| Literature DB >> 35431673 |
Yongjia Lin1, Yizhi Wang2, Xiaoqing Maggie Fu3.
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the effects of margin purchases and short sales on the return volatility in the Chinese stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak. We present two main findings. First, we show that stocks with higher level of margin-trading activity exhibit higher return volatility. The COVID-19 outbreak amplifies the destabilizing effects of margin-trading activity. Second, no evidence shows that short selling destabilizes the stock market in general. However, we observe that intensified short-selling activity is associated with lower return volatility when infection risk is high during the COVID-19 crisis.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19 outbreak; Chinese stock market; Margin purchases; Short sales; Volatility innovation
Year: 2021 PMID: 35431673 PMCID: PMC8994448 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102351
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Financ Res Lett ISSN: 1544-6131
Summary statistics
This table reports the summary statistics (mean, median, standard deviation (SD), and 20th (P20) and 80th (P80) percentiles) for the key variables. The entire sample covers from August 19, 2019 to August 18, 2020. The sample during the COVID-19 Outbreak covers from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020.
| Mean | Median | SD | P20 | P80 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: Full Sample | |||||
| 0.1222 | 0.1178 | 0.0547 | 0.0761 | 0.1626 | |
| 0.0025 | 0.0003 | 0.0067 | 0.0000 | 0.0032 | |
| Turnover | 0.0224 | 0.0125 | 0.0288 | 0.0049 | 0.0328 |
| Log(Market Value) | 16.3516 | 16.2066 | 0.9823 | 15.5306 | 17.1132 |
| -0.0683 | -0.2845 | 1.3467 | -1.0929 | 0.8514 | |
| Panel B: During the COVID-19 Outbreak | |||||
| 0.1224 | 0.1187 | 0.0524 | 0.0781 | 0.1618 | |
| 0.0024 | 0.0003 | 0.0061 | 0.0000 | 0.0032 | |
| Turnover | 0.0266 | 0.0152 | 0.0330 | 0.0060 | 0.0392 |
| Log(Market Value) | 16.3431 | 16.2058 | 0.9792 | 15.5274 | 17.0880 |
| 0.2687 | 0.0262 | 1.4285 | -0.8657 | 1.3230 | |
| Panel C: Outside of the COVID-19 Outbreak | |||||
| 0.1221 | 0.1174 | 0.0556 | 0.0753 | 0.1630 | |
| 0.0025 | 0.0003 | 0.0069 | 0.0000 | 0.0032 | |
| Turnover | 0.0208 | 0.0116 | 0.0269 | 0.0046 | 0.0304 |
| Log(Market Value) | 16.3549 | 16.2069 | 0.9835 | 15.5324 | 17.1231 |
| -0.2006 | -0.3893 | 1.2893 | -1.1698 | 0.6401 | |
The effects of margin-trading and short-selling turnovers on the stock return volatility
This table reports the results from two stage least squares regressions for panel data about the effects of margin trading and short selling on the stock return volatility. The dependent variable is the stock return volatility innovation, which is the difference between the observed volatility and the forecasted volatility based on the historical average. MTT is the margin-trading turnover. SST is the short-selling turnover. During is a dummy variable that equals to one from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020, and zero otherwise. IR is the infection risk, which is measured by the number of the COVID-19 daily confirmed cases. Turnover is daily trading volume scaled by the market value of tradable shares. Log(Market Value) is the logarithm of market value of shares outstanding. The sample covers from August 19, 2019 to August 18, 2020 in Columns (1) to (4), and from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020 in Columns (5) and (6). The numbers in parentheses are standard errors. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.413*** | 0.343*** | 0.322*** | ||||
| (0.048) | (0.056) | (0.116) | ||||
| -0.165 | 0.107 | -2.132** | ||||
| (0.383) | (0.430) | (0.975) | ||||
| 0.285** | ||||||
| (0.114) | ||||||
| -1.313 | ||||||
| (0.964) | ||||||
| 0.084* | ||||||
| (0.049) | ||||||
| -2.124*** | ||||||
| (0.627) | ||||||
| 0.341*** | 0.342*** | |||||
| (0.018) | (0.018) | |||||
| -0.075*** | -0.075*** | |||||
| (0.002) | (0.002) | |||||
| Turnover | 12.074*** | 12.074*** | 12.111*** | 12.115*** | 10.843*** | 10.827*** |
| (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.212) | (0.212) | |
| Log(Market Value) | 1.299*** | 1.299*** | 1.294*** | 1.295*** | 1.559*** | 1.559*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.048) | (0.048) | |
| Constant | -22.129*** | -22.129*** | -22.056*** | -22.066*** | -25.680*** | -25.682*** |
| (0.220) | (0.220) | (0.220) | (0.220) | (0.788) | (0.788) | |
| Month Fixed Effect | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Firm Fixed Effect | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Observations | 337,942 | 337,942 | 337,942 | 337,942 | 95,313 | 95,313 |
| R-squared | 0.220 | 0.220 | 0.221 | 0.221 | 0.119 | 0.119 |
Fig. 1The direct effect of margin purchases on stock return volatility.
Fig. 2The moderating effect of infection risk (margin purchases).
Fig. 3The moderating effect of infection risk (short sales).
The effects of margin-trading and short-selling turnovers on the stock return volatility – robustness checks
This table reports the results from two stage least squares regressions for panel data about the effects of margin trading and short selling on the stock return volatility. The dependent variable is the stock return volatility innovation, which is the difference between the observed volatility and the forecasted volatility based on the simple regression. MTT is the margin-trading turnover. SST is the short-selling turnover. During is a dummy variable that equals to one from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020, and zero otherwise. IR is the infection risk, which is measured by the number of the COVID-19 daily confirmed cases. Turnover is daily trading volume scaled by the market value of tradable shares. Log(Market Value) is the logarithm of market value of shares outstanding. The sample covers from August 19, 2019 to August 18, 2020 in Columns (1) to (4), and from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020 in Columns (5) to (6). The numbers in parentheses are standard errors. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.923*** | 0.719*** | 0.651*** | ||||
| (0.083) | (0.096) | (0.202) | ||||
| 0.012 | 0.278 | -3.293* | ||||
| (0.661) | (0.742) | (1.694) | ||||
| 0.835*** | ||||||
| (0.197) | ||||||
| -1.266 | ||||||
| (1.662) | ||||||
| 0.182** | ||||||
| (0.086) | ||||||
| -2.628** | ||||||
| (1.090) | ||||||
| 0.638*** | 0.638*** | |||||
| (0.030) | (0.030) | |||||
| -0.141*** | -0.141*** | |||||
| (0.004) | (0.004) | |||||
| Turnover | 31.957*** | 31.957*** | 32.023*** | 32.033*** | 27.671*** | 27.652*** |
| (0.174) | (0.174) | (0.173) | (0.174) | (0.368) | (0.368) | |
| Log(Market Value) | 1.362*** | 1.362*** | 1.353*** | 1.354*** | 2.144*** | 2.145*** |
| (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.084) | (0.084) | |
| Constant | -20.106*** | -20.106*** | -19.959*** | -19.986*** | -31.595*** | -31.610*** |
| (0.379) | (0.379) | (0.379) | (0.379) | (1.368) | (1.368) | |
| Month Fixed Effect | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Firm Fixed Effect | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Observations | 337,942 | 337,942 | 337,942 | 337,942 | 95,313 | 95,313 |
| R-squared | 0.278 | 0.277 | 0.279 | 0.278 | 0.176 | 0.176 |
The effects of margin-trading and short-selling statuses on the stock return volatility
This table reports the results from a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach for panel data about the effects of margin-trading and short-selling statuses on the stock return volatility. The dependent variable is the stock return volatility innovation, which is the difference between the observed volatility and the forecasted volatility based on the historical average. D is a dummy variable that equals to one for firm i if its margin-trading turnover is ranked in the top quintile for each trading day t, and zero otherwise. D is a dummy variable that equals to one for firm i if its short-selling turnover is ranked in the top quintile for each trading day t, and zero otherwise. During is a dummy variable that equals to one from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020, and zero otherwise. D is a dummy variable that equals to one if the COVID-19 daily confirmed cases is higher than the median value over the sample period. Turnover is daily trading volume scaled by the market value of tradable shares. Log(Market Value) is the logarithm of market value of shares outstanding. The sample covers from August 19, 2019 to August 18, 2020 in Columns (1) to (4), and from January 11, 2020 to April 29, 2020 in Columns (5) to (6). The numbers in parentheses are standard errors. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.058*** | 0.035*** | -0.014 | ||||
| (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.015) | ||||
| 0.004 | 0.010 | 0.002 | ||||
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.014) | ||||
| 0.084*** | ||||||
| (0.011) | ||||||
| -0.021** | ||||||
| (0.011) | ||||||
| 0.158*** | ||||||
| (0.019) | ||||||
| -0.095*** | ||||||
| (0.020) | ||||||
| 0.312*** | 0.345*** | |||||
| (0.018) | (0.018) | |||||
| -0.065*** | 0.002 | |||||
| (0.012) | (0.013) | |||||
| Turnover | 12.027*** | 12.076*** | 12.045*** | 12.117*** | 10.870*** | 10.931*** |
| (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.213) | (0.213) | |
| Log(Market Value) | 1.299*** | 1.298*** | 1.291*** | 1.294*** | 1.666*** | 1.700*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.049) | (0.049) | |
| Constant | -22.140*** | -22.122*** | -22.014*** | -22.049*** | -27.418*** | -27.977*** |
| (0.220) | (0.220) | (0.220) | (0.220) | (0.794) | (0.792) | |
| Month Fixed Effect | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Firm Fixed Effect | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Observations | 337,942 | 337,942 | 337,942 | 337,942 | 95,313 | 95,313 |
| R-squared | 0.221 | 0.220 | 0.222 | 0.221 | 0.110 | 0.109 |