Guanhao He1, Fangfang Zeng2,3, Jianpeng Xiao4, Jianguo Zhao4, Tao Liu2, Jianxiong Hu4, Sicong Zhang5, Ziqiang Lin6, Huaiping Zhu7, Dan Liu2, Min Kang1, Haojie Zhong1, Yan Li1, Limei Sun1, Yuwei Yang1, Zhixing Li2, Zuhua Rong4, Weilin Zeng4, Xing Li4, Zhihua Zhu4, Xiaofeng Liang3,8, Wenjun Ma2,3. 1. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. 2. Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. 3. Disease Control and Prevention Institute, Jinan University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. 4. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. 5. BNU-HKBU United International College, Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, China. 6. Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, New York University, New York City, New York, Unites States. 7. Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto City, Ontario, Canada. 8. Jinan University-BioKangtai Vaccine Institute, Jinan University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China.
Abstract
Introduction: With the large-scale roll-out of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination effort (a vaccine dose given 6 months after completing primary vaccination) in China, we explore when and how China could lift non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in 2022. Methods: Using a modified susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) mathematical model, we projected the COVID-19 epidemic situation and required medical resources in Guangdong Province, China. Results: If the number of people entering from overseas recovers to 20% of the number in 2019, the epidemic in 2022 could be controlled at a low level by a containment (215 local cases) or suppression strategy (1,397 local cases). A mitigation strategy would lead to 21,722 local cases. A coexistence strategy would lead to a large epidemic with 6,850,083 local cases that would overwhelm Guangdong's medical system. With 50% or 100% recovery of the 2019 level of travelers from overseas, the epidemic could also be controlled with containment or suppression, but enormous resources, including more hotel rooms for border quarantine, will be required. However, coexistence would lead to an uncontrollable epidemic with 12,922,032 local cases. Discussion: With booster vaccinations, the number of travelers from overseas could increase slightly in 2022, but a suppression strategy would need to be maintained to ensure a controllable epidemic. Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2022.
Introduction: With the large-scale roll-out of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination effort (a vaccine dose given 6 months after completing primary vaccination) in China, we explore when and how China could lift non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in 2022. Methods: Using a modified susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) mathematical model, we projected the COVID-19 epidemic situation and required medical resources in Guangdong Province, China. Results: If the number of people entering from overseas recovers to 20% of the number in 2019, the epidemic in 2022 could be controlled at a low level by a containment (215 local cases) or suppression strategy (1,397 local cases). A mitigation strategy would lead to 21,722 local cases. A coexistence strategy would lead to a large epidemic with 6,850,083 local cases that would overwhelm Guangdong's medical system. With 50% or 100% recovery of the 2019 level of travelers from overseas, the epidemic could also be controlled with containment or suppression, but enormous resources, including more hotel rooms for border quarantine, will be required. However, coexistence would lead to an uncontrollable epidemic with 12,922,032 local cases. Discussion: With booster vaccinations, the number of travelers from overseas could increase slightly in 2022, but a suppression strategy would need to be maintained to ensure a controllable epidemic. Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2022.
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