| Literature DB >> 35392481 |
Hannah Tuulikki Hohl1, Christian Heumann2, Camilla Rothe1, Michael Hoelscher1,3, Christian Janke1, Guenter Froeschl1,3.
Abstract
To assess the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the number of reported positive test results is frequently used as an estimate of the true number of population-wide infections. We conducted a retrospective observational analysis of patient data of the Corona Testing Unit (CTU) in Munich, Bavaria, Germany between January 27th, and September 30th, 2020. We analyzed the course of daily patient numbers over time by fitting a negative binomial model with multiple breakpoints. Additionally, we investigated possible influencing factors on patient numbers and characteristics by literature review of policy papers and key informant interviews with individuals involved in the set-up of the CTU. The 3,963 patients included were mostly young (median age: 34, interquartile range: 27-48), female (66.2%), and working in the healthcare sector (77%). For these, 5,314 real-time RT-PCR tests were conducted with 157 (2.94%) positive results. The overall curve of daily tests and positive results fits the re-ported state-wide incidence in large parts but shows multiple breakpoints with considerable trend changes. These can be most fittingly attributed to testing capacities and -strategies and individual risk behavior, rather than public health measures. With the large impact on patient numbers and pre-test probabilities of various strategic and operational factors, we consider the derived re-ported incidence as a poor measurement to base policy decisions on. Testing units should be prepared to encounter these fluctuations with a quickly adaptable structure.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; Germany; Munich; SARS-CoV-2; epidemiology; public health; testing unit
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35392481 PMCID: PMC8980425 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.856189
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Public Health ISSN: 2296-2565
Patient characteristics: frequency and percentage by age group and test result.
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| Female | 200 | 52.6% | 2 | 50.0% | 1,779 | 64.4% | 54 | 67.5% | 1,245 | 72.2% | 45 | 69.2% | 194 | 65.1% | 5 | 62.5% | 3,420 | 66.2% | 106 | 67.5% |
| Male | 180 | 47.4% | 2 | 50.0% | 983 | 35.6% | 26 | 32.5% | 480 | 27.8% | 20 | 30.8% | 104 | 34.9% | 3 | 37.5% | 1,747 | 33.8% | 51 | 32.5% |
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| Webasto cohort | – | – | 6 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.5% | 5 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.1% | – | – | 11 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.5% | ||||
| Travel returnees | 36 | 9.5% | 2 | 50.0% | 281 | 10.2% | 8 | 10.0% | 154 | 8.9% | 6 | 9.2% | 23 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 495 | 9.6% | 16 | 10.2% |
| HCW | 76 | 20.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 2,270 | 82.2% | 63 | 78.8% | 1,453 | 84.2% | 53 | 81.5% | 201 | 67.4% | 8 | 100.0% | 4,001 | 77.4% | 126 | 80.3% |
| Pre-OP patients | 1 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 28 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.3% | 24 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 50 | 16.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 103 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6% |
| School cohort | 164 | 43.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 7 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 13 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 184 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| Others | 103 | 27.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 170 | 6.2% | 6 | 7.5% | 76 | 4.4% | 4 | 6.2% | 24 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 373 | 7.2% | 10 | 6.4% |
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| Caregiver | – | – | – | – | 19 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 27 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| Administration | – | – | 19 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 37 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5% | 5 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 61 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.6% | ||
| Cleaner | – | – | 15 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 32 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.3% | ||
| Employee | 2 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 19 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 11 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | – | – | 32 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | ||
| Occupational therapist | – | – | 49 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | – | – | 57 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| Housekeeping | – | – | 14 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 31 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | ||
| No information | 160 | 42.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 1,604 | 58.1% | 54 | 67.5% | 1,033 | 59.9% | 46 | 70.8% | 189 | 63.4% | 5 | 62.5% | 2,988 | 57.8% | 109 | 69.4% |
| Nurse/Geriatric nurse/Nursing assistant | 12 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 451 | 16.3% | 15 | 18.8% | 252 | 14.6% | 8 | 12.3% | 33 | 11.1% | 3 | 37.5% | 748 | 14.5% | 26 | 16.6% |
| Other occupation | 7 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 230 | 8.3% | 1 | 1.3% | 222 | 12.9% | 3 | 4.6% | 43 | 14.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 502 | 9.7% | 4 | 2.5% |
| Physician | 1 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 178 | 6.4% | 6 | 7.5% | 62 | 3.6% | 2 | 3.1% | 8 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 249 | 4.8% | 8 | 5.1% |
| Physiotherapist | – | – | 68 | 2.5% | 2 | 2.5% | 19 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.1% | – | – | 87 | 1.7% | 4 | 2.5% | ||||
| Speech therapist | – | – | 29 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 9 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 39 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0% | ||
| Student | 192 | 50.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 56 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.5% | 6 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 255 | 4.9% | 2 | 1.3% |
| Teacher | 1 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 29 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% |
| Trainee | 3 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 17 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.5% | – | – | 21 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6% | ||
| Unemployed | 2 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 9 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Strong symptoms | 86 | 22.6% | 4 | 100.0% | 740 | 26.8% | 39 | 48.8% | 437 | 25.3% | 39 | 60.0% | 60 | 20.1% | 7 | 87.5% | 1,325 | 25.6% | 89 | 56.7% |
| Light/No symptoms | 291 | 76.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 1,947 | 70.5% | 38 | 47.5% | 1,258 | 72.9% | 25 | 38.5% | 228 | 76.5% | 1 | 12.5% | 3,724 | 72.1% | 64 | 40.8% |
| No information | 3 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 75 | 2.7% | 3 | 3.8% | 30 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.5% | 10 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 118 | 2.3% | 4 | 2.5% |
| Days since symptom onset | 5.2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
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| Colleague | 25 | 7.4% | 2 | 50.0% | 828 | 32.9% | 30 | 41.1% | 607 | 40.4% | 21 | 36.2% | 88 | 37.9% | 4 | 57.1% | 1,548 | 33.7% | 57 | 40.1% |
| Patient | 13 | 3.8% | 2 | 50.0% | 590 | 23.4% | 27 | 37.0% | 332 | 22.1% | 19 | 32.8% | 42 | 18.0% | 2 | 28.6% | 977 | 21.3% | 50 | 35.2% |
| Private | 58 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 204 | 8.0% | 8 | 10.7% | 111 | 7.3% | 8 | 13.6% | 21 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 395 | 8.5% | 16 | 11.0% |
| Other exposition | 112 | 32.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 178 | 7.0% | 8 | 10.7% | 87 | 5.7% | 2 | 3.4% | 13 | 5.5% | 3 | 42.9% | 390 | 8.4% | 13 | 9.0% |
| No exposition | 104 | 30.0% | 1 | 25.0% | 837 | 32.7% | 9 | 12.0% | 448 | 29.6% | 12 | 20.3% | 90 | 38.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 1,480 | 31.8% | 22 | 15.2% |
| No information | 43 | 11.3% | 1 | 25.0% | 258 | 9.3% | 4 | 5.0% | 243 | 14.1% | 7 | 10.8% | 67 | 22.5% | 1 | 12.5% | 611 | 11.8% | 13 | 8.3% |
Days Since Symptom Onset: Mean and Inter-Quartile Range.
Figure 1Patient numbers over time. Seven-day moving average of daily patient numbers (blue), negative binomial model (red) with breakpoints (gray).
Figure 2Self-reported patient characteristics over time. (A) Number of patients per group over time, (B) number of patients with no to light symptoms or strong symptoms over time, and (C) number of patients per type of exposition to COVID-19 positive case.
Figure 3Box plot of days since onset of symptoms, per month.
Figure 4Countries of reported travel history. Bimonthly numbers of travel returnees admitted to the CTU by country (colored areas) and risk countries as by RKI (blue outlines).
Figure 5PCR-test results and potential influencing factors over time. Patient numbers (light red) and positive rates (blue) per calendar week, timeline of potential influencing factors. *R, recommendation; *M, mandatory.