Anshu Zhang1,2, Wenzhong Shi3,4, Chengzhuo Tong2, Xiaosheng Zhu2, Yijia Liu2, Zhewei Liu2, Yepeng Yao2, Zhicheng Shi5. 1. Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong. 2. Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong. 3. Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong. lswzshi@polyu.edu.hk. 4. Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong. lswzshi@polyu.edu.hk. 5. Research Institute for Smart Cities, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Motivated by the need for precise epidemic control and epidemic-resilient urban design, this study aims to reveal the joint and interactive associations between urban socioeconomic, density, connectivity, and functionality characteristics and the COVID-19 spread within a high-density city. Many studies have been made on the associations between urban characteristics and the COVID-19 spread, but there is a scarcity of such studies in the intra-city scale and as regards complex joint and interactive associations by using advanced machine learning approaches. METHODS: Differential-evolution-based association rule mining was used to investigate the joint and interactive associations between the urban characteristics and the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases, at the neighborhood scale in Hong Kong. The associations were comparatively studied for the distribution of the cases in four waves of COVID-19 transmission: before Jun 2020 (wave 1 and 2), Jul-Oct 2020 (wave 3), and Nov 2020-Feb 2021 (wave 4), and for local and imported confirmed cases. RESULTS: The first two waves of COVID-19 were found mainly characterized by higher-socioeconomic-status (SES) imported cases. The third-wave outbreak concentrated in densely populated and usually lower-SES neighborhoods, showing a high risk of within-neighborhood virus transmissions jointly contributed by high density and unfavorable SES. Starting with a super-spread which considerably involved high-SES population, the fourth-wave outbreak showed a stronger link to cross-neighborhood transmissions driven by urban functionality. Then the outbreak diffused to lower-SES neighborhoods and interactively aggravated the within-neighborhood pandemic transmissions. Association was also found between a higher SES and a slightly longer waiting period (i.e., the period from symptom onset to diagnosis of symptomatic cases), which further indicated the potential contribution of higher-SES population to the pandemic transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study may provide references to developing precise anti-pandemic measures for specific neighborhoods and virus transmission routes. The study also highlights the essentiality of reliving co-locating overcrowdedness and unfavorable SES for developing epidemic-resilient compact cities, and the higher obligation of higher-SES population to conform anti-pandemic policies.
BACKGROUND: Motivated by the need for precise epidemic control and epidemic-resilient urban design, this study aims to reveal the joint and interactive associations between urban socioeconomic, density, connectivity, and functionality characteristics and the COVID-19 spread within a high-density city. Many studies have been made on the associations between urban characteristics and the COVID-19 spread, but there is a scarcity of such studies in the intra-city scale and as regards complex joint and interactive associations by using advanced machine learning approaches. METHODS: Differential-evolution-based association rule mining was used to investigate the joint and interactive associations between the urban characteristics and the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases, at the neighborhood scale in Hong Kong. The associations were comparatively studied for the distribution of the cases in four waves of COVID-19 transmission: before Jun 2020 (wave 1 and 2), Jul-Oct 2020 (wave 3), and Nov 2020-Feb 2021 (wave 4), and for local and imported confirmed cases. RESULTS: The first two waves of COVID-19 were found mainly characterized by higher-socioeconomic-status (SES) imported cases. The third-wave outbreak concentrated in densely populated and usually lower-SES neighborhoods, showing a high risk of within-neighborhood virus transmissions jointly contributed by high density and unfavorable SES. Starting with a super-spread which considerably involved high-SES population, the fourth-wave outbreak showed a stronger link to cross-neighborhood transmissions driven by urban functionality. Then the outbreak diffused to lower-SES neighborhoods and interactively aggravated the within-neighborhood pandemic transmissions. Association was also found between a higher SES and a slightly longer waiting period (i.e., the period from symptom onset to diagnosis of symptomatic cases), which further indicated the potential contribution of higher-SES population to the pandemic transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study may provide references to developing precise anti-pandemic measures for specific neighborhoods and virus transmission routes. The study also highlights the essentiality of reliving co-locating overcrowdedness and unfavorable SES for developing epidemic-resilient compact cities, and the higher obligation of higher-SES population to conform anti-pandemic policies.
Authors: Jeremy Howard; Austin Huang; Zhiyuan Li; Zeynep Tufekci; Vladimir Zdimal; Helene-Mari van der Westhuizen; Arne von Delft; Amy Price; Lex Fridman; Lei-Han Tang; Viola Tang; Gregory L Watson; Christina E Bax; Reshama Shaikh; Frederik Questier; Danny Hernandez; Larry F Chu; Christina M Ramirez; Anne W Rimoin Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2021-01-26 Impact factor: 12.779