Identifying ecological security patterns based on the supply, demand and sensitivity of ecosystem service: A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China.

Ecological security is the basis for ecosystems to provide various ecosystem services (ESs) to humans. Identifying ecological security patterns (ESPs) is an effective approach to determine the priority conservation areas and ensure regional ecological security. However, most previous studies on ESPs were based mainly on the supply of ESs, while the demand and sensitivity of ESs were not fully considered. In this study, a comprehensive ESP identification framework was developed by integrating the supply, demand and sensitivity of ESs with the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making and circuit theory. Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as a case study, our results show that the ecological sources (139,633 km2 or 17.3%) of the YRB were located mainly in the transition area between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Loess Plateau, and in the Qinling Mountains and eastern plains; these areas reliably exhibited high conservation efficiency and low decision-making risk and tradeoff levels. However, the northern and western YRB had few ecological sources due to mismatches among the supply, demand and sensitivity of ESs. Based on circuit theory, ecological corridors (36,905 m and 76,878 km2) effectively connected the western, southern and eastern parts of the YRB. These ecological sources and corridors were both dominated by grassland, forest and cropland. However, ten pinch points, primarily covered by cropland, were also recognized in the eastern YRB and should be considered as priority areas for ecological conservation. Moreover, our results indicate that this comprehensive ESP identification framework could provide useful guidance to decision-makers for maintaining ESs and ecological conservation.