| Literature DB >> 35535617 |
Keon-Joo Lee1,2, Beom Joon Kim1, Moon-Ku Han1, Joon-Tae Kim3, Kang-Ho Choi3, Dong-Ick Shin4, Jae-Kwan Cha5, Dae-Hyun Kim5, Dong-Eog Kim6, Wi-Sun Ryu6,7, Jong-Moo Park8, Kyusik Kang9, Soo Joo Lee10, Jae Guk Kim10, Mi-Sun Oh11, Kyung-Ho Yu11, Byung-Chul Lee11, Keun-Sik Hong12, Yong-Jin Cho12, Jay Chol Choi13, Tai Hwan Park14, Sang-Soon Park14, Kyung Bok Lee15, Jee-Hyun Kwon16, Wook-Joo Kim16, Sung Il Sohn17, Jeong-Ho Hong17, Jun Lee18, Ji Sung Lee19, Juneyoung Lee20, Philip B Gorelick21, Hee-Joon Bae1.
Abstract
Background Previous literature about the effect of heart rate on poststroke outcomes is limited. We attempted to elucidate (1) whether heart rate during the acute period of ischemic stroke predicts subsequent major clinical events, (2) which heart rate parameter is best for prediction, and (3) what is the estimated heart rate cutoff point for the primary outcome. Methods and Results Eight thousand thirty-one patients with acute ischemic stroke who were hospitalized within 48 hours of onset were analyzed retrospectively. Heart rates between the 4th and 7th day after onset were collected and heart rate parameters including mean, time-weighted average, maximum, and minimum heart rate were evaluated. The primary outcome was the composite of recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality up to 1 year after stroke onset. All heart rate parameters were associated with the primary outcome (P's<0.001). Maximum heart rate had the highest predictive power. The estimated cutoff point for the primary outcome was 81 beats per minute for mean heart rate and 100 beats per minute for maximum heart rate. Patients with heart rates above these cutoff points had a higher risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.57-2.06] for maximum heart rate and 1.65 [95% CI, 1.45-1.89] for mean heart rate). The associations were replicated in a separate validation dataset (N=10 000). Conclusions These findings suggest that heart rate during the acute period of ischemic stroke is a predictor of major clinical events, and optimal heart rate control might be a target for preventing subsequent cardiovascular events.Entities:
Keywords: acute ischemic stroke; cohort study; heart rate; prognosis
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35535617 PMCID: PMC9238577 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.122.025861
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 6.106
Patients’ Baseline Characteristics: Comparison Between Main Dataset and Validation Dataset
| Variables | Main dataset (N=8031) | Validation dataset (N=10 000) |
|---|---|---|
| Age, y | 68.1±13.0 | 68.4±12.9 |
| Male sex | 4703 (58.6) | 5946 (59.5) |
| Hypertension | 5631 (70.1) | 6310 (63.1) |
| Diabetes | 2603 (32.4) | 3043 (30.4) |
| Dyslipidemia | 2482 (30.9) | 2544 (25.4) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 1966 (24.5) | 2250 (22.5) |
| Previous stroke or TIA | 1791 (22.3) | 2077 (20.8) |
| Current smoking | 2050 (25.5) | 2291 (22.9) |
| Coronary heart disease | 720 (9.0) | 922 (9.2) |
| Heart failure | 171 (2.1) | 178 (1.8) |
| Premorbid mRS | ||
| 0 | 6006 (74.8) | 8242 (82.4) |
| 1 | 589 (7.3) | 616 (6.2) |
| 2 | 463 (5.8) | 464 (4.6) |
| 3 | 491 (6.1) | 395 (3.9) |
| 4 | 264 (3.3) | 211 (2.1) |
| 5 | 218 (2.7) | 73 (0.7) |
| Onset to arrival time | 5 (2–17) | 5 (2–17) |
| Initial NIHSS score | 4 (2–11) | 4 (2–9) |
| Hyperacute treatment | ||
| Intravenous thrombolysis | 1378 (17.2) | 1642 (16.4) |
| Endovascular thrombectomy | 788 (9.8) | 1101 (11.0) |
| Stroke subtype | ||
| Large artery atherosclerosis | 2765 (34.4) | 3369 (33.7) |
| Small vessel occlusion | 1367 (17.0) | 1724 (17.2) |
| Cardioembolism | 2101 (26.2) | 2364 (23.6) |
| Other‐determined | 218 (2.7) | 368 (3.7) |
| Undetermined | 1580 (19.7) | 2175 (21.8) |
| Symptomatic steno‐occlusion of relevant artery | 4094 (51.0) | 4701 (47.0) |
| Discharge antiplatelet | 6111 (76.1) | 7435 (74.4) |
| Discharge anticoagulant | 1798 (22.4) | 1974 (19.7) |
| Discharge statin | 6711 (83.6) | 8708 (87.1) |
| Initial SBP, mm Hg | 149.4±27.8 | 148.4±27.7 |
| Mean SBP during 3rd to 7th day after onset, mm Hg | 134.0±14.7 | 135.9±15.6 |
| Initial glucose, mg/dL | 142.7±61.2 | 145.8±60.6 |
Values are number of patients (%), mean±SD, or median (interquartile range) unless otherwise indicated. mRS indicates modified Rankin’s scale; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; SBP, systolic blood pressure; and TIA, transient ischemic attack.
Figure 1Survival curve of primary and secondary outcomes by mean heart rate deciles.
A, Composite of stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction, and all‐cause mortality. B, All‐cause mortality. C, Stroke recurrence. D, Composite of stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction, and vascular death.
Figure 2Association between heart rate parameters and outcomes.
A, Composite of stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction, and all‐cause mortality. B, All‐cause mortality. C, Stroke recurrence. D, Composite of stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction, and vascular death.
Comparison of the Predictive Power for Primary Outcome and All‐Cause Mortality Between Heart Rate Parameters
| Composite of stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction, and all‐cause mortality | All‐cause mortality | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIC | BIC | Harrell’s C index |
| AIC | BIC | Harrell’s C index |
| |
| Model 0 | 18 571.48 | 18 706.83 | 0.7639 | <0.001 | 14 089.51 | 14 218.35 | 0.8302 | <0.001 |
| Model 1 | 18 468.39 | 18 618.78 | 0.7740 | 0.213 | 13 958.29 | 14 101.45 | 0.8433 | 0.062 |
| Model 2 | 18 460.64 | 18 611.03 | 0.7748 | 0.504 | 13 950.16 | 14 093.32 | 0.8441 | 0.164 |
| Model 3 | 18 469.49 | 18 619.88 | 0.7758 | Ref | 13 946.48 | 14 089.64 | 0.8464 | Ref |
| Model 4 | 18 506.46 | 18 656.86 | 0.7693 | 0.002 | 14 013.48 | 14 156.64 | 0.8364 | <.001 |
AIC indicates Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayes Information Criterion; and SBP, systolic blood pressure.
Model 0: predetermined covariates only; Model 1: Model 0+mean heart rate; Model 2: Model 0+time‐weighted average heart rate; Model 3: Model 0+maximum heart rate; Model 4: Model 0+minimum heart rate.
Predetermined covariates included admitted hospital, age, sex, time from symptom onset to hospital arrival, initial stroke severity, history of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease, heart failure, previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, premorbid modified Rankin’s scale, current smoking, whether the patient received recanalization therapy (intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular treatment), antithrombotic (antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulants) and statin administration at discharge, symptomatic steno‐occlusion of the intra‐ or extracranial major cerebral arteries, initial SBP, mean value of SBP between the 4th and 7th days after symptom onset, initial glucose level, and ischemic stroke subtype.
Heart Rate Cutoff and HR of Primary Outcome and All‐Cause Mortality
| Heart rate cutoff by Contal and O’Quigley Method (beats per minute) | Main dataset | Validation dataset | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted HR |
|
Adjusted HR (95% CI) |
| ||
| Composite of stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction, and all‐cause mortality | |||||
| Mean heart rate | >81 | 1.65 (1.45–1.89) | <0.0001 | 1.50 (1.31–1.73) | <0.0001 |
| Time‐weighted average heart rate | >81 | 1.67 (1.46–1.91) | <0.0001 | 1.54 (1.34–1.77) | <0.0001 |
| Maximum heart rate | >100 | 1.80 (1.57–2.06) | <0.0001 | 1.69 (1.46–1.95) | <0.0001 |
| Minimum heart rate | >65 | 1.36 (1.20–1.54) | <0.0001 | 1.23 (1.08–1.40) | 0.0020 |
| All‐cause mortality | |||||
| Mean heart rate | >81 | 1.88 (1.62–2.17) | <0.0001 | 1.70 (1.45–1.98) | <0.0001 |
| Time‐weighted average heart rate | >80 | 1.89 (1.63–2.19) | <0.0001 | 1.65 (1.41–1.93) | <0.0001 |
| Maximum heart rate | >100 | 2.15 (1.84–2.51) | <0.0001 | 1.84 (1.57–2.17) | <0.0001 |
| Minimum heart rate | >69 | 1.68 (1.45–1.95) | <0.0001 | 1.22 (1.04–1.44) | 0.0156 |
Predetermined covariates included age, sex, time from symptom onset to hospital arrival, initial stroke severity, history of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease, heart failure, previous history of stroke or transient ischemia attack, premorbid modified Rankin’s scale, current smoking, whether the patient received recanalization therapy (intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular treatment), antithrombotic (antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulants) and statin administration at discharge, symptomatic steno‐occlusion of the intra‐ or extracranial major cerebral arteries, initial SBP, mean value of SBP between the 4th and 7th days after symptom onset, initial glucose level, and ischemic stroke subtype. HR indicates hazard ratio; and SBP, systolic blood pressure.
Derived from multivariable Cox‐frailty model.