Linear regression analysis of ultrasound follicular growth series: statistical relationship of growth rate and calculated date of growth onset to total growth period.

Linear regression analysis was used to assess the serial growth of carefully measured individual mean follicular diameters as a function of menstrual age in a group of normal volunteers in natural, unstimulated cycles (n = 18). Follicle diameter (FD) growth, as measured with serial pelvic ultrasonography, can be shown to be essentially linear (mean R2, 0.92) with respect to time up to the point of ovulation. Growth rate (k) and the calculated date of growth onset (Do) are obtainable from the individual regression equations. Because an approximation of the date of ovulation (Dov, measured by menstrual age at the date of peak mean follicular size) is an available parameter, total growth period (TGP) is calculated with the equation (TGP = Dov - Do). Do, k, and TGP are highly correlated with one another. The mean parameters (+/- standard deviation) are Do = 4.29 +/- 2.77 day, k = 0.24 +/- 0.07 cm/day, TGP = 10.32 +/- 2.35 day, peak FD = 2.34 +/- 0.28 cm, and Dov = 14.61 +/- 2.00 day. The internal correlation of these parameters predicts that information from the first several scans in an individual series may be used to forecast date of ovulation. This may represent an improvement over the use of follicle size or menstrual age alone in planning for human chorionic gonadotropin administration, insemination timing, follicular aspiration and other interventions.