Darren Stewart1, Brian Shepard2, John Rosendale1, Harrison McGehee1, Isaac Hall3, Gaurav Gupta4, Kunam Reddy5, Bertram Kasiske6, Kenneth Andreoni7, David Klassen2. 1. Research Department, United Network for Organ Sharing, Richmond, Virginia. 2. Chief Executive Officer, United Network for Organ Sharing, Richmond, Virginia. 3. Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah. 4. Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia. 5. Division of Transplant and Hepatobiliary Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, Arizona. 6. Hennepin Healthcare Research Institute, Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, and Department of Medicine, Hennepin Healthcare, Minneapolis, Minnesota; and. 7. Department of Surgery, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
Abstract
Background: The use of procurement biopsies for assessing kidney quality has been implicated as a driver of the nearly 20% kidney discard rate in the United States. Yet in some contexts, biopsies may boost clinical confidence, enabling acceptance of kidneys that would otherwise be discarded. We leveraged a novel organ offer simulation platform to conduct a controlled experiment isolating biopsy effects on offer acceptance decisions. Methods: Between November 26 and December 14, 2018, 41 kidney transplant surgeons and 27 transplant nephrologists each received the same 20 hypothetical kidney offers using a crossover design with weekend "washout" periods. Mini-study 1 included four, low serum creatinine (<1.5 mg/dl) donor offers with arguably "poor" biopsy findings that were based on real offers that were accepted with successful 3-year recipient outcome. For each of the four offers, two experimental variants-no biopsy and "good" biopsy-were also sent. Mini-study 2 included four AKI offers with no biopsy, each having an offer variant with "good" biopsy findings. Results: Among low serum creatinine donor offers, we found approximately threefold higher odds of acceptance when arguably poor biopsy findings were hidden or replaced with good biopsy findings. Among AKI donor offers, we found nearly fourfold higher odds of acceptance with good biopsy findings compared with no biopsy. Biopsy information had profound but variable effects on decision making: more participants appeared to have been influenced by biopsies to rule out, versus rule in, transplantable kidneys. Conclusions: The current use of biopsies in the United States appears skewed toward inducing kidney discard. Several areas for improvement, including reducing variation in offer acceptance decisions and more accurate interpretation of findings, have the potential to make better use of scarce, donated organs. Offer simulation studies are a viable research tool for understanding decision making and identifying ways to improve the transplant system.
Background: The use of procurement biopsies for assessing kidney quality has been implicated as a driver of the nearly 20% kidney discard rate in the United States. Yet in some contexts, biopsies may boost clinical confidence, enabling acceptance of kidneys that would otherwise be discarded. We leveraged a novel organ offer simulation platform to conduct a controlled experiment isolating biopsy effects on offer acceptance decisions. Methods: Between November 26 and December 14, 2018, 41 kidney transplant surgeons and 27 transplant nephrologists each received the same 20 hypothetical kidney offers using a crossover design with weekend "washout" periods. Mini-study 1 included four, low serum creatinine (<1.5 mg/dl) donor offers with arguably "poor" biopsy findings that were based on real offers that were accepted with successful 3-year recipient outcome. For each of the four offers, two experimental variants-no biopsy and "good" biopsy-were also sent. Mini-study 2 included four AKI offers with no biopsy, each having an offer variant with "good" biopsy findings. Results: Among low serum creatinine donor offers, we found approximately threefold higher odds of acceptance when arguably poor biopsy findings were hidden or replaced with good biopsy findings. Among AKI donor offers, we found nearly fourfold higher odds of acceptance with good biopsy findings compared with no biopsy. Biopsy information had profound but variable effects on decision making: more participants appeared to have been influenced by biopsies to rule out, versus rule in, transplantable kidneys. Conclusions: The current use of biopsies in the United States appears skewed toward inducing kidney discard. Several areas for improvement, including reducing variation in offer acceptance decisions and more accurate interpretation of findings, have the potential to make better use of scarce, donated organs. Offer simulation studies are a viable research tool for understanding decision making and identifying ways to improve the transplant system.
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