| Literature DB >> 35356559 |
Jun-Ming Zhang1,2, Xiang-Yong Peng3, Min-Li Song2, Zhen-Jian Li1, Xin-Qiao Xu1, Wei Wang1,4.
Abstract
Understanding the impacts and constraints of climate change on the geographical distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata is crucial for its sustainable management and economic development as a medicinal material or fruit. In this study, according to the first-hand information obtained from field investigation, the distribution and response to climate change of A. trifoliata were studied by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The genetic diversity and population structure of 21 natural populations of A. trifoliata were studied by simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. The results showed that the most important bioclimatic variable limiting the distribution of A. trifoliata was the Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (bio11). Under the scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the suitable area of A. trifoliata in the world will remain stable, and the suitable area will increase significantly under the scenarios of SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable growth regions of A. trifoliata in China were 79.9-122.7°E and 21.5-37.5°N. Under the four emission scenarios in the future, the geometric center of the suitable distribution regions of Akebia trifoliata in China will move to the north. The clustering results of 21 populations of A. trifoliata analyzed by SSR markers showed that they had a trend of evolution from south to north.Entities:
Keywords: ArcGIS; MaxEnt; SSR markers; climate change; geographical distribution; suitable distribution regions
Year: 2022 PMID: 35356559 PMCID: PMC8941373 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8714
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
FIGURE 1Occurrence record of Akebia trifoliata in China
List of climate variables
| Variables | Abbreviation | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Mean Temperature | Bio1 | ℃ |
| Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp–min temp)) | Bio2 | ℃ |
| Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (×100) | Bio3 | – |
| Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation × 100) | Bio4 | ℃ |
| Max Temperature of Warmest Month | Bio5 | ℃ |
| Min Temperature of Coldest Month | Bio6 | ℃ |
| Temperature Annual Range (BIO5‐BIO6) | Bio7 | ℃ |
| Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter | Bio8 | ℃ |
| Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter | Bio9 | ℃ |
| Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter | Bio10 | ℃ |
| Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter | Bio11 | ℃ |
| Annual Precipitation | Bio12 | mm |
| Precipitation of Wettest Month | Bio13 | mm |
| Precipitation of Driest Month | Bio14 | mm |
| Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) | Bio15 | – |
| Precipitation of Wettest Quarter | Bio16 | mm |
| Precipitation of Driest Quarter | Bio17 | mm |
| Precipitation of Warmest Quarter | Bio18 | mm |
| Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | Bio19 | mm |
FIGURE 2ROC curve, Jackknife test of MaxEnt. (a) ROC curve of the Maxent model (10 runs). (b) Jackknife test of the Maxent model
FIGURE 3Response curves between the probability of presence and climate variables (10 runs). Blue: mean ±one standard deviation. (a) the Mean Diurnal Range (bio2). (b) the Temperature Seasonality (bio4). (c) the Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (bio11). (d) the Annual Precipitation (bio12)
FIGURE 4Current suitable distribution regions of Akebia trifoliata. (a) Distribution of Akebia trifoliata in the world. (b) Distribution of Akebia trifoliata in China
FIGURE 5The suitable distribution regions of Akebia trifoliata in scenario SSP5‐8.5. (a) The suitable distribution regions in 2021. (b) The suitable distribution regions in 2041. (c) The suitable distribution regions in 2061. (d) The suitable distribution regions in 2081
FIGURE 6The broken line diagram of the suitable area of Akebia trifoliata. (a) The total suitable area of Akebia trifoliata in the world. (b) The total suitable area of Akebia trifoliata in China
FIGURE 7Geometric centers of suitable distribution regions of Akebia trifoliata in China. (a–b) Geometric centers under current scenario and four future scenarios (enlarge a to get b). (c–f) Geometric centers in SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios
FIGURE 8Clustering results and evolutionary relationship of 21 Akebia trifoliata populations. (a) Clustering results by Neighbor‐joining Method of 21 Akebia trifoliata populations. (b) Distribution of 21 Akebia trifoliata populations