Literature DB >> 35650464

Experiencing statistical information improves children's and adults' inferences.

Christin Schulze1, Ralph Hertwig2.   

Abstract

How good are people's statistical intuitions? Recent research has highlighted that sequential experience of statistical information improves adults' statistical intuitions relative to situations where this information is described. Yet little is known about whether this is also the case for children's statistical intuitions. In a study with 100 children (8-11 years old) and 100 adults (19-35 years old), we found that sequentially experiencing statistical information improved both adults' and children's inferences in two paradigmatic reasoning problems: conjunction and Bayesian reasoning problems. Moreover, adults' statistical competencies when they learned statistical information through description were surpassed by children's inferences when they learned through experience. We conclude that experience of statistical information plays a key role in shaping children's reasoning under uncertainty-a conclusion that has important implications for education policy.
© 2022. The Author(s).

Entities:  

Keywords:  Bayesian probability updating; Conjunction rule; Description–experience gap; Statistical intuitions

Year:  2022        PMID: 35650464     DOI: 10.3758/s13423-022-02075-3

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Psychon Bull Rev        ISSN: 1069-9384


  25 in total

1.  G*Power 3: a flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences.

Authors:  Franz Faul; Edgar Erdfelder; Albert-Georg Lang; Axel Buchner
Journal:  Behav Res Methods       Date:  2007-05

2.  Experienced Probabilities Increase Understanding of Diagnostic Test Results in Younger and Older Adults.

Authors:  Bonnie Armstrong; Julia Spaniol
Journal:  Med Decis Making       Date:  2017-02-15       Impact factor: 2.583

3.  Age-trend-related differences in tasks involving conjunctive probabilistic reasoning.

Authors:  Francesca Chiesi; Giorgio Gronchi; Caterina Primi
Journal:  Can J Exp Psychol       Date:  2008-09

4.  What the Future Holds and When: A Description-Experience Gap in Intertemporal Choice.

Authors:  Junyi Dai; Thorsten Pachur; Timothy J Pleskac; Ralph Hertwig
Journal:  Psychol Sci       Date:  2019-07-18

Review 5.  Infant Statisticians: The Origins of Reasoning Under Uncertainty.

Authors:  Stephanie Denison; Fei Xu
Journal:  Perspect Psychol Sci       Date:  2019-06-11

6.  Reasoning about conjunctive probabilistic concepts in childhood.

Authors:  John E Fisk; Rachel Slattery
Journal:  Can J Exp Psychol       Date:  2005-09

7.  Children's understanding of posterior probability.

Authors:  Vittorio Girotto; Michel Gonzalez
Journal:  Cognition       Date:  2007-03-27

8.  Chimpanzees Consider Humans' Psychological States when Drawing Statistical Inferences.

Authors:  Johanna Eckert; Hannes Rakoczy; Josep Call; Esther Herrmann; Daniel Hanus
Journal:  Curr Biol       Date:  2018-05-31       Impact factor: 10.834

9.  Bayesian probability estimates are not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes' rule in elementary situations.

Authors:  Artur Domurat; Olga Kowalczuk; Katarzyna Idzikowska; Zuzanna Borzymowska; Marta Nowak-Przygodzka
Journal:  Front Psychol       Date:  2015-08-17

10.  Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses.

Authors:  Sebastian Hafenbrädl; Ulrich Hoffrage
Journal:  Front Psychol       Date:  2015-08-04
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