| Literature DB >> 35342593 |
Emmanuel Amoah Boakye1, Daniel Houle2,3, Yves Bergeron1,4, Martin P Girardin5, Igor Drobyshev1,6.
Abstract
Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate-driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co-occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species-specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non-host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity.Entities:
Keywords: boreal mixedwoods; climate change; dendrochronology; hardwoods; insect outbreak; natural disturbances
Year: 2022 PMID: 35342593 PMCID: PMC8932224 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8656
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
FIGURE 1Map of the study area, Lake Duparquet Teaching and Research Forest (LDTRF) in Western Quebec, Canada
Characteristics of sampled trees of the studied species in Lake Duparquet Teaching and Research Forest of Western Quebec
| Species characteristics | White cedar | White spruce | Balsam fir | White birch | Trembling aspen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaf type | Conifer | Conifer | Conifer | Deciduous | Deciduous |
| Total sample of trees | 481 | 136 | 856 | 173 | 412 |
| Inter‐series correlation | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.71 |
| Expressed population signal | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| Max tree age | 183 | 162 | 151 | 224 | 87 |
| Basal area increment ± SD, cm2 year−1 | 3.64 ± 4.7 | 6.61 ± 5.60 | 2.26 ± 3.60 | 7.61 ± 9.6 | 5.24 ± 7.65 |
| Variance measure | 0.39 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.36 |
FIGURE 2Pearson correlation matrix between seasonal climate variables. Suffixes CMI and T denote climate moisture index and temperature, respectively. The prefix Prev denotes previous
FIGURE 3Changes in seasonal climate variables during the period between 1967 and 1991. The prefix Prev denotes previous, whereas the suffixes CMI and T denote climate moisture index and temperature, respectively
Summary of generalized additive mixed model of the effect of tree size, age, and seasonal climatic variables on growth rates
| Characteristics | df | AICc | RMSE |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) GAMM growth model comparison | ||||
| Full model with random factor as in Equation | 1519.54 | 6778.39 | 0.28 | .85 |
| Model without random factor in Equation | 128.03 | 11928.59 | 0.33 | .79 |
| Full model with all variables as in Equation | 1519.54 | 6778.39 | 0.26 | .85 |
| Model with CMI excluded from Equation | 1486.84 | 7990.28 | 0.42 | .84 |
| Model with T excluded from Equation | 1473.54 | 7955.45 | 0.42 | .84 |
The prefix Prev denotes previous, whereas the suffixes CMI and T denote climate moisture index and temperature, respectively. BA = basal area, RMSE = root mean square error, p values indicate the significance of the effect of variables at lower than .05.
FIGURE 4Temporal variability of predicted basal area increment (log BAI) of the species in relation to spruce budworm defoliation, climate, and the two factors combined. The Y‐axis is the log of BAI, as predicted by GAMM. Blue lines are curves representing fitted generalized additive models using a knot of 3. Red lines represent the predicted values from GAMM. Gray shading delimits the bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals. Each row of places represents a species
FIGURE 5Species‐specific linear mixed model estimates of the effects of defoliation, climate, and all factors combined (full GAMM model, Equation 1) on the growth of tree species