(1) Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lazio region, a surge in emergency medical service (EMS) calls has been observed. The objective of present study is to investigate if there is any correlation between the variation in numbers of daily EMS calls, and the short-term evolution of the epidemic wave. (2) Methods: Data from the COVID-19 outbreak has been retrieved in order to draw the epidemic curve in the Lazio region. Data from EMS calls has been used in order to determine Excess of Calls (ExCa) in the 2020-2021 years, compared to the year 2019 (baseline). Multiple linear regression models have been run between ExCa and the first-order derivative (D') of the epidemic wave in time, each regression model anticipating the epidemic progression (up to 14 days), in order to probe a correlation between the variables. (3) Results: EMS calls variation from baseline is correlated with the slope of the curve of ICU admissions, with the most fitting value found at 7 days (R2 0.33, p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: EMS calls deviation from baseline allows public health services to predict short-term epidemic trends in COVID-19 outbreaks, and can be used as validation of current data, or as an independent estimator of future trends.
(1) Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lazio region, a surge in emergency medical service (EMS) calls has been observed. The objective of present study is to investigate if there is any correlation between the variation in numbers of daily EMS calls, and the short-term evolution of the epidemic wave. (2) Methods: Data from the COVID-19 outbreak has been retrieved in order to draw the epidemic curve in the Lazio region. Data from EMS calls has been used in order to determine Excess of Calls (ExCa) in the 2020-2021 years, compared to the year 2019 (baseline). Multiple linear regression models have been run between ExCa and the first-order derivative (D') of the epidemic wave in time, each regression model anticipating the epidemic progression (up to 14 days), in order to probe a correlation between the variables. (3) Results: EMS calls variation from baseline is correlated with the slope of the curve of ICU admissions, with the most fitting value found at 7 days (R2 0.33, p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: EMS calls deviation from baseline allows public health services to predict short-term epidemic trends in COVID-19 outbreaks, and can be used as validation of current data, or as an independent estimator of future trends.
Entities:
Keywords:
COVID-19; emergency medical services; prediction models; public health; time series analysis
Authors: Racquel Jandoc; Andrea M Burden; Muhammad Mamdani; Linda E Lévesque; Suzanne M Cadarette Journal: J Clin Epidemiol Date: 2015-03-11 Impact factor: 6.437
Authors: Filomena Pietrantonio; Francesco Rosiello; Elena Alessi; Matteo Pascucci; Marianna Rainone; Enrica Cipriano; Alessandra Di Berardino; Antonio Vinci; Matteo Ruggeri; Serafino Ricci Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2021-06-03 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Maria Piane; Lavinia Bianco; Rita Mancini; Paolo Fornelli; Angela Gabriele; Francesco Medici; Claudia Battista; Stefania Greco; Giuseppe Croce; Laura Franceschetti; Christian Napoli; Mario Ronchetti; Paolo Anibaldi; Giorgio Banchieri Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-01-06 Impact factor: 4.614