The changing epidemiology of lumpy skin disease in Russia since the first introduction from 2015 to 2020.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an economically important transboundary disease affecting cattle, causing large economic losses such as decreased production and trade restrictions. LSD has been a historically neglected disease since it previously caused disease limited to the African continent. Currently, the epidemiology of LSD virus is based on how the disease is transmitted in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The understanding of its epidemiology in hemiboreal climates is not well understood and needs urgent attention to expand the current knowledge. In this study, the epidemiological findings on LSD in Russia over a 6-year period are summarized and discussed. A total of 471 outbreaks were identified spanning over a 9000 km range. The outbreaks of LSD occur primarily in small holder farms (backyard) compared to commercial farms between mid-May through mid-November including weather conditions with snow and freezing temperatures that preclude vector activity. Mortality and morbidity varied across the 6 years ranging from 1.19% to 61.8% and 0% to 50%, respectively, with a tendency to decline from 2015 to 2020. The geographic pattern of spread was assessed by means of directionality, indicating a northward movement from 2015 to 2016, with a consequent East turn in 2017 through Siberia to the Far East by 2020. All cases occurred along the border with Kazakhstan. Mathematical modelling showed that the disease tended to form statistically verified annual spatiotemporal clusters in 2016-2018, whereas in 2019 and 2020 such segregation was not evident. The trend of spread was mainly either from south to north or from south to a north-east direction.