 18

COVID-19 pandemic/epidemic gaps and transport policy conundrum.

As highlighted in Fig. 18, the need to pursue and adopt a multi-pronged approach in seeking to perfect COVID-19 transport and related policies is a delicate balancing act that places public health interventions at the centre of the transport policy discourse. Balance has to be achieved among implementing economic rescue packages and preserving societal functioning while protecting lives. The question that begs an answer is what steering mechanism is required in facilitating sustainable development under such conditions. One can argue as represented by replete literature that transport plays a steering mechanism and engine role in enabling all sectors of the economy to optimally function including the health sector. In this case of COVID-19, the health transport logistics and value chain policies should be based and anchored on an efficient transport logistics industry that maximises speed of delivery while minimising cost of linking products to various markets or demand areas.

Developing physical resilience of both urban and rural places, inland and coastal areas is critical in the fight against COVID-19. Transport and related policies should be amended to include by-laws that allow for flexible land uses, rezoning and mixed uses in which successor, secondary and future uses that incorporate new space planning and repurposing of public streets, buildings, housing apartments/neighbourhoods and factories must consider much more strongly the health, disaster and hazard implications of architectural designs, structures, buildings and engineering solutions is essential. While old buildings, developments and structures may have to undergo retrofitting exercises, new developments can explore and incorporate new smart ways of system planning considering IoTs, AI, Autonomous vehicles etc., as part of creating a future technological and human-interaction compliant based communities.

COVID-19 pandemic resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa – seeking for a timeless, ageless and advancement in transport resilience policies and strategies

This review and study findings highlight the existence of an imperfect transport policy model system whose vulnerabilities were further exposed by COVID-19 pandemic. However, at the same time, this begs the policy question as to the ability and capacity of the transport policies and governance systems to re-invent themselves so that in the event of epidemics and disasters the policies and systems do not reproduce and recycle the systemic inefficiencies and faults but transform and metamorphose into the next advanced transport policies and systems. A combination of interrelated and interdependent issues such as lack of a transport and health generic themes and strong focus, inadequate transport and health logistics platforms among others have resulted in an imperfect transport policy model system (Refer to Fig. 19 .).

Fig. 19

The Imperfect transport policy model system.

As highlighted in Fig. 19, the need to improve the research budgeting, funding and investment (including for the transport sector) to at least 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) will assist with transport substitute technology research and development. Granted that transport is a derived demand and a cross-cutting enabling factor for development and system shock development, it is important that the sector be supported in all facets of growth and development. Additionally, long term projects such as national transport master plan (NATMAP), 2050, Green Transport policy, rural transport strategy (revised 2018) (RTS), national spatial development framework (draft 2019) (NSDF) et cetera have missed opportunities and paid lip service to disaster risk reduction and resilience planning. Urgent policy reviews in the short term in terms of briefs that highlight the low hanging fruits that can be implemented in the fight against COVID-19, suggest medium term interventions (e.g., five-year implementation strategic plans) and long-term interventions (revised long term plans, training and capacity building for future professions and jobs), etc. should become top agenda priority items.

In seeking to make perfect, the imperfect COVID-19 transport and related policy actions, initiatives and interventions, the following issues and their full policy cycle analysis and risk management implications15 should be fully considered, namely:

Developing a contact tracing strategy in the context of both high risk and low risk areas is an important policy strategy in seeking to stop the transmission chain. This also raises the transport policy matter with respect to the role and contribution of essential workers, front-line workers and freight transport workers can have in breaking or extending the chain of transmission. This suggest that countries, regions and by extension, the world could explore the development of COVID-19 green transport corridors as well as red-lining specific corridors that require close attention as the World reopens as a possible policy coping mechanism. However, specific criteria and guidelines regarding inclusion and exclusion will require to be agreed at an international and bilateral level.

Future transport and related policies should be informed by the need to further digitalisation and advancement in the use of technology as a way of future proofing and building resilience (at least based on historical precedents) in the fight against similar and related future virus pandemics/epidemics that may possibly hypothetically become repetitive and more frequent.

Urban areas, cities, regions, and rural areas need to craft forward thinking transport and related policies, and plans that balance reliance on centralised with decentralised planning markets, institutions, institutes, economic activities etc. This is because the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the vulnerabilities that all areas have owing to dependence on global logistics value chain covering health supply of PPEs, pharmaceutical supplies, food, and necessities et cetera. The quick policy fix is for all governments (national, provincial, and local and including regional bodies) to quickly commission and write policy briefs that update various policies to take into cognisance COVID-19 pandemic, epidemics, and disasters in seeking to build resilient cities, communities and sectors of the economy.

The major long-term strategies and policies such as the National Transport Master Plan (NATMAP) 2050, National Infrastructure Plan (2012), National Development Plan (2030); National Spatial Development Framework (2020) should be updated so that they are resilient and robust enough to be flexible and adept at the changing dynamics of the world and environmental ecosystems such as induced by pandemics and extreme weather conditions.

Conclusions

In this article, a description of the emergent COVID-19 implications on the transport and related sectors in South Africa has been portrayed. At the same time, a critical review of how the COVID-19 pandemic has stretched the resilience and adaptive transport systems capacity in South Africa has been advanced. The discussion has also evaluated whether on-going policy and planning interventions constitute imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps.

Consequently, as COVID-19 spreads throughout the World, diverse coping strategies have emerged across cities and communities in the Global South. Cities, urban and rural nodes have become hotspots for contagion outbreaks due to population density and economic agglomeration. In this set-up, transport and related policies aimed at responding and managing the COVID-19 pandemic have either factored partially, implicitly and as work in progress the following pointers and cues in seeking to develop robust policies, namely:

Transport policies and related strategies are based on benchmarking experiences from other countries. This is in terms of learning from different strategies based on massive testing (e.g. Germany and South Korea), contact tracing (e.g. Japan and Singapore) and social distancing (e.g. geographic segmentation in China). All these policy experiences have improved knowledge on potential transport and related policies for cities, regions and communities to slow down contagion and fatalities linked to COVID-19 in various parts of the World.

From a COVID-19 transport and related policy discourse, during the lockdown and the ongoing gradual reopening of the economy, it has been instrumental to find creative ways to distribute aid, stagger work schedules, and optimize public transport to make social distancing possible. These innovations while not new call for a transport policy and related culture review and change as we move forward humans to the next civilisation levels.

Indeed, pandemic planning as enunciated through the COVID-19 pandemic and its ramifications in the transport sector should not be treated as a stand-alone policy planning and intervention project. While transport policy and systems were slow to saturate new structures with fresh cultures of shared purposes, alignment of functions and collaborative dispositions, however an underlying adaptive transport policy and governance resilience structure and architecture was the backbone upon which reactions, actions and strategies were built on. In addition, organic and associative formal and informal organisational behaviour (i.e. what one may term transport policy habitus behaviour) emerged as fragmented and ad-hoc systemic responses that although inefficient and not optimized are effective in facilitating transport policy transitions in fighting epidemics/pandemics such as posed by COVID-19 back. Prospecting ahead, therefore, transport policy and governance systems should be better and more integrated with existing crisis management structures and procedures at the local, regional and national level for better responses and action. This highlights the importance of the networked transport policy and multi-layered governance responses that are in sync with international trends and incorporate advise from the World Health Organisation (WHO) (in this instance), but also connected to the local or ward-based transport policy and governance institutional realities as projected by initiatives and efforts from the grassroots in fighting COVID-19 transport and related constraints.

Overall, one can argue for a case requiring the need for more structured evidence based modelling to measure transmission risk, testing, objective criteria for determining “essential” products and services, redesigning workspaces and public spaces, temperature checks, hygiene, sanitizing, personal protective equipment (PPEs), social distancing, and limiting large numbers of people. The World inevitably must be committed to reviewing, recasting and innovating transport and related policies in terms of the following:

Redesigning transport and related business models for resilience beyond pandemics, epidemics, extreme weather events and disasters,

Creating greater transport and related sectors policy space and appetite to embracing, incorporating and optimising much more than before the use of artificial intelligence and robotics e.g., drones for emergency medical supplies and food stock to peripheral and remote communities in future proofing transport infrastructure and services and the economy in general;

Fully exploiting existing policy and fiscal opportunities e.g., integrated development planning budgeting, allocation and prioritisation in district and local municipalities, re-purposing sector budgets for health, education, water and sanitation, transport et cetera for widening and expanding digital infrastructure, services and channels considering the need to address the digital inequalities, unemployment, poverty, marginalised, disadvantaged and minorities in a country/community as a way of seeking to create strong and resilient adaptive transport systems and related institutions;

Continued research and development as well as curriculum review targeted at generating a wide array of options and models in implementing tele-commuting for changing jobs, work employment arrangements as well as business and leisure trips configurations;

Reviewing, redesigning transport and logistics laws and regulations, policies and strategies, norms and practices in respect of health protocols and imperatives considering sanitizing, social distancing, new social norms and practices on masks, gloves, personal protective equipment (PPEs), transparent screens, as well as promoting new human contactless interaction systems and platforms that exclude handshaking, hugging, pecking/kissing as alternatives to traditional contact based human interaction even if a vaccine may be found as the new culture may gain traction to be blended into new future human interaction traditions.

Author contributions

J.C. solely conceived and wrote the paper.

Data availability

There is no data availability statement as no new data was generated by this research.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in the submitted article are the authors own and not an official position of the institution or funder.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Declaration of competing interest

The author declare that they have no financial or personal relationship(s) that may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article.