Nicolas A Barticevic1, Fernando Poblete2, Laura Bradshaw3, Marcus Bendtsen4. 1. Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, 8331150, Santiago, PO, Chile. 2. Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, 8331150, Santiago, PO, Chile. fcpoblete@gmail.com. 3. Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, 8331150, Santiago, PO, Chile. 4. Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To reanalyze a clinical trial on the effectiveness of a Brief Intervention (BI) delivered by non-professionals to reduce risky alcohol drinking. Our previous null-hypothesis test of the effects of the BI yielded a 'non-significant' p-value, yet remained uninformative. Here we use the Bayesian paradigm which allows for expressing the probability of different effect sizes to better inform public policy decisions. RESULTS: The posterior probability of the odds of risky drinking at follow-up favored a marked effect of the BI, with 96% of the probability mass being less than OR = 1, and 84% being less than OR = 0.8. Our findings show that there is a high probability that the BI delivered by health technicians lowered risky alcohol use. The posterior distributions of the BI's effects are presented to help contextualize the evidence for policy making in Chile.
OBJECTIVE: To reanalyze a clinical trial on the effectiveness of a Brief Intervention (BI) delivered by non-professionals to reduce risky alcohol drinking. Our previous null-hypothesis test of the effects of the BI yielded a 'non-significant' p-value, yet remained uninformative. Here we use the Bayesian paradigm which allows for expressing the probability of different effect sizes to better inform public policy decisions. RESULTS: The posterior probability of the odds of risky drinking at follow-up favored a marked effect of the BI, with 96% of the probability mass being less than OR = 1, and 84% being less than OR = 0.8. Our findings show that there is a high probability that the BI delivered by health technicians lowered risky alcohol use. The posterior distributions of the BI's effects are presented to help contextualize the evidence for policy making in Chile.
Authors: Duminda N Wijeysundera; Peter C Austin; Janet E Hux; W Scott Beattie; Andreas Laupacis Journal: J Clin Epidemiol Date: 2008-10-23 Impact factor: 6.437
Authors: Nicolas A Barticevic; Fernando Poblete; Soledad M Zuzulich; Victoria Rodriguez; Diego Quevedo; Brena F Sena; Laura Bradshaw Journal: Addict Sci Clin Pract Date: 2021-06-15
Authors: Eileen Fs Kaner; Fiona R Beyer; Colin Muirhead; Fiona Campbell; Elizabeth D Pienaar; Nicolas Bertholet; Jean B Daeppen; John B Saunders; Bernard Burnand Journal: Cochrane Database Syst Rev Date: 2018-02-24