Identifying the spatial heterogeneity in the effects of the construction land scale on carbon emissions: Case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China.

Low-carbon emissions are a major research focus to solve the problem of global warming and an important area that China needs to focus on to achieve high-quality development. Construction land scale is a non-negligible factor affecting carbon emissions. However, carbon emission impacts of county-scale spatial heterogeneity in construction land scale are under addressed in contemporary research. To address this gap, this paper took 1042 counties in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and developed datasets of the influencing factors including the construction land scale, GDP, secondary industry output proportion in GDP, residential population, and fixed asset investment. After comparing the ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, we applied GWR for more in-depth analyses. The global regression model results showed that the effect of the scale of construction land on carbon emissions was exceedingly significant and that the directions of the impacts coincided with the predictions. Further, local regression model results showed that construction land scale had significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact on carbon emissions and most counties (69.58%) showed significant positive correlations. The counties with significant construction land scale impacts on carbon emissions were concentrated and contiguous in spatial distribution and spatially clustered areas varied, with the clearest impact in the downstream region. The findings help to further identify the spatial heterogeneity of construction land scale impacts on carbon emissions, which provides evidence-based and theoretical support for policymakers to develop spatially differentiated emission reduction measures.