Florian E Buisman1, Daniele Giardiello2, Nancy E Kemeny3, Ewout W Steyerberg4, Diederik J Höppener1, Boris Galjart1, Pieter M H Nierop1, Vinod P Balachandran5, Andrea Cercek3, Jeffrey A Drebin5, Mithat Gönen6, William R Jarnagin5, T P Kingham5, Peter B Vermeulen7, Alice C Wei5, Dirk J Grünhagen1, Cornelis Verhoef1, Micheal I D'Angelica5, Bas Groot Koerkamp8. 1. Department of Surgery, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 2. Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands; Department of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 3. Department Medical Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre, New York, USA. 4. Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, PO Box 20400, 3000 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 5. Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA. 6. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA. 7. Translational Cancer Research Unit (GZA Hospitals and University of Antwerp), Antwerp, Belgium. 8. Department of Surgery, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Electronic address: b.grootkoerkamp@erasmusmc.nl.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics. METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities. RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%. CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics. METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities. RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%. CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.
Authors: Bas Groot Koerkamp; Eran Sadot; Nancy E Kemeny; Mithat Gönen; Julie N Leal; Peter J Allen; Andrea Cercek; Ronald P DeMatteo; T Peter Kingham; William R Jarnagin; Michael I D'Angelica Journal: J Clin Oncol Date: 2017-04-20 Impact factor: 44.544
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Authors: Georgios Antonios Margonis; Neda Amini; Stefan Buettner; Yuhree Kim; Jaeyun Wang; Nikolaos Andreatos; Doris Wagner; Kazunari Sasaki; Andrea Beer; Carsten Kamphues; Daisuke Morioka; Inger Marie Løes; Katsunori Imai; Jin He; Timothy M Pawlik; Klaus Kaczirek; George Poultsides; Per Eystein Lønning; Richard Burkhart; Itaru Endo; Hideo Baba; Hans Joerg Mischinger; Federico N Aucejo; Martin E Kreis; Christopher L Wolfgang; Matthew J Weiss Journal: Ann Surg Date: 2021-06-01 Impact factor: 12.969
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Authors: Boris Galjart; Eric P van der Stok; Joost Rothbarth; Dirk J Grünhagen; Cornelis Verhoef Journal: Ann Surg Oncol Date: 2016-07-08 Impact factor: 5.344
Authors: Pieter M H Nierop; Boris Galjart; Diederik J Höppener; Eric P van der Stok; Robert R J Coebergh van den Braak; Peter B Vermeulen; Dirk J Grünhagen; Cornelis Verhoef Journal: Clin Exp Metastasis Date: 2019-03-06 Impact factor: 5.150
Authors: Gena P Kanas; Aliki Taylor; John N Primrose; Wendy J Langeberg; Michael A Kelsh; Fionna S Mowat; Dominik D Alexander; Michael A Choti; Graeme Poston Journal: Clin Epidemiol Date: 2012-11-07 Impact factor: 4.790
Authors: Diederik J Höppener; Jean-Luc P L Stook; Boris Galjart; Pieter M H Nierop; Iris D Nagtegaal; Peter B Vermeulen; Dirk J Grünhagen; Cornelis Verhoef; Michail Doukas Journal: BMC Cancer Date: 2022-08-22 Impact factor: 4.638