| Literature DB >> 35355081 |
Michael G Walsh1,2,3,4, Amrita Pattanaik5, Navya Vyas3,4, Deepak Saxena6, Cameron Webb2,7, Shailendra Sawleshwarkar2,3,4,8, Chiranjay Mukhopadhyay9,10.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus that causes a significant burden of disease across Asia, particularly in India, with high mortality in children. JEV circulates in wild ardeid birds and domestic pig reservoirs, both of which generate sufficiently high viraemias to infect vector mosquitoes, which can then subsequently infect humans. The landscapes of these hosts, particularly in the context of anthropogenic ecotones and resulting wildlife-livestock interfaces, are poorly understood and thus significant knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of JEV persist. This study sought to investigate the landscape epidemiology of JEV outbreaks in India over the period 2010-2020 to determine the influence of shared wetland and rain-fed agricultural landscapes and animal hosts on outbreak risk.Entities:
Keywords: Japanese encephalitis; Zoonosis; landscape epidemiology; vector-borne disease; wildlife–livestock–human interface
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35355081 PMCID: PMC9557850 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyac050
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Epidemiol ISSN: 0300-5771 Impact factor: 9.685
Figure 1Theoretical representation of landscapes with wetland (a) and rain-fed crops (b) and their potential animal host occupants. Multiple transmission cycles of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) may be realised in such landscapes such as transmission among Ardeidae maintenance hosts (C1), shared transmission between ardeid birds and domestic pigs and chickens at the wildlife–livestock interface (C2) and concentrated transmission among domesticated amplification hosts (C3).
Figure 2The spatial (left) and temporal (right) distributions of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in India. Outbreaks that occurred during the high incidence period are represented in dark shade (burgundy) and those that occurred during the low incidence period in light shade (khaki). The map does not reflect the authors’ assertion of territory or borders of any sovereign country including India and is displayed only to present the distribution of JEV occurrence.
Adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for the associations between Japanese encephalitis virus outbreaks and each landscape feature as derived from the best fitting inhomogeneous Poisson models. Each landscape feature is adjusted for all others in each of the two models.
| Landscape feature | Relative risk | 95% confidence interval |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Ardeidae landscape suitability (%) | 2.77 | 1.15–6.69 | 0.01 |
| Pig density (deciles) | 1.30 | 1.22–1.39 | <0.00001 |
| Chicken density (deciles) | 1.09 | 1.03–1.15 | 0.003 |
| Distance to river (km) | 0.997 | 0.995–0.999 | 0.005 |
| Distance to freshwater marsh (km) | 0.996 | 0.995–0.997 | <0.00001 |
| Distance to fragmented rain-fed agriculture (km) | 0.976 | 0.968–0.985 | <0.00001 |
| Freshwater marsh:fragmented rain-fed agriculture | 1.00008 | 1.00005–1.0001 | <0.00001 |
| Mean precipitation during the wettest quarter (10 cm) | 1.008 | 1.006–1.009 | <0.00001 |
| Mean precipitation during the driest quarter (10 cm) | 1.15 | 1.10–1.20 | <0.00001 |
|
| |||
| Ardeidae landscape suitability (%) | 2.44 | 1.02–5.86 | 0.0002 |
| Pig density (deciles) | 1.29 | 1.20–1.38 | <0.00001 |
| Chicken density (deciles) | 1.09 | 1.03–1.16 | 0.001 |
| Distance to river (km) | 0.996 | 0.994–0.998 | 0.00007 |
| Distance to freshwater marsh (km) | 0.997 | 0.996–0.998 | <0.00001 |
| Distance to fragmented rain-fed agriculture (km) | 0.978 | 0.970–0.987 | <0.00001 |
| River:fragmented rain-fed agriculture | 1.0001 | 1.00007–1.0002 | <0.00001 |
| Mean precipitation during the wettest quarter (10 cm) | 1.007 | 1.006–1.009 | <0.00001 |
| Mean precipitation during the driest quarter (10 cm) | 1.15 | 1.10–1.20 | <0.00001 |
Figure 3Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak risk based on predicted intensity at 1.0 arc minutes (∼2 km). The centre panels depict the distribution of JEV risk for freshwater marsh-fragmented rain-fed agriculture (top) and for river-fragmented rain-fed agriculture (bottom) models as deciles of the predicted intensities from the best fitting and performing inhomogeneous Poisson point process models (Table 1). The left and right panels depict the lower and upper 95% confidence limits, respectively, for the predicted intensities. The map does not reflect the authors’ assertion of territory or borders of any sovereign country including India and is displayed only to present the distribution of JEV occurrence.
Figure 4Homogeneous (left panels) and inhomogeneous (right panels) K-functions for the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak point process. The homogeneous K-function is not an appropriate fit due to the spatial dependency in JEV outbreaks as depicted by the divergent empirical (solid line) and theoretical functions (the latter is the theoretical function under complete spatial randomness, represented by the dashed line with confidence bands in grey). In contrast, the freshwater marsh-fragmented rain-fed agriculture (top) and river-fragmented rain-fed agriculture (bottom) model-based inhomogeneous K-functions show that the spatial dependency was accounted for by the model covariates (overlapping empirical and theoretical functions). The x-axes, r, represent increasing radii of subregions of the window of JEV outbreaks, whereas the y-axes represent the K-functions.