| Literature DB >> 35327853 |
Daniel Libman1, Gil Ariel1, Mary Schaps1, Simi Haber1.
Abstract
The order book is a list of all current buy or sell orders for a given financial security. The rise of electronic stock exchanges introduced a debate about the relevance of the information it encapsulates of the activity of traders. Here, we approach this topic from a theoretical perspective, estimating the amount of mutual information between order book layers, i.e., different buy/sell layers, which are aggregated by buy/sell orders. We show that (i) layers are not independent (in the sense that the mutual information is statistically larger than zero), (ii) the mutual information between layers is small (compared to the joint entropy), and (iii) the mutual information between layers increases when comparing the uppermost layers to the deepest layers analyzed (i.e., further away from the market price). Our findings, and our method for estimating mutual information, are relevant to developing trading strategies that attempt to utilize the information content of the limit order book.Entities:
Keywords: deep layers of order book; entropy; entropy estimation; limit order book; mutual information; mutual information estimation; price and volume; recursive copula
Year: 2022 PMID: 35327853 PMCID: PMC8947691 DOI: 10.3390/e24030343
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Entropy (Basel) ISSN: 1099-4300 Impact factor: 2.524
Figure 1An example illustrating order book dynamics. An order to buy 50 shares at limit price 1.4 is submitted. This order results in 5 shares being exchanged at price 1.3, 20 shares exchanged at price 1.4, and the remaining 25 shares in the order are now waiting in the order book at price 1.4 on the bid side. As a result, the bid layer shifted from 1.1 vol. 20 to 1.4 vol. 25.
Statistical summary of raw orders and transactions data prior to grouping into layers. Values are presented as median (±IQR/2). Volume in count of instruments. Data include all trading days in 2017.
| Security Ticker | Order Volume (Instruments) | Transaction Volume (Instruments) |
|---|---|---|
| ALHE | 346 (±196) | 186 (±143) |
| DSCT | 1985 (±1031) | 1156 (±769) |
| ESLT | 57 (±26) | 25 (±18) |
| MZTF | 268 (±113) | 172 (±107) |
| STRS | 183 (±98) | 100 (±61) |
Figure 2Order log(volume) statistics.
Figure 3An example of the distribution of price increments and log(volume) for one order book layer of ALHE in 2017. The number of price increments are a count of the minimum interval in price set by TASE from the best bid and best ask. For instance, if the best bid is 7 and the increment is 0.10, a price of 7.30 would appear as 3. This illustrates that price differences are discrete, having specific values with some rare ones, while the log(volume) is approximately continuous in nature.
The full entropy calculations for the initial five stocks.
| Layers | Stock | H(Y) | H(X) | H(X,Y) | H-Groups | AVG-MI-Permutation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X = (4) Y = 5 | ALHE | 3.188 | 3.107 | 6.199 | (6.14, 6.20, 6.25) | <0.01 | −0.016 |
| X = (3) Y = 4 | ALHE | 3.107 | 3.033 | 6.044 | (5.97, 6.07, 6.10) | <0.01 | −0.014 |
| X = (2) Y = 3 | ALHE | 3.033 | 2.599 | 5.558 | (5.48, 5.61, 5.59) | <0.01 | −0.027 |
| X = (1) Y = 2 | ALHE | 2.599 | 2.633 | 5.175 | (5.02, 5.33, 5.16) | <0.01 | −0.034 |
| X = (4) Y = 5 | DSCT | 3.038 | 2.906 | 5.877 | (6.05, 5.79, 5.79) | <0.01 | −0.011 |
| X = (3) Y = 4 | DSCT | 2.906 | 2.768 | 5.610 | (5.75, 5.48, 5.60) | <0.01 | −0.005 |
| X = (2) Y = 3 | DSCT | 2.768 | 2.522 | 5.258 | (5.29, 5.17, 5.31) | <0.01 | −0.017 |
| X = (1) Y = 2 | DSCT | 2.522 | 2.572 | 5.065 | (4.96, 5.15, 5.08) | <0.01 | −0.017 |
| X = (4) Y = 5 | ESLT | 2.966 | 2.857 | 5.729 | (5.68, 5.71, 5.80) | <0.01 | −0.009 |
| X = (3) Y = 4 | ESLT | 2.857 | 2.837 | 5.593 | (5.50, 5.58, 5.70) | <0.01 | −0.011 |
| X = (2) Y = 3 | ESLT | 2.837 | 2.558 | 5.336 | (5.28, 5.39, 5.34) | <0.01 | −0.020 |
| X = (1) Y = 2 | ESLT | 2.558 | 2.629 | 5.129 | (5.04, 5.26, 5.11) | <0.01 | −0.006 |
| X = (4) Y = 5 | MZTF | 2.968 | 2.832 | 5.724 | (5.79, 5.67, 5.71) | <0.01 | −0.012 |
| X = (3) Y = 4 | MZTF | 2.832 | 2.693 | 5.458 | (5.45, 5.42, 5.50) | <0.01 | −0.011 |
| X = (2) Y = 3 | MZTF | 2.693 | 2.431 | 5.084 | (5.03, 5.04, 5.19) | <0.01 | −0.021 |
| X = (1) Y = 2 | MZTF | 2.431 | 2.515 | 4.918 | (4.78, 5.04, 4.93) | <0.01 | −0.024 |
| X = (4) Y = 5 | STRS | 3.116 | 2.975 | 5.993 | (6.20, 6.00, 5.78) | <0.01 | −0.024 |
| X = (3) Y = 4 | STRS | 2.975 | 2.795 | 5.683 | (5.77, 5.65, 5.63) | <0.01 | −0.017 |
| X = (2) Y = 3 | STRS | 2.795 | 2.503 | 5.245 | (5.20, 5.20, 5.34) | <0.01 | −0.021 |
| X = (1) Y = 2 | STRS | 2.503 | 2.512 | 4.975 | (4.80, 5.11, 5.01) | <0.01 | −0.020 |
Figure 4MI of different layers when capturing a snapshot after one transaction.
Figure 5MI of different layers with varying the noise as well as the number of transactions between snapshots. (a) MI of layer i and j after two transactions. (b) MI of layer i and j after three transactions. (c) MI of different layers when capturing a snapshot after one transaction using a normal distributed noise instead of a uniform noise.
A t-test for the mean of paired samples analysis checking for the increase in MI between deepest layers compared to the uppermost layers. The lag indicates the three different configurations used to select the order book snapshots: after one transaction, two transactions, and three transactions.
| lag | t_stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.943 | 0.000287 |
| 2 | 9.895 | 0.000293 |
| 3 | 7.117 | 0.001030 |
The MI of layers i and j. The p-value of each MI calculation was estimated by shuffling the value of layer j 1000 times and counting the number of times that the MI calculation was higher than the one calculated with actual data.
| Stock | ALHE | DSCT | ESLT | MZTF | STRS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layers | MI | pv | MI | pv | MI | pv | MI | pv | MI | pv |
| 0.057 | <0.01 | 0.029 | <0.01 | 0.058 | <0.01 | 0.0276 | <0.01 | 0.040 | <0.01 | |
| 0.074 | <0.01 | 0.032 | <0.01 | 0.059 | <0.01 | 0.040 | <0.01 | 0.052 | <0.01 | |
| 0.095 | <0.01 | 0.063 | <0.01 | 0.101 | <0.01 | 0.068 | <0.01 | 0.087 | <0.01 | |
| 0.096 | <0.01 | 0.066 | <0.01 | 0.095 | <0.01 | 0.076 | <0.01 | 0.099 | <0.01 | |
The mutual information (MI) measured between layers of the order book for all of the TA-35 stocks. The columns indicate the layers mentioned. For example, the top left cell shows the MI between layers 1 and 2 for ALHE stock.
| MI ( | 1_2 | 2_3 | 3_4 | 4_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALHE | 0.057 | 0.074 | 0.095 | 0.096 |
| AMOT | 0.099 | 0.109 | 0.187 | 0.205 |
| ARPT | 0.084 | 0.092 | 0.124 | 0.121 |
| AZRG | 0.099 | 0.116 | 0.118 | 0.130 |
| BEZQ | 0.046 | 0.053 | 0.079 | 0.084 |
| BIG | 0.091 | 0.111 | 0.138 | 0.162 |
| CEL | 0.062 | 0.082 | 0.136 | 0.137 |
| DEDR | 0.153 | 0.271 | 0.257 | 0.228 |
| DLEKG | 0.072 | 0.084 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| DSCT | 0.029 | 0.032 | 0.063 | 0.066 |
| ESLT | 0.058 | 0.059 | 0.101 | 0.095 |
| FIBI | 0.025 | 0.032 | 0.033 | 0.019 |
| FRUT | 0.078 | 0.111 | 0.158 | 0.138 |
| GZT | 0.062 | 0.080 | 0.104 | 0.113 |
| HARL | 0.093 | 0.080 | 0.125 | 0.133 |
| ICL | 0.088 | 0.091 | 0.128 | 0.141 |
| ILCO | 0.078 | 0.085 | 0.121 | 0.129 |
| LUMI | 0.283 | 0.415 | 0.502 | 0.490 |
| MLSR | 0.072 | 0.083 | 0.114 | 0.120 |
| MYL | 0.120 | 0.172 | 0.184 | 0.201 |
| MZTF | 0.028 | 0.040 | 0.068 | 0.076 |
| NICE | 0.042 | 0.067 | 0.106 | 0.110 |
| NVMI | 0.094 | 0.099 | 0.111 | 0.117 |
| OPK | 0.072 | 0.092 | 0.109 | 0.106 |
| ORA | 0.094 | 0.126 | 0.119 | 0.118 |
| ORL | 0.132 | 0.168 | 0.150 | 0.180 |
| POLI | 0.172 | 0.283 | 0.411 | 0.392 |
| PRGO | 0.124 | 0.127 | 0.148 | 0.130 |
| PTNR | 0.082 | 0.108 | 0.132 | 0.139 |
| PZOL | 0.062 | 0.077 | 0.136 | 0.144 |
| SAE | 0.153 | 0.133 | 0.174 | 0.168 |
| SODA | 0.093 | 0.078 | 0.138 | 0.133 |
| STRS | 0.040 | 0.052 | 0.087 | 0.099 |
| TEVA | 0.223 | 0.306 | 0.217 | 0.237 |
| TSEM | 0.214 | 0.189 | 0.123 | 0.150 |
A t-test for the mean of paired samples analysis checking for the increase in MI between the deepest layers and the uppermost layers using all of the TA-35 stocks.
| N | t_stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | 6.166 | <0.0001 |