| Literature DB >> 35411782 |
Lan Gao1, Marj Moodie1, Ben Freedman2, Christina Lam3, Hans Tu4, Corey Swift3, Sze-Ho Ma5, Vincent C T Mok5, Yi Sui6, David Sharpe7, Darshan Ghia8, Jim Jannes9, Stephen Davis3, Xinfeng Liu10, Bernard Yan3.
Abstract
Background The effectiveness of a nurse-led in-hospital monitoring protocol with mobile ECG (iECG) was investigated for detecting atrial fibrillation in patients post-ischemic stroke or post-transient ischemic attack. The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of using iECG during the initial hospital stay compared with standard 24-hour Holter monitoring. Methods and Results A Markov microsimulation model was constructed to simulate the lifetime health outcomes and costs. The rate of atrial fibrillation detection in iECG and Holter monitoring during the in-hospital phase and characteristics of modeled population (ie, age, sex, CHA2DS2-VASc) were informed by patient-level data. Costs related to recurrent stroke, stroke management, medications (new oral anticoagulants), and rehabilitation were included. The cost-effectiveness analysis outcome was calculated as an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. As results, monitoring patients with iECG post-stroke during the index hospitalization was associated with marginally higher costs (A$31 196) and greater benefits (6.70 quality-adjusted life-years) compared with 24-hour Holter surveillance (A$31 095 and 6.66 quality-adjusted life-years) over a 20-year time horizon, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $3013/ quality-adjusted life-years. Monitoring patients with iECG also contributed to lower recurrence of stroke and stroke-related deaths (140 recurrent strokes and 20 deaths avoided per 10 000 patients). The probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested iECG is highly likely to be a cost-effective intervention (100% probability). Conclusions A nurse-led iECG monitoring protocol during the acute hospital stay was found to improve the rate of atrial fibrillation detection and contributed to slightly increased costs and improved health outcomes. Using iECG to monitor patients post-stroke during initial hospitalization is recommended to complement routine care.Entities:
Keywords: atrial fibrillation; cost‐effectiveness analysis; iECG monitoring; stroke
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35411782 PMCID: PMC9238470 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.121.022735
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 6.106
Figure 1Markov simulation model structure.
AF indicates atrial fibrillation; iECG, smartphone‐based handheld ECG device; mRS, modified Rankin Scale; NOAC, new oral anticoagulant; and TIA, transient ischemic attack.
Probabilities and Utility Weights for the Markov Model Parameters
| Variable | Base case | Range | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity of iECG | 0.97 | 0.92–1.00 | Lowers et al |
| Specificity of iECG | 0.92 | 0.89–0.93 | Lowers et al |
| Prevalence of AF after a stroke/TIA | 0.0876 | ||
| Proportion of patients experienced gastro bleeding with anticoangulant treatment (per yearly cycle) | 0.004 | … | Connolly et al 2011 |
| Proportion of patients experienced intracranial bleeding with anticoangulant treatment (per yearly cycle) | 0.006 | … | Connolly et al 2011 |
| Probability of diagnosing AF using iECG | 0.085 | 0.05–0.10 | Yan et al 2020, |
| Probability of diagnosing AF not using iECG | 0.028 | … | Yan et al 2020 |
| Relative risk of background mortality for patients with AF and no AF | 1.66 | 1.59–1.73 | Miyasaka et al 2007 |
| Probability of treating with oral anticoagulant in the iECG group | 0.44 | … | Yan et al 2020 |
| Probability of treating with oral anticoagulant in the no iECG group | 0.625 | … | Yan et al 2020 |
| Probability of recurrent stroke without AF (per yearly cycle) | 0.021 | … | Mohan et al 2011 |
| Probability of having a non‐major stroke | 0.5 | … | Assumption |
| Relative risk of all‐cause mortality for NOAC vs no NOAC | 0.79 | 0.62–1.02 | Connolly et al 2011 |
| Relative risk of stroke for NOAC vs no NOAC | 0.37 | 0.25–0.55 | Connolly et al 2011 |
| Discontinuation rate with NOAC | |||
| First year | 0.15 | … | Garkina et al 2016 |
| Second year onwards | 0.02 | … | Garkina et al 2016 |
| Baseline utility | 0.63 | 0.50–0.76 | Sturm et al 2002 |
| Utility post a major stroke | 0.35 | … | Sturm et al 2002 |
| Utility post a non‐major stroke | 0.55 | … | Sturm et al 2002 |
| Utility decrement from Holter monitoring | 0.0203 | … | Diekmann et al 2019 |
| Utility decrement from iECG monitoring | 0.0020 | … | Assumption |
AF indicates atrial fibrillation; iECG, smartphone‐based handheld ECG device; NOAC, new oral anticoagulant; and TIA, transient ischemic attack.
Assuming equal probability of having a major and non‐major stroke.
Unit Costs of Markov Model Parameters
| Cost item | Unit cost | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Gastrointestinal bleeding | $4777 | AR‐DRG G61A, G61B |
| Intracranial bleeding |
$23 648 ($19 060–28 235) | AR‐DRG B70A |
| Hospitalization for a major stroke |
$17 724 ($14 212–21 235) | Cost weight 8.0 round 20 (2015–2016) |
| Dying immediately from acute stroke |
$11 541 ($9302–13 779) | Cost weight 8.0 round 20 (2015–2016) |
| Hospitalization for a non‐major stroke |
$6666 ($5372–7959) | Cost weight 8.0 round 20 (2015–2016) |
| Monitoring with iECG | $22 | Orchard et al |
| Nurse’s time to administer iECG monitoring | $5.6 | Calculated as 10 min (10 recordings ×1 min/recording) times with the average hourly wage (A$33.59) for a nurse |
| Monitoring with 24‐h Holter | $170.15 | MBS 11709 |
| Specialist consultation | $86.85 | MBS 104 |
| GP consultation | $38.75 | MBS 23 |
| Management post a non‐major stroke | $1559 | Arona et al 2018 |
| Management post a major stroke |
$11 368 ($9162–13 573) | Arona et al 2018 |
| Novel oral anticoagulant medication per year | $1273 | PBS 10414D |
| Rehabilitation for a major stroke |
$67 158 ($60 340–73 976) | Costing data from Royal Melbourne Hospital, Australia |
| Rehabilitation for a non‐major stroke | $7170 | Gao et al 2019 |
MBS indicates Medicare Benefits Schedule Australia ; and PBS, Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme Australia.
Base Case Results From the Cost‐Effectiveness Analysis
| iECG | Usual care | Difference | ES | ICER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cost | $31 196 | $31 095 | $101 | 0.002 | |
| Management | $22 238 | $22 240 | −$3 | … | |
| Rehabilitation | $5506 | $5717 | −$211 | … | |
| Hospitalization | $2792 | $2888 | −$96 | … | |
| NOAC | $563 | $222 | $342 | … | |
| Adverse events | $70 | $28 | $43 | … | |
| iECG device | $27 | $0 | $27 | … | |
| No. of recurrent stroke | 0.344 | 0.358 | −0.014 | 0.019 | $7374 |
| No. of stroke‐related death | 0.064 | 0.066 | −0.002 | 0.008 | $56 275 |
| QALY | 6.697 | 6.663 | 0.034 | 0.012 | $3013 |
| LY | 11.51 | 11.47 | 0.037 | 0.008 | $2733 |
ES indicates effect size (calculated as standardized mean difference); ICER, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio; iECG, smartphone‐based handheld ECG device; LY, life‐year; NOAC, new oral anticoagulant; and QALY, quality‐adjusted life‐year.
The average number of events across all simulated cohort since not all patients would experience an event over the modeled time horizon.
Effect size <0.1 is considered trivial.
Figure 2Tornado diagram for the 1‐way deterministic sensitivity analyses.
Incremental net monetary benefit was calculated according to the willingness‐to‐pay/quality‐adjusted life‐year threshold of $50 000. The expected value at base case suggests that smartphone‐based handheld ECG device (iECG) is associated with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of $3013/quality‐adjusted life‐year in the base case scenario. RR_stroke and utility_baseline do not align with the base case line as they both impact the results of iECG and standard care arms. c_NOAC indicates cost of new oral anticoagulant medications; c_hosp_majorStroke, cost of hospitalization for a major stroke; c_hosp_minorStroke: cost of hospitalization for a minor stroke; c_mgmt_majorStroke, annual management cost post a major stroke; c_mgmt_minorStroke, annual cost of management post a minor stroke; disc_rate, discount rate; EV, expected value; ICER, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio; p_treated_AF_iECG, probability of initiating oral anticoagulant treatment after AF detection by iECG; RR_allCauseMortality, relative risk of all cause mortality for oral anticoagulant treated vs non‐oral anticoagulant treated patients; RR_stroke, relative risk of stroke for oral anticoagulant treated vs non‐oral anticoagulant treated patients; timeHorizon, long‐term modeled time horizon; and utility_baseline, utility weight for being post an ischemic stroke at baseline.
Figure 3Incremental cost‐effectiveness plane from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
One hundred percent of results suggesting smartphone‐based handheld ECG device being the cost‐effective monitoring strategy with 9.5% indicating less costly and more effective using the $50 000/quality‐adjusted life‐year willingness‐to‐pay threshold. AUD indicates Australian dollar; QALY, quality‐adjusted life‐year; and WTP, willingness‐to‐pay.