| Literature DB >> 35370758 |
Jigang Chen1,2, Linjin Ji3, Xin Tong1,2, Mingyang Han4, Songfeng Zhao4, Yongkai Qin4, Zilong He4, Zhiqun Jiang3, Aihua Liu1,2,5.
Abstract
Background: Although ticagrelor plus aspirin is more effective than aspirin alone in preventing the 30-day risk of a composite of stroke or death in patients with an acute mild-to-moderate ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA), the cost-effectiveness of this combination therapy remains unknown. This study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone.Entities:
Keywords: aspirin; cost-effectiveness analysis; stroke; ticagrelor; transient ischemic attack
Year: 2022 PMID: 35370758 PMCID: PMC8971565 DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2022.790048
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Pharmacol ISSN: 1663-9812 Impact factor: 5.810
FIGURE 1The schematic structure of the model. A patient with an acute mild-to-moderate IS or TIA entered the model at 65 years old receiving either ticagrelor plus aspirin or aspirin alone for the first 30 days. Patients would distribute among different health statuses determined by mRS scores at 30 days and transit to a state of equal or greater disability after recurrent stroke or die after 30 days. IS, ischemic stroke; mRS, modified Rankin Scale; TIA, transient ischemic attack.
List of input parameters.
| Parameters | Base case value | Range | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day outcome of aspirin alone | ||||
| Probability of primary outcome | 0.066 | 0.060–0.073 | Beta, SD: 0.003 |
|
| Proportion of death | 0.075 | 0.052–0.106 | Beta, SD: 0.014 |
|
| Proportion of IS | 0.953 | 0.926–0.970 | Beta, SD: 0.011 |
|
| Proportion of ICH | 0.017 | 0.008–0.036 | Beta, SD: 0.007 |
|
| Probability of major ECH | 0.001 | 0.000–0.003 | Beta, SD: 0.001 |
|
| Proportion of mRS 0 | 0.365 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 1 | 0.395 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 2 | 0.140 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 3 | 0.056 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 4 | 0.034 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 5 | 0.004 | — | — |
|
| 30-day outcome of ticagrelor added to aspirin | ||||
| HR of primary outcome | 0.830 | 0.710–0.960 | Beta: SD: 0.060 |
|
| Proportion of death | 0.119 | 0.087–0.160 | Beta, SD: 0.018 |
|
| Proportion of IS | 0.911 | 0.874–0.938 | Beta, SD: 0.016 |
|
| Proportion of ICH | 0.066 | 0.043–0.100 | Beta, SD: 0.014 |
|
| Probability of major ECH | 0.005 | 0.004–0.007 | Beta, SD: 0.001 |
|
| Proportion of mRS 0 | 0.372 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 1 | 0.390 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 2 | 0.139 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 3 | 0.057 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 4 | 0.031 | — | — |
|
| Proportion of mRS 5 | 0.004 | — | — |
|
| Probabilities | ||||
| Recurrent rate of stroke per life-year | 0.122 | 0.116–0.128 | Beta, SD: 0.003 |
|
| Proportion of ICH | 0.075 | 0.075–0.146 | Beta, SD: 0.018 |
|
| RR of stroke recurrence per life-year | 1.030 | 1.020–1.040 | Lognormal, SD: 0.005 |
|
| Death after recurrent stroke | 0.193 | 0.174–0.213 | Beta, SD: 0.010 |
|
| Mortality hazard ratios | ||||
| mRS 0 | 1.000 | — | Lognormal, SD: 0.050 |
|
| mRS 1 | 1.000 | — | Lognormal, SD: 0.050 |
|
| mRS 2 | 1.110 | — | Lognormal, SD: 0.083 |
|
| mRS 3 | 1.270 | — | Lognormal, SD: 0.127 |
|
| mRS 4 | 1.710 | — | Lognormal, SD: 0.171 |
|
| mRS 5 | 2.370 | — | Lognormal, SD: 0.237 |
|
| Cost (2020 Chinese Yuan Renminbi, ¥) | ||||
| Additional cost of ticagrelor | 394 | 174–593 | Gamma, SD: 105 | Tuling |
| Hospitalization cost for IS, independent | 10,958 | 13,698–8,219 | Gamma, SD: 1370 |
|
| Hospitalization cost for IS, dependent | 13,605 | 10,204–17,006 | Gamma, SD: 1701 |
|
| Hospitalization cost for IS, death | 11,970 | 8,978–14,963 | Gamma, SD: 1496 |
|
| Hospitalization cost for ICH, independent | 13,174 | 9,881–16,468 | Gamma, SD: 1647 |
|
| Hospitalization cost for ICH, dependent or death | 17,490 | 13,118–21,863 | Gamma, SD: 2186 |
|
| Hospitalization cost for major ECH | 8,535 | 6,401–10,669 | Gamma, SD: 1067 |
|
| Annual posthospitalization cost for independent | 8,310 | 6,233–10,388 | Gamma, SD: 1039 |
|
| Annual posthospitalization cost for dependent | 12,771 | 9,578–15,964 | Gamma, SD: 1596 |
|
| Utility | ||||
| mRS 0 | 0.850 | 0.800–1.000 | Beta, SD: 0.050 |
|
| mRS 1 | 0.800 | 0.800–0.950 | Beta, SD: 0.038 |
|
| mRS 2 | 0.700 | 0.680–0.900 | Beta, SD: 0.055 |
|
| mRS 3 | 0.510 | 0.450–0.650 | Beta, SD: 0.050 |
|
| mRS 4 | 0.300 | 0.100–0.400 | Beta, SD: 0.075 |
|
| mRS 5 | 0.150 | 0.000–0.320 | Beta, SD: 0.080 |
|
| mRS 6 or death | 0.000 | |||
| Disutility of recurrent stroke | 0.660 | 0.640–0.680 | Beta, SD: 0.010 |
|
| Disutility of major ECH | 0.200 | 0.160–0.230 | Beta, SD: 0.018 |
|
ECH, extracranial hemorrhage; HR, hazard ratio; ICH, intracranial hemorrhage; IS, ischemic stroke; mRS, modified Rankin scale; RR, relative risk; SD, standard deviation
FIGURE 2Tornado diagram of one-way sensitivity analyses. The plot shows how varying one input parameter to its limits at a time affects the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). ECH, extracranial hemorrhage; EV, expected value; ICH, intracranial hemorrhage; IS, ischemic stroke; mRS, modified Rankin Scale.
FIGURE 3Results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The dots that lie to the right of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) line mean the cases where ticagrelor plus aspirin is cost-effective when compared with aspirin alone.
FIGURE 4Subgroup analyses of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) by varying the hazard ratio of primary outcome between the ticagrelor-plus-aspirin group and the aspirin-alone group. CI, confidence interval.