Use of geostatistics to predict virus decay rates for determination of septic tank setback distances.

Water samples were collected from 71 public drinking-water supply wells in the Tucson, Ariz., basin. Virus decay rates in the water samples were determined with MS-2 coliphage as a model virus. The correlations between the virus decay rates and the sample locations were shown by fitting a spherical model to the experimental semivariogram. Kriging, a geostatistical technique, was used to calculate virus decay rates at unsampled locations by using the known values at nearby wells. Based on the regional characteristics of groundwater flow and the kriged estimates of virus decay rates, a contour map of the area was constructed. The map shows the variation in separation distances that would have to be maintained between wells and sources of contamination to afford similar degrees of protection from viral contamination of the drinking water in wells throughout the basin.