| Literature DB >> 35598042 |
Ana Paula Pires Lázaro1,2, Polianna Lemos Moura Moreira Albuquerque1,3, Gdayllon Cavalcante Meneses4, Marza de Sousa Zaranza3,4, Ana Beatriz Batista3, Natalia Linhares Ponte Aragão3, Andrea Mazza Beliero3, Álvaro Rolim Guimarães5, Nilcyeli Linhares Aragão4, Alessandra Marjorye Maia Leitão1, Marcelo Costa Freire de Carvalho1, Maria Isabel de Alencar Cavalcante1, Fabio Augusto Xerez Mota1, Elizabeth De Francesco Daher4, Alice Maria Costa Martins6, Geraldo Bezerra da Silva Junior1,2,7.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 is a reliable score to predict mortality. This study aims to investigate the predictive values of SAPS 3 and other clinical parameters for death in critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Simplified Acute Physiology Score; intensive care units; mortality
Year: 2022 PMID: 35598042 PMCID: PMC9129229 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trac046
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg ISSN: 0035-9203 Impact factor: 2.455
Figure 1.Flowchart of critically ill COVID-19 patients included in the study from each wave.
Critically ill COVID-19 patients’ characteristics, support interventions, SAPS 3 score and outcome in the first and second waves
| Characteristics | First wave(n=290) | Second wave(n=477) | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years), mean±SD | 59.8 ± 15.2 | 57.1 ± 14.9 | 0.015 |
| Age groups (years), n (%) | 0.206 | ||
| 18–40 | 35 (12.1) | 74 (15.5) | |
| 41–60 | 112 (38.6) | 196 (41.1) | |
| >60 | 143 (49.3) | 207 (43.4) | |
| Gender, n (%) | 0.309 | ||
| Male | 175 (60.3) | 270 (56.6) | |
| Female | 115 (39.7) | 207 (43.4) | |
| Comorbidities, n (%) | |||
| Non-dialysis CKD | 31 (13.1) | 11 (2.8) | <0.001 |
| CKD on dialysis | 4 (1.7) | 7 (1.8) | 0.873 |
| Severe COPD | 8 (3.4) | 9 (2.3) | 0.472 |
| Arterial hypertension | 153 (64.8) | 232 (59.2) | 0.198 |
| Diabetes | 91 (38.6) | 119 (31.8) | 0.088 |
| Morbid obesity | 56 (23.7) | 132 (33.7) | 0.016 |
| Support interventions in the ICU, n (%) | |||
| Mechanical ventilation | 233 (80.6) | 332 (67.2) | <0.001 |
| Non-invasive ventilation | 2 (0.7) | 126 (25.5) | <0.001 |
| Vasopressors | 197 (68.2) | 197 (39.9) | <0.001 |
| RRT | 102 (35.3) | 83 (16.8) | <0.001 |
| Vital signs and kidney and pulmonary aspects on ICU admission | |||
| Lowest systolic blood pressure (mmHg), mean±SD | 89.2±8.5 | 100.6±23.7 | <0.001 |
| Lowest diastolic blood pressure (mmHg), mean±SD | 52.8±9.4 | 56.7±16.6 | <0.001 |
| Lowest mean arterial pressure (mmHg), mean±SD | 64.8±8.6 | 71.3±18.4 | <0.001 |
| Highest respiratory rate (breaths/min), mean±SD | 33.5±2.7 | 29.1±4.3 | <0.001 |
| Highest creatinine level (mg/dL), median (IQR) | 1.6 (0.9–2.5) | 0.9 (0.7–2.1) | <0.001 |
| Lowest oxygenation index, median (IQR) | 39 (25–73) | 59 (34–93) | <0.001 |
| Urea (mg/dL), median (IQR) | 80 (45–130) | 64 (39–112) | 0.092 |
| SAPS 3 score, median (IQR) | 70 (55–78) | 59 (49–70) | <0.001 |
| Intensive care unit stay (days), median (IQR) | 11 (6–18) | 11 (7–18) | 0.941 |
| Outcome, n (%) | 0.112 | ||
| Survivors | 133 (45.9) | 247 (51.8) | |
| Non-survivors | 157 (54.1) | 230 (48.2) |
Demographic parameters, SAPS 3 score and outcome of critically ill COVID-19 patients in the first and second waves according to outcome
| First wave (n=290) | Second wave (n=477) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristics | Survivors (n=133) | Non-survivors (n=157) | p-Value | Survivors (n=247) | Non-survivors (n=230) | p-Value |
| Age (years), mean±SD | 55.2±14.1 | 63.7±15 | <0.001 | 53.5±14.5 | 60.8±14.4 | <0.001 |
| Age groups (years), n (%) | 0.001 | <0.001 | ||||
| 18–40 | 23 (17.3) | 12 (7.6) | 52 (21.1) | 22 (9.6) | ||
| 41–60 | 60 (45.1) | 52 (33.1) | 115 (46.6) | 81 (35.2) | ||
| >60 | 50 (37.6) | 93 (59.2) | 80 (32.4) | 127 (55.2) | ||
| Gender, n (%) | 0.762 | 0.738 | ||||
| Male | 79 (59.4) | 96 (61.1) | 138 (55.9) | 132 (57.4) | ||
| Female | 54 (40.6) | 61 (38.9) | 109 (44.1) | 98 (42.6) | ||
| Comorbidities, n (%) | ||||||
| Non-dialysis CKD | 8 (7.7) | 23 (17.4) | 0.028 | 3 (1.7) | 8 (4.1) | 0.155 |
| CKD on dialysis | 3 (2.9) | 1 (0.8) | 0.323 | 3 (1.7) | 4 (2.1) | 1.000 |
| Severe COPD | 6 (5.8) | 2 (1.5) | 0.143 | 3 (1.7) | 6 (3.1) | 0.505 |
| Arterial hypertension | 65 (62.5) | 88 (66.7) | 0.506 | 104 (57.5) | 119 (61.7) | 0.461 |
| Diabetes | 42 (40.4) | 49 (37.1) | 0.609 | 50 (27.6) | 69 (35.8) | 0.092 |
| Morbid obesity | 29 (27.9) | 27 (20.5) | 0.183 | 66 (36.5) | 57 (29.5) | 0.154 |
| Support interventions, n (%) | ||||||
| Mechanical ventilation | 78 (59.1) | 155 (98.7) | <0.001 | 122 (49.4) | 200 (87.3) | <0.001 |
| Non-invasive ventilation | 2 (1.5) | 0 (0) | 0.208 | 82 (33.2) | 36 (15.7) | <0.001 |
| Vasopressors | 52 (39.4) | 145 (92.4) | <0.001 | 54 (21.9) | 141 (61.6) | <0.001 |
| RRT | 13 (9.8) | 89 (56.7) | <0.001 | 20 (8.1) | 63 (27.5) | <0.001 |
| Vital signs and kidney and pulmonary aspects on ICU admission | ||||||
| Lowest systolic blood pressure (mmHg), mean±SD | 92.7±7 | 86.2±8.6 | <0.001 | 104.5±24.5 | 97.8±23 | 0.003 |
| Lowest diastolic blood pressure (mmHg), mean±SD | 57.4± .4 | 48.9±9.1 | <0.001 | 60.4±17.2 | 53.9±15.7 | <0.001 |
| Highest respiratory rate (breaths/min), mean±SD | 33.1±2.9 | 33.8±2.6 | 0.026 | 28.5±4.7 | 29.5±4.1 | <0.001 |
| Highest creatinine level (mg/dL), median (IQR) | 1 (0.8–1.8) | 2 (1.4–3) | <0.001 | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 1.4 (0.75–3) | <0.001 |
| Lowest oxygenation index, median (IQR) | 27.7 (21.9–50.7) | 59.2 (30.9–95.2) | <0.001 | 45.3 (30.1–79.0) | 72.1 (41.0–104.2) | <0.001 |
| Urea (mg/dL), median (IQR) | 46.5 (37– 85) | 106 (68–146) | <0.001 | 46 (34–73.5) | 90 (60–144) | <0.001 |
| Intensive care unit length of stay (days), median (IQR) | 11 (11–17) | 11 (11–18) | 0.873 | 12 (12–17) | 11 (1– 18) | 0.535 |
| SAPS 3 score, median (IQR) | 54 (54–65) | 76 (76–84) | <0.001 | 52 (52–60) | 68.5 (68.5–75) | <0.001 |
Logistic regression to evaluate an independent association between SAPS 3 score and other clinical parameters analysed in the first 24 h of ICU admission
| Death | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | OR | 95% CI | p-Value |
| First wave | |||
| Model 1 (SAPS 3, admission data and support interventions) | |||
| SAPS 3 score | 1.153 | 1.095 to 1.213 | <0.001 |
| Lowest oxygenation index | 1.016 | 1.001 to 1.03 | 0.038 |
| RRT | 4.632 | 1.733 to 12.384 | 0.002 |
| Model 2 (SAPS 3 and admission data, without support interventions) | |||
| SAPS 3 score | 1.156 | 1.098 to 1.216 | <0.001 |
| Urea level | 1.01 | 1.002 to 1.018 | 0.013 |
| Lowest oxygenation index | 1.018 | 1.003 to 1.033 | 0.016 |
| Second wave | |||
| Model 1 (SAPS 3, admission data and support interventions) | |||
| SAPS 3 score | 1.111 | 1.063 to 1.162 | <0.001 |
| Urea level | 1.005 | 0.997 to 1.012 | 0.200 |
| Lowest oxygenation index | 1.008 | 0.999 to 1.017 | 0.085 |
| Mechanical ventilation | 2.356 | 1.062 to 5.226 | 0.035 |
| Model 2 (SAPS 3 and admission data, without support interventions) | |||
| SAPS 3 score | 1.133 | 1087 to 1.182 | <0.001 |
| Lowest oxygenation index | 1.008 | 1.000 to 1.017 | 0.064 |
| Urea level | 1.006 | 0.998 to 1.013 | 0.135 |
The stepwise forward method was applied to models that had variables with a significance of p≤0.2.
Performance of SAPS 3 and selected models with powerful variables that predicted death in critically ill patients due to COVID-19 in the first and second waves
| ROC for death | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | AUC | 95% CI | p-Value |
| First wave | |||
| SAPS 3 | 0.897 | 0.858 to 0.936 | <0.001 |
| SAPS 3, urea level, lowest oxygenation index | 0.901 | 0.863 to 0.939 | <0.001 |
| SAPS 3, urea level, lowest oxygenation index, RRT | 0.912 | 0.877 to 0.946 | <0.001 |
| Second wave | |||
| SAPS 3 | 0.810 | 0.771 to 0.848 | <0.001 |
| SAPS 3, urea, lowest oxygenation index | 0.816 | 0.777 to 0.854 | <0.001 |
| SAPS 3, urea, lowest oxygenation index, mechanical ventilation | 0.827 | 0.790 to 0.864 | <0.001 |
Figure 2.Comparisons between ROC curves for death in the first wave using only SAPS 3 (blue line), model 1 (green line) and model 2 (yellow line). Model 1: SAPS 3 with urea level and lowest oxygenation index. Model 2: SAPS 3, urea level, lowest oxygenation index and RRT.
Figure 3.Comparisons between ROC curves for death in the second wave using only SAPS 3 (blue line), model 1 (green line) and model 2 (yellow line). Model 1: SAPS 3 with urea level and lowest oxygenation index. Model 2: SAPS 3, urea level, lowest oxygenation index and mechanical ventilation.