| Literature DB >> 35387005 |
Beth Addison-Smith1, Andelija Milic1, Divya Dwarakanath1, Marko Simunovic1, Shanice Van Haeften1, Victoria Timbrell1, Janet M Davies1,2.
Abstract
Grass pollen is the major outdoor trigger of allergic respiratory diseases. Climate change is influencing pollen seasonality in Northern Hemisphere temperate regions, but many aspects of the effects on grass pollen remain unclear. Carbon dioxide and temperature rises could increase the distribution of subtropical grasses, however, medium term shifts in grass pollen in subtropical climates have not yet been analysed. This study investigates changes in grass pollen aerobiology in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia, between the two available monitoring periods, 1994-1999 and 2016-2020. Potential drivers of pollen change were examined including weather and satellite-derived vegetation indicators. The magnitude of the seasonal pollen index for grass showed almost a three-fold increase for 2016-2020 over 1994-1999. The number and proportion of high and extreme grass pollen days in the recent period increased compared to earlier monitoring. Statistically significant changes were also identified for distributions of CO2, satellite-derived seasonal vegetation health indices, and daily maximum temperatures, but not for minimum temperatures, daily rainfall, or seasonal fraction of green groundcover. Quarterly grass pollen levels were correlated with corresponding vegetation health indices, and with green groundcover fraction, suggesting that seasonal-scale plant health was higher in the latter period. The magnitude of grass pollen exposure in the subtropical region of Brisbane has increased markedly in the recent past, posing an increased environmental health threat. This study suggests the need for continuous pollen monitoring to track and respond to the possible effects of climate change on grass pollen loads.Entities:
Keywords: aerobiology; allergy; climate change; grass pollen; pollen; southern hemisphere; subtropical
Year: 2021 PMID: 35387005 PMCID: PMC8974679 DOI: 10.3389/falgy.2021.705313
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Allergy ISSN: 2673-6101
Figure 1Aerial photographs of Rocklea (A) on 4th of October 1994 (QImagery, The State of Queensland 2021) and (B) on 11th of April 2017 (Nearmap). Rocklea pollen monitoring site indicated with a Blue marker.
Figure 2Comparison of (A) distribution of daily grass pollen concentrations capped at 300 grains/m3 with values greater than three median absolute deviations from the median marked in red. Large proportions of outliers reflect the skewed distribution of the data. (B) Distribution of median monthly grass pollen concentration, (C) grass pollen severity (proportion of grass pollen in exposure categories) and (D) cumulative daily grass pollen concentrations since start of a season, between 1990s (blue) and 2010s (green) periods.
Figure 3Monthly and annual pollen, rainfall, and temperature. (A) Monthly sums of maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, and grass pollen. (B) Monthly mean maximum temperature change between the two monitoring periods. (C) Annual pollen and maximum temperature sums (marker's size increases with each season; from 1994-1995 to 1998-1999 and from 2016-2017 to 2019-2020).
Figure 4Satellite-derived vegetation measures and correlations with grass pollen within 5 km of the pollen sampler (A) Spearman correlations of median quarterly pollen with groundcover fractions (left) and VI (right); (B) Scatter plots of mean quarterly VI and median pollen for the 50 km radial buffer; (C) Regressions of groundcover fractions over 27 years.