| Literature DB >> 35432153 |
Ya-Ming Li1, Li Zhao1, Yue-Guang Liu1, Yang Lu1, Jing-Zhu Yao1, Chun-Ju Li1, Wei Lu1, Jian-Hua Xu1.
Abstract
Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a common cause of disability or death. Although the researches on SAP have been relatively mature, the method that can predict SAP with great accuracy has not yet been determined. It is necessary to discover new predictors to construct a more accurate predictive model for SAP. We continuously collected 2,366 patients with acute ischemic stroke, and then divided them into the SAP group and non-SAP group. Data were recorded at admission. Through univariate analyses and multivariate regression analyses of the data, the new predictive factors and the predictive model of SAP were determined. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) were used to measure their predictive accuracy. Of the 2,366 patients, 459 were diagnosed with SAP. International normalized ratio (INR) (odds ratio = 37.981; 95% confidence interval, 7.487-192.665; P < 0.001), age and dysphagia were independent risk factors of SAP. However, walking ability within 48 h of admission (WA) (odds ratio = 0.395; 95% confidence interval, 0.287-0.543; P < 0.001) was a protective factor of SAP. Different predictors and the predictive model all could predict SAP (P < 0.001). The predictive power of the model (AUC: 0.851) which included age, homocysteine, INR, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), dysphagia, and WA was greater than that of age (AUC: 0.738) and INR (AUC: 0.685). Finally, we found that a higher INR and no WA could predict SAP in patients with acute ischemic stroke. In addition, we designed a simple and practical predictive model for SAP, which showed relatively good accuracy. These findings might help identify high-risk patients with SAP and provide a reference for the timely use of preventive antibiotics.Entities:
Keywords: infection; international normalized ratio; pneumonia; stroke; walking ability
Year: 2022 PMID: 35432153 PMCID: PMC9007082 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2022.857420
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Neurol ISSN: 1664-2295 Impact factor: 4.003
Figure 1The flow of patients. SAP, stroke-associated pneumonia.
Baseline characteristics of patients with SAP and non-SAP with acute ischemic stroke.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Sex, male (%) | 1273 (66.8) | 260 (56.6) | <0.001 |
| Age, y [IQR] | 69 [59–78] | 82 [73–86] | <0.001 |
| History | |||
| Hypertension (%) | 1385 (72.6) | 346 (75.4) | 0.232 |
| Diabetes mellitus (%) | 461 (24.2) | 100 (21.8) | 0.280 |
| Atrial fibrillation or Cardiac valve disease (%) | 124 (6.5) | 78 (17.0) | <0.001 |
| COPD (%) | 30 (1.6) | 18 (3.9) | 0.001 |
| Cerebral infarction (%) | 364 (19.1) | 120 (26.1) | 0.001 |
| Alcoholism (%) | 366 (19.2) | 52 (11.3) | <0.001 |
| Current smoker (%) | 559 (29.3) | 80 (17.4) | <0.001 |
| Hyperlipidemia (%) | 17 (0.9) | 6 (1.3) | 0.582 |
| Intracerebral hemorrhage (%) | 37 (1.9) | 14 (3.1) | 0.142 |
| Myocardial infarction (%) | 16 (0.8) | 5 (1.1) | 0.813 |
| Assessment at admission | |||
| NIHSS score [IQR] | 2.0 [1.0–5.0] | 8.0 [3.0–15.0] | <0.001 |
| Dysphagia (%) | 95 (5.0) | 226 (49.2) | <0.001 |
| WA | 1345 (70.5) | 108 (23.5) | <0.001 |
| Intravenous thrombolysis (%) | 350 (18.4) | 88 (19.2) | 0.685 |
| Pre-stroke mRS score [IQR] | 1.0 [1.0–2.0] | 2.0 [1.0–2.0] | <0.001 |
| Laboratory indicators | |||
| Homocysteine (umol/L) [IQR] | 13.60 [11.00–18.00] | 16.50 [12.00–23.10] | <0.001 |
| INR [IQR] | 0.92 [0.88–0.97] | 0.97 [0.92–1.03] | <0.001 |
| Fasting glucose (m mol/L) [IQR] | 5.70 [5.02–7.10] | 6.14 [5.30–7.54] | <0.001 |
| Glycosylated hemoglobin (%) [IQR] | 5.90 [5.50–6.80] | 5.90 [5.50–6.60] | 0.613 |
| Low-density lipoprotein (m mol/L) [IQR] | 2.79 [2.20–3.41] | 2.62 [1.96–3.28] | <0.001 |
| Serum creatinine (umol/L) [IQR] | 72.00 [60.50–84.20] | 76.80 [64.00–93.00] | <0.001 |
| Serum urea (mmol/L) [IQR] | 5.00 [4.20–6.00] | 5.70 [4.50–7.40] | <0.001 |
| Serum uric acid (umol/L) [IQR] | 315.0 [254.0–382.0] | 320.0 [252.0–394.00] | 0.297 |
IQR, interquartile range; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; WA, walking ability within 48 h of admission; mRS, modified Rankin Scale; INR, international normalized ratio.
Having WA was defined as a patient who could walk a distance of more than 3 meters on flat ground independently or with partial assistance (needing guardrail support, assistance from others, using crutches).
Multivariate analysis of factors influencing SAP.
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| Age | 0.041 | 0.000 | 1.041 | 1.028–1.055 |
| Pre-stroke mRS score | 0.107 | 0.170 | 1.113 | 0.955–1.298 |
| NIHSS score | 0.003 | 0.835 | 1.003 | 0.977–1.029 |
| Fasting glucose | 0.037 | 0.142 | 1.037 | 0.988–1.090 |
| Low-density lipoprotein | 0.040 | 0.561 | 1.040 | 0.910–1.189 |
| Homocysteine | 0.010 | 0.090 | 1.010 | 0.998–1.022 |
| Serum creatinine | 0.001 | 0.800 | 1.001 | 0.995–1.006 |
| Serum urea | 0.041 | 0.259 | 1.041 | 0.971–1.117 |
| INR | 3.637 | 0.000 | 37.981 | 7.487–192.665 |
| COPD | 0.678 | 0.065 | 1.969 | 0.960–4.039 |
| Cerebral infarction | −0.036 | 0.819 | 0.965 | 0.711–1.310 |
| Atrial fibrillation or Cardiac valve disease | 0.037 | 0.855 | 1.038 | 0.696–1.548 |
| Sex | 0.154 | 0.321 | 1.166 | 0.861–1.579 |
| Current smoker | 0.076 | 0.695 | 1.079 | 0.738–1.578 |
| Dysphagia | 1.966 | 0.000 | 7.139 | 4.959–10.277 |
| WA | −0.929 | 0.000 | 0.395 | 0.287–0.543 |
| Alcoholism | −0.235 | 0.282 | 0.791 | 0.515–1.213 |
| Constant | −8.971 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
mRS, modified Rankin Scale; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; INR, international normalized ratio; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; WA, walking ability within 48 h of admission; B, regression coefficient; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Logistic regression model results.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 0.041 | 0.000 | 1.042 |
| Homocysteine | 0.011 | 0.038 | 1.011 |
| INR | 3.615 | 0.000 | 37.136 |
| COPD | 0.726 | 0.046 | 2.068 |
| Dysphagia | 2.052 | 0.000 | 7.783 |
| WA | −0.955 | 0.000 | 0.385 |
| Constant | −8.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
INR, international normalized ratio; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; WA, walking ability within 48 h of admission; B, regression coefficient; OR, odds ratio.
Variable assignments.
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|---|---|---|
| Age | X1 | – |
| Homocysteine | X2 | – |
| INR | X3 | – |
| COPD | X4 | 0 = “NO”, 1 = “Yes” |
| Dysphagia | X5 | 0 = “NO”, 1 = “Yes” |
| WA | X6 | 0 = “NO”, 1 = “Yes” |
INR, international normalized ratio; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; WA, walking ability within 48 h of admission.
Figure 2ROC curve of age. ROC, receiver-operating characteristic.
Figure 4ROC curve of the model. ROC, receiver-operating characteristic.
Predictive effects of different indicators on SAP.
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| Age | 0.738 | 0.713–0.763 | <0.001 |
| INR | 0.685 | 0.657–0.713 | <0.001 |
| Model | 0.851 | 0.831–0.872 | <0.001 |
INR, international normalized ratio; AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval.